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If You Only Read One Habs Blog Post

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…make it this one.

Friend and fellow blogger @Habswatch once again hits pay dirt with an insightful and data-driven (read: not skewed by lazy opinion) piece.

No player has polarized Habs fans in recent memory like Carey Price has; you either love him to itty-bitty pieces, or you want his head on a pike. His ardent supporters say that he’s young, has elite talent and a growing body of work that will only continue to impress. They say his defense is the main reason for his failings. His critics say that he’s paid among the elite, has accomplished nothing at the NHL level and has fallen woefully short of lofty expectations.

In his piece, HabsWatch doesn’t only put Price’s 2013 season in to perspective, he puts his entire career in to focus in relation and context to his peers. The results may shock you, as they did for me.

If you want the real deal on Price, then I urge you to take 10 minutes to read HabsWatch’s piece. Drink in the evidence and then share it with your friends. I promise that it is well worth your time.

The bar has been set

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So what really happened in the 2013 post-season for the Habs?

From Pacioretty, Plekanec and Price to Desharnais, Markov, Gorges and Ryder, the veterans on this team did not accomplish enough good things collectively in order to have a deep playoff run. Simple as that. No player bashing, no nailing to the cross. A lot of guys were hurt, or playing hurt and as much as they refuse to use that as an excuse, the fact is no team can sustain the losses and injuries that the Habs did to key players and hum along like nothing happened…except for the Senators. The Habs veterans were average-to-below average and that doesn’t get it done in playoff time.

Here’s what you really need to know:

  • Senators goaltending outplayed Habs goaltending, to the tune of a .950 save percentage for Ottawa versus .870 for Montreal.
  • Ottawa scored an average of four goals per game, while the Habs chimed in with less than half of that total, at 1.8.
  • The Senators scored 13 third period goals to the Canadiens’ grand total of zero.
  • The Canadiens centermen scored a grand total of zero goals.
  • The officials stymied the Habs at least once in a very costly way.

Game, series, and season…over.

What may come as a relief is that the Canadiens missing ingredients are painfully obvious and I think we can expect Marc Bergevin to remove some of the redundancies on the Habs current roster and fill the voids with what he, and the rest of us believe to be the missing pieces.

With the team set up with talented youth and a General Manager who seems to have a firm grasp on the realities of the league in 2013, there’s very little doubt that Marc Bergevin has a cogent plan to continue to remake his team. Even the most passive fan has been able to identify areas where the Habs need lots of help:

Size with toughness and scoring ability on the wings: The top nine forwards include the following names from the under-six foot clan: Plekanec, Desharnais, Gallagher, and Gionta. It’s hard to imagine the Habs charging in to 2013-14 with that many smaller bodies despite “how big they play”. 5’8” does not have the reach or power and dominance of 6’3”. To ignore this is to think yourself above the laws of physics, or that they don’t apply to the Habs. Dredge up any stat you like, but when everyone has long since come to the realization that small bodies wear out faster and more often than big bodies, the road map becomes clear. Even if the impact of physical dimensions of any given player is a point of debate, what the Canadiens do need both up front and on the back end is aggression and that typically that comes in larger packages. I’m not here to say that the Habs are criminally small and weak and fragile. While the Habs loss to the Senators is not specifically due solely to size, if you take a moment to scan the defense corps of the Habs division foes for next year, it isn’t a stretch to think that adding some beef and snarl up front is unreasonable. Of course, one-dimensional thugs need not apply, and Bergevin strongly hinted at this in his post-mortem press conference. Although we can be fairly sure that Michel Therrien would love to have one of those guys in his back pocket, it appears unlikely that Bergevin will waste a roster spot on a goon.

Universally respected as he rightfully is by his teammates, coaches, opponents, the media and fans, With Gionta’s contract going in to its final year, it’s not impossible that Bergevin could move the captain at some point once he has proven to be healthy and productive again. It would be an unpopular move to trade him but forward-thinking GMs do unpopular and bold things on the road to success. Fact is, they could use a right-handed, large body to compliment Pacioretty and Rene Bourque on the wings. Gionta may be an interesting acquisition to somebody out there who needs leadership, and scoring ability.

Clarity at Center: There’s a jigsaw puzzle down the middle. Tomas Plekanec is the Habs most complete forward, and until he can be adequately replaced on the fly, and not under an assumption or hope that Eller or Galchenyuk can replace him, there’s little sense in talking about trading him. That said, Plekanec is currently the Habs best centerman and would fetch the most return on the trade market. At 31 years old, he’s not getting any younger, and Bergevin appears to be in to moving “aging assets” before they’re worthless, but trading Plekanec now is premature, lest the Habs GM invoke the “unpopular, but bold” clause. Lars Eller was on the verge of breaking out in this shortened season. 2013-14 will be labeled as, and expected to be his full coming out party, but he is not yet ready to take on all of the duties currently held by Plekanec. We know Desharnais is both one dimensional, yet secure with his new deal, so the Habs will have to work around his, umm, shortcomings. Alex Galchenyuk remains the wild card. Drafted as the team’s future frachise #1 centerman, the 19-year-old spent nearly all of his rookie season on the wing, and with good reason. Though he led the team in +/-, that is the single most misleading stat in hockey. Rely on that number at your own peril. However, he cannot be counted on defensively just yet, especially when it comes to defensive zone faceoffs. Between his and Eller’s inability to take draws reliably, the Habs have much work to do, and until they get one, or both of them both up to speed, it makes Plekanec’s presence on the team a must.

Another top-four defenseman: This is a tricky one, but needs to be addressed. Andrei Markov’s play collapsed at even-strength in 2013; anyone with a pair of eyeballs could see this. He is no longer the team’s best defenseman, but is heavily relied upon nonetheless. He was very often caught behind the play after a bad pinch, and with ravaged knees, he no longer has the speed to recover, and once he gets back in to position, he is not physical enough to knock opposing forwards off the puck. Bergevin can get on his hands and knees and pray that Markov spends the summer strengthening his knee, and that Jarred Tinordi’s imminent arrival as a regular will be enough to save him from shopping for a pricey free agent, or trading assets to shore up the defense, but that’s a risky gamble. The blueline for next season is already crowded what with Subban, Gorges, Emelin (who may not be ready until November or later), Markov, Bouillon, and Diaz all but assured spots in the top seven (Weber and Drewiske won’t be back), which means that only one place remains for a kid like Tinordi. No upgrades have been made yet aside from the natural progression that young players demonstrate, and that’s no guarantee, either. For Habs fans who treat free agent frenzy like a free-for-all, this is sobering, disappointing news. If Bergevin decides to look outside the organization to make his defense better on the top two pairings, he’ll have a tough choice to make in terms of moving Markov or Gorges. Moving Bouillon is the easy call, but doesn’t create the hole needed to upgrade the top-four.

Iron in the bottom-six forwards: As a simple one-year band aid solution, Colby Armstrong won’t be back. Travis Moen disappointed many in 2013 on the heels of signing a four-year extension and may be moved as a result. But both players brought something to the table in terms of penalty killing and character. Bergevin will need to replace those traits, to the chagrin of the fancystat propeller heads.. Michel Therrien’s (and most fans, too) face turned unhealthy shades of greenish-purple when the Leafs and Sens (among others) took turns slapping the Habs silly in lopsided losses. In that respect it is the expectation of most fans that Bergevin fetch a player or two who can throw his fists. Therrien may be a changed man in front of the cameras and microphones, but I’d bet my last dime that he, too wishes he had at least one player with the ability to bust heads on a nightly basis. The rub is that players who can carry a regular shift (i.e. actually play hockey), yet acquit themselves well when the rough stuff starts don’t grow on trees, and Bergevin will need to decide how much this is truly a priority before investing time and energy in bringing in this sort of player.

The debate will rage all summer as to whether or not the real Canadiens were the team that streaked to a 26-9 record or the team that gave up 3.9 goals per game after clinching a playoff spot. That said, and whether it’s fair or not, expectations for the 2013-14 season are going to be sky-high for the Canadiens. Bergeron and friends will have no other mandate – both internally and externally from fans to build upon what was statistically speaking the best season from the bleu-blanc-rouge in 20 years. I hope you enjoyed drafting Galchenyuk at third overall last season because it will be the last time that they select that high based on merit for quite some time – at least that’s going to be the plan. Bergevin may not be able to make ALL of this changes required THIS summer, and no doubt this will piss off Habs fans who want it all right away. This year was like a honeymoon that ended with a nightmarish trip home. Fans will no longer be so willing to accept future first round exits if they are preceded by strong regular seasons, that much is plain and simple.

The Future is Here

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Playoff game #5

It just wasn’t meant to be.

The Habs were arguably the better team in four out of the five games, despite being decimated with injuries. In the end, the Senators got far superior goaltending, defense that didn’t surrender second chances and a big helping of opportunism. Of course, poor officiating played its part, but that falls down the list of reasons why the Senators advance while the Habs go home. In short: the Senators won fair and square. As I mentioned in Tuesday’s review, Habs fans now know what Capitals and Penguins fans feel like. Most fans are now realizing this, and it’s not a great feeling.

It is certainly disheartening to have watched the Habs outplay the Senators through the majority of the series, yet only reel off one win for their efforts, but it isn’t the Sens fault or problem that the Canadiens did not capitalize on their chances. They busted their asses, but lacked the size, grit and killer instinct to succeed at playoff time. At some point coach Therrien should have to answer why he chose to give ample minutes to some players who clearly didn’t deserve it, while others who carried the team’s offense sat and watched more than they should have.

This could have, and maybe should have gone differently, but plagued with injuries themselves, the Sens were able to get in to the playoffs, against all odds. As a result they were more than battle tested when they faced off against a Habs team that had lost its way. To the Habs credit, they aren’t using injuries as an excuse, though at this point common sense says there was nothing more that they could do to stop the bleeding, nevermind get a win.

There won’t be any finger pointing today. The Habs gave what they had to give but it just wasn’t enough. Not nearly enough. The first period push to save their season was effectively short-circuited by the the time Sens went up 2-0.

While fans streamed out of the Bell Center once the Sens took a 4-1 lead, they forfeited the chance to salute a team that basically jumped the shark in terms of regaining respect, and credibility league-wide after being a laughing stock for the last few years. Shame on them, spoiled, sullen ingrates that they are.

The Habs are a team with a tremendously bright future, and helmed by a strong management group the ship is in the right direction, full steam ahead. Still, it is more than disappointing to see a team that played so well through this shortened season fall apart so absolutely and completely both literally and figuratively.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Sabotage

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Playoff game #4

Through 40 minutes, the Habs had done everything right, resulting in a 2-0 lead. Then they took a page out of the Jacques Martin playbook and sat back to defend that lead through the third period. Predictably, it did not work out for them. Without going through the painful exercise yet again, here’s why I think the Habs lost:

We can complain about the officiating all we want. By the letter of the law, the Sens’ first goal was legit. The tying goal was rife with officiating blunders from the icing call, to not calling Turris’ interference with Price.

In the end none of this matters.

The Canadiens were their own worst enemy last night when they had been their own best ally for two full periods. Now with Eller, Gionta, Prust, Pacioretty, and Price (that we know of) either playing hurt or outright injured, the Habs face a huge uphill climb.

After being the better team in three of four games in this series so far, the Canadiens certainly deserve better, but the hockey gods don’t work that way. Those of us who remember 2010 know this all too well.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Wasted

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Playoff game #3

Anyone want to take a shot at this one because I sure don’t. On a Sunday that felt like a hot July afternoon, it was hard to drag myself in from the great outdoors to watch the game. It didn’t take long for my instincts to be proven right.

It was not a good night for the Habs as a group or individually; as they lost badly on the scoreboard and on the fight card. What a reversal from just two nights ago. Things plunged so deep in to the depths of hell that Tomas Plekanec had to play on the blueline, depleted of its regular crew through sheer nonsense. Every now and then, the Habs embarrass themselves by getting beat on the scoreboard badly, and with the rough stuff. It has happened in Boston, against the Leafs a couple times, and now against the Sens. It is not in the Canadiens’ interests to get wrapped up in such nonsense, but sometimes frustration boils over. It always ends in a predictable result though.

Tonight the Habs just weren’t ready. Carey Price will catch his share of the blame, but this gong-show isn’t on him. It’s on everyone. The Habs played stupid all night, and the refs didn’t help matters by letting things get out of control.

The Canadiens will respond, and Therrien will make changes to his roster, tactics and strategy. Will he have the nerve to make unpopular changes or will he simply shuffle deck chairs? Either way, Tuesday’s game four is as close as it gets to a must-win. Will Pacioretty decide to stop playing on the peritmeter? Will Desharnais do anything at all? Ryder? Will Subban recover after a terrible game? Can Price play lights-out again? Can the team avoid playing stupid hockey?

Tonight was a frustrating embarrassment on multiple levels but in the end, still only counts as one loss. If the Habs realize that shenanigans are not their thing and just stick to hockey, they’ll win more often than not, so expect a team that focuses on playing desperate hockey on Tuesday. All year the Habs org has touted their character and resilience, with good reason. If it’s truly legit, this loss will roll off their back.

If not, then summer’s right on the horizon.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Atonement

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Playoff game #2

Less than 24 hours after a depressing 4-2 defeat, the Habs had to gather themselves and play with a sense of desperation, lest they fall behind two games to none. But for that desperation to pay off, there had to be wrongs made right. Tonight, a few members of the Habs made up for suspect play over long and short stretches:

Carey Price. Way to shed the goat horns. He stood tall, made big saves, and bailed his teammates out of jams. He played like the Price that the Habs need and expect. He now needs to keep this up, no excuses.

Ryan White. It has been a rough year for the pesky grinder. A perceived unwillingness to learn from mistakes looked to have White banned to Neverland. He gets full credit for what was probably his best game in a Habs jersey; a goal, several big hits, and stayed relevant all night with his mouth. He too will have to straddle this fine line if he wants to remain in the lineup.

Michael Ryder. He’s been absent for a while, but he only needs one chance to make an impact. He did just that, burying his one big opportunity after some fine work by Rene Bourque and David Desharnais. Given the loss of Eller, Pacioretty and Gionta, Ryder needed to step up. At least for one night, he provided badly needed goal support.

Raphael Diaz. Lesser men would have played scared tonight after being labelled as the scapegoat for Eller’s injury, but he played with conservative poise and showed his character.

Travis Moen. The maligned veteran paired nicely with White to wreak havok on the Sens all night. Moen doesn’t have to fight to be effective. He just needs to be involved by throwing his weight around and dishing out a few facewashes.

While the fab five above made up for real and/or perceived shortcomings, there remains a whole slew of players who did their thing yet again. It should bring a huge smile to Habs fans faces that most of those players are under the age of 25. Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher were once again brilliant, and PK Subban was spectacular.

It’s a brand new series, but the Habs have the wind in their sails. They have been the much better team through two games, and they have been a terrific road team all year.

You are now free to enjoy your Saturday.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Not Good

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Playoff game #1

The game started well enough; the Habs skated hard, forechecked, took their shots at Craig Anderson…and then the Sens scored. Not an awful goal for Price to surrender with Erik Karlsson right on the doorstep, but it was certainly deflating.

But the Habs fought back, kept skating, kept shooting. That Anderson guy kept making saves. All of them. Suddenly, with a backhand shot that would make Vincent Damphousse proud, Rene Bourque tied the score. All seemed fine, and we had ourselves one heck of an entertaining game.

And then came Gryba.

Tattooing a defenseless Lars Eller in the head with his shoulder, leaving the Habs center bloodied and probably concussed, the air and electricity left the building. Sure the Habs scored on the resulting powerplay to take the lead, and continued to rain down shots on Anderson, but he was equal to the task. The Canadiens set a new team record in peppering Anderson with 27 second period shots; 50 for the game, but could only score twice. Amazing what a determined goaltender can do.

Enter Carey Price.

With his team dominating, all he had to do was not surrender any weak goals and game one would be theirs. Instead, he decided not to play the third period. All three goals were awful. The first went right though his legs. He got his glove on the second but it got by him anyway. The third was the result of a rebound that should have been steered in to the corner, but instead was punted directly in to the slot where a crashing Latendresse forced both himself and Subban to push the puck behind Price.

Poor focus. Poor rebound control. Poor resolve.

While certain Canadiens players were absent (hello Gionta, Ryder and Desharnais), the Canadiens were let down by their goaltender, who is paid and relied upon to deliver big saves in big moments. When the team was pouring its guts out (and in Lars Eller’s case – his blood), they needed Price to stand tall, and he simply did not. He failed, full stop. Price will have his share of apologists, who will try to once again pin the blame on everyone else aside from Price. Question their credibility, for they are not being honest with you, or with themselves.

Perhaps it’s for the best that they get right back to work tomorrow night. It leaves them with no time to dwell on this deflating performance from their most important player, but gives them just enough time to take a deep breath after an emotional game that saw one of their best players injured.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

All’s Well That Ends Well

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Regular season game #48

Canadiens coach Michel Therrien decided that resting key players was not as important as going all out to win the division. He did not rest any of his key players except for Carey Price, feeling that going for second place in the conference was the priority. As has been the case for the most part this year, his decision turned out to be the correct one.

Led by Lars Eller, Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher once again, the Canadiens regained a measure of confidence against the Leafs, who had inflicted the season’s worst beatings on the Canadiens. If Leafs forward Joffrey Lupul’s claim that the Leafs were the bigger and tougher team riled the Canadiens (despite the validity to the claim), then we can thank the injury prone big mouth for giving the Canadiens something to prove.

The Canadiens were clearly the better team all night, holding a listless Leafs team to just 17 shots in the entire game, including just one shot in the second period while they built a 3-1 lead. Once the Habs took a 4-1 lead early in the third period, the Leafs did what you’d expect. They tried to batter and pummel the Habs. Referees Wes MacAuley and Marc Joannette had to know that was inevitable; they cut off all antics at the pass, issuing game misconducts to both Frazer McLaren and Clarke MacArthur for things that would have otherwise been let go under different circumstances.

Fans always tell themselves whatever they need to in order to feel good about their team’s chances in a given situation. So if the Leafs and Habs do end up playing each other next week, both sides will have supporting arguments that seem entirely valid in their own minds. If you’re a Leafs fan, you tell yourself that you won the season series 3-2, including a 2-1 season-opening game in enemy territory, and two humiliating beatdowns in which they outscored the Canadiens 11-1. You tell yourself that the bigger Leafs will quickly wear down the smaller Canadiens. If you’re a Habs fan, you say that you won the final game of the year in convincing manner, that there is little connection between head-to-head regular season success and playoff success, that the Canadiens were fundamentally sound for most of the season while the Leafs were not, despite their winning record.

We don’t know who the Habs will play yet, but it has to provide Habs fans with a substantial measure of relief that the Canadiens won their last two games by a combined score of 8-3 when previously to that they were unable to do anything right. They look playoff-ready, which is the most important thing. Now we find out if the Canadiens perceived lack of size will be a problem, or if they will able to dig deeper and buck conventional wisdom.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

The Comforts of Home

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Regular season game #47

Tonight’s game against the Jets had two distinct flavors to it. The first 40 minutes saw the Jets’ larger forwards have their way in the Habs’ end, giving the defense fits. Another collapse looked imminent. As has become recent tradition, the Canadiens D seemed too willing to give up odd-man rushes and full-on breakaways. Indeed, it is a concern when callup Jarred Tinordi was the most effective player in the defensive zone.

With a 2-1 lead heading to the third, and with their playoff hopes on life support, the Jets got the news that they had to know was coming. Both the Rangers and Senators won, dashing their playoff hopes for good. Whether the Jets sagged, or the Habs showed some urgency, aided by some powerplays that allowed the Habs to at least temporarily fire up the scoring machine that had worked so well through 40 games, the game tilted heavily in the Habs favor.

With fourth place in the Eastern Conference now the lowest the Habs can finish, if I were Michel Therrien, I would take a pre-emptive wiz on the CBC’s Habs/Leafs parade and make Saturday’s regular season finale as unimportant as I possibly could. I would take the hype right out of the game. The Habs don’t need it. Regardless of the outcome, the Leafs will win the season series and take that advantage to the bank, and it only brings the possibility that some Habs regulars could get further banged up, or hurt altogether. After all, when a team boasts such hockey luminaries as Colton Orr, Frazer McLaren, and Mark Fraser, why allow these glorified goons one last opportunity to take cheap shots at the Habs more important players? They’ll likely play very sparingly, or not at all in the playoffs, so any “discipline” that may be doled out by Shanaban would be totally ineffective. In short, Price, Plekanec, Markov, Ryder, Gorges, Prust, Gionta and Bouillon all get to watch the game from the press box while Bulldogs fill the void.

Tonight’s game saw the Habs show more push-back and spark than they have in a couple of weeks. Good news indeed, but the best news – by far – is that Carey Price looked like Carey Price. He made several big stops when the Jets were up 1-0, and could have given the Habs the confidence they needed to forge ahead without the fear of a softy going in behind them. If Price has indeed reasserted himself and found his game once again, it can be nothing but bad news for whoever the Habs face in the first round. But before we get ahead of ourselves, the defensive coverage that the Habs have been displaying lately was not much better tonight. The Coaching staff still has more work to do, starting with giving some tired legs time to recuperate.

There’s one more game to go, but with any luck it will be but a mere formality.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

You Can Cry if you Want To

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Regular season game #46

If you’re a results-oriented fan, then this game was just another in the recent string of games in which the Canadiens walked away empty-handed. If you’re a glass half-full kind of person, then you’ll say that the Habs took a positive step forward by not being blown out for a change by showing some fight in not imploding when they fell behind 3-0. The only real tangible bit of good news tonight is that the Bruins lost, meaning the Canadiens still have an outside shot at actually winning the division.

But back to the Habs, and that pesky issue of falling behind 3-0 early in the game. Most blamed the refs, but the refs don’t kill penalties. Nor do the Habs for that matter. They need to stop this habit of playing themselves out of games so early. It’s killing them.

The fact is that the Devils were 1-7-6 against the Northeast division this season, and were playing their first game since being eliminated from playoff contention. That didn’t stop them from bottling up the Canadiens and holding them to just 21 shots in a game that the Habs really needed to win. The Canadiens now face a tough road if they want to clinch home ice advantage in the first round; they will need to reel off three out of a possible four points against a desperate Jets team, and the Maple Leafs, who have slapped the Canadiens silly for the most part.

For whatever reason the Canadiens are a heavy-legged bunch, save for  some young players, and on that note, it’s time for Coach Michel Therrien to consistently give Lars Eller more ice time over the sputtering David Desharnais, who has done next to nothing since signing his big contract. Tonight, both Alex Galchenyuk and Lars Eller had more ice time than Desharnais, and we can only hope that it’s a trend that continues long in to the future. Staying on the ice time beat, somebody needs to explain to me why Andrei Markov was the Habs top minute man tonight, topping even P.K. Subban? Anyone? No? Ok, moving on.

To this point, I’ve been only mildly concerned about their recent slide. While the optics of the last six games are horrid, it is this game that truly has me concerned. After two days of practice, the Habs said all the right things and presented a united front that they were going to be a refocused and tighter group. If tonight’s effort was what they were talking about, then they can feel free to go back to the drawing board any time now.

During this slide, I’ve encouraged fans to remain patient and let the Coaching staff pull the team out of their first real slide of the year, and I’ll continue to do so. With that being said, I’ll no longer hold it against the fan who wants to hit the panic button, for they have been given no reason not to.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

 


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