Last month, the boys over at Habseyesontheprize.com posted a brilliant breakdown of the stats between Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. It’s too long and in-depth to even tell you about the conclusions, and besides, it’s so well done that it deserves to be read on its own. Take the 10 minutes to check it out, it’s worth it.

I wanted to provide a little update on the stats today, though I am certainly not going to get in to as much depth as they did. This is the quick & dirty edition. I’m also going to go as far back as December 19th, the day that Andrei Markov rejoined the team. That was the date that Habs fans pointed to as the game to which we will see the real Canadiens stand up and show themselves. Since then, Jaroslav Halak has started 11 games, and Price has started just 6.

Before I start with the details, I want to make it known that I don’t care who starts for the Canadiens, so long as each gets their fair chance. I also want it to be known that I don’t care which one is traded, so long as the Canadiens are a better team AFTER the deal than before it, and for many years thereafter. Also for the record: I reject the argument that you can’t trade the 5th overall draft choice. We just acquired the 4th pick in the same draft year as Price in Benoit Pouliot, so let’s not say that these types of selections can’t be moved.

Here are their stats since December 19th, the day Andrei Markov returned:

So what do we make of these numbers? Do we want to start looking at quality of opponent. We could, but I think that’s becoming a lame-duck argument. In the East, there are really only 4 good teams: the Sabres, Devils, Penguins and Capitals. Everyone else is very up-and-down, and not much better than any other team among the other 13 teams. But just for fun, let’s take a look. Price played the Capitals and Sabres in his last 6 games, and because the team in front of him is not that good, he lost both, including a 1-0 loss to the Sabres in which Price was terrific, posting a .971 save percentage. If one goalie in the league was going to be better that night, it had to be Ryan Miller, who, in my opinion is the hands down Vézina Trophy winner at this point. On the flip side, Halak played the Devils twice, who are notorious for beating the Canadiens each and every time. In fact, the Canadiens just won a Friday game in New Jersey for the first time since 1989. Martin Brodeur simply owns the Canadiens. That said, Halak went 1-0-1 vs the Devils, posting a .969 save percentage in the win, and a .929 save percentage in a 2-1 overtime loss. Halak took 3 pts, while Price took none. Easy to say that Halak wins this battle, and if you’re the type that is all about points, no matter how they come, then Halak is your guy. I’ll give Halak the slight edge, because the end result DOES matter, but Price did everything he could to give the Canadiens a chance to beat the Sabres at home.

The numbers are good across the board for both goaltenders. Both face a lot of rubber, and both are very efficient at stopping the puck.  Price seems to be steadier overall, with less fluctuation in his save percentages. Halak, meanwhile, seems to be very very good (and has been perfect in 3 instances in the past month) in wins, and is not very good in losses. The similarities are striking. Halak’s save percentage is .23 higher than Price’s when the Canadiens win, while his save percentage in losses is .25 lower. Again, it says that when Halak is good, he’s nearly unbeatable. When he’s bad, the Canadiens are almost guaranteed to lose.

So where does this leave us? At this point it comes down to intangibles. Many of which we are not privy to. How do the rest of the Canadiens view their 2 young goaltenders, behind closed doors…beyond the clichés? What is their body language like on the ice after they surrender a goal? Is one more likely than the other to give up a bad goal? Lately, I believe Price has given up more weak, demoralizing goals than has Halak, and does not seem to have the same level of 60-minute focus as Halak. That is totally subject to interpretation and personal opinion/bias. Halak’s rebound control is not as sharp as Price’s (though Price’s has not been so hot lately either; the goalie coach is not helping either improve in this area). It’s an adventure when either leave their crease.

As the Canadiens struggle to stay in the playoff race, they have no choice but to go with the goalie that is delivering wins on a more consistent basis. Right now that guy is Halak. Today being the Monday after a good weekend for the Canadiens, and Halak in particular, I was not surprised to see Montreal Gazette veterans Dave Stubbs and Jack Todd throw their support behind Halak for the #1 job. TSN’s Bob McKenzie is a regular guest on the Team 990 and also said that he believes that Jacques Martin has no choice but to let Halak run with the #1 job until he blows it. And no, a loss does not mean he’s blown it. It is at the same time fascinating and sad that in 79 career games with the Canadiens, Jaroslav Halak has NEVER been allowed to start the next game following a loss. Never. How can a team properly evaluate what a goaltender’s mental constitution is if they do not allow him the opportunity to bounce back from a loss? Many feel that Halak was robbed of the chance to get the Canadiens in to the playoffs 2 seasons ago in the last game of the season vs the Leafs. Halak had carried the ball for the injured the Cristobal Huet, but former coach Guy Carbonneau decided to go with Huet when he was ready to go for that last game. Huet folded like a cheap tent, and the Canadiens were eliminated, blowing a big 3rd period lead. Last season, many will say that Halak’s performances are what got the Canadiens in to the playoffs last season, and was again denied the chance to play. The Canadiens were swept by the Bruins, and I don’t think Halak would have done anything to prevent that. Gainey decided to let Price play, in order to let him gain more experience in meaningful games. I’m not sure how much experience was gained in those 4 embarassing losses.

This season is a different story, however. Both Price and Halak are restricted free agents, and both deserve to prove what they’re made of. Halak has been repeatedly put in to a corner, and essentially told that he’s not allowed to screw up. And for the most part, he hasn’t. When he loses, Carey Price gets the next start, and, presumably, the chance to retake the #1 job. He has not done that, despite being very good in 3 of his last 6 starts. I guess that what I’m saying is that it is time to let Halak show what he can do. The Canadiens would only be doing themselves a disservice by not getting the full picture. They’d also be cheating themselves if Halak can further raise his trade value from where it is. Or maybe they do an about-face and decide that they want to keep Halak and move Price for a King’s ransom.

This does not mean that I think Price is the obvious choice to be sent out of town. Ditto for Halak. Gainey has a very tough choice on to make, and, frankly, one that 29 other General Managers would kill to have the privilege of making. It’s still unlikely to me that Gainey will part ways with Price given how much he has supported him, but he did also say that Guy Carbonneau was the best move he had ever made, only to fire him a couple months later. Gainey has to weigh the relative performance of each goalie vs what they’ll probably be making next season vs what either asset can bring back to the team. If he’s approaching this with an open mind, and if he finds that moving Price makes most sense, then that’s what he has to do. His job is to improve the Canadiens, regardless of the names on the back of the jersey, and regardless of what it means to his reputation.

These are decisions I’m glad I don’t have to make. You know, I think we can all agree that Canadiens fans have many other problems to dissect, but goaltending is not one of them. But it is fun to talk about, isn’t it?

UPDATE (1:03 p.m.): Sometimes when you post a blog like this, you hope that you’re not going to get slammed for it. But I’m relieved that Elliotte Friedman of Hockey Night in Canada also now believes that Gainey needs to consider trading Price. Again – consider, not absolutely trade.