With 6 picks in the first 90 overall selections at this month’s entry draft in New Jersey (pick #25 in the first round, picks #34, 36 and 57 in the second round, and picks #71 and 88 in the third round), Director of Scouting Trevor Timmins and his team (overseen by General Manager Marc Bergevin) have a lot of flexibility, should they decide to do something other than simply go buck-wild at the draft board.
It should be noted up front that Bergevin is an extremely strong proponent of building through the draft, and it’s more than likely that the Canadiens brass will let Timmins do what he does best and continue to stock the cupboards with young players with strong NHL potential.
For argument’s sake, let’s pretend that Bergevin and Timmins are considering their options. Would he bundle one or more of his picks in order to move up in the draft? Would he relish the opportunity to trade down and garner even more picks? Would they leverage some of their picks in a package with current roster players to land NHL-ready talent?
As vocal as he has been about using the draft to build the Habs, it’s likely that they are open-minded enough to consider what’s behind doors A, B, or C, should the opportunities present themselves.
Door Number 1 – Movin’ on Up
Let’s forget moving up in to the top ten. Despite rumors that Colorado and Edmonton are fielding offers for the first and seventh overall picks respectively, this sort of thing is to be expected. Both are teams that have been drafting high for years now with no real results to show for it and are simply fishing for a sucker GM who will give them the moon and stars for their pick. No doubt it would take the Habs first rounder, a second rounder, a strong prospect and a young roster player to even begin the discussion with either team. Pass. Timmins could decide to pick on Columbus, who currently hold the 14th and 19th picks in the first round. They too are rumored to be shopping their picks, no doubt in an attempt to help them be a sure-bet playoff team in 2013-14. It should also be noted that all three teams have recently had major shakeups in the front office. What GM doesn’t want to make a name for himself by being a mover and shaker at the draft?
While moving up may be a difficult task, The Canadiens do have the ammo needed to make a jump to anywhere from three to ten picks ahead of where they currently sit. They would only do this if they felt that there was a player that they absolutely HAD to have. In return, they’d have to give up their first rounder, and one of their early second round picks. I have all kinds of faith in the work of Trevor Timmins, so I’d be ok with this.
Door Number 2 – Quantity over Quality
It’s no longer a secret that you need a high volume of high-round draft picks if you want to be able to build a strong feeder system (see here for the painstaking details Part one | Part two). Given how the chances of finding an NHL player drop steeply after the first top-ten selections, they fall off the face off the earth in round two. This being the case, it would not make sense to trade down to scoop up more picks. If there’s a ‘but’ to this option, it’s that the Canadiens have one of the few guys able to find treasure outside of the first round. Want proof? P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin, (the departed) Michael Ryder, Gabriel Dumont, (the soon to likely be departed) Yanick Weber and Ryan White were all drafted by the Habs outside of the first round. A mixed bag to be sure, but even if the list ended with Subban, Timmins has done a spectacular job of finding big talent outside of the agreed upon “elite”.
Do I like the “trade down” option? Not really, despite Timmins’ strong record. The only thing better than Timmins with a pocket full of draft picks is Timmins with a pocket full of early round draft picks.
Door Number 3 – Horse Trading
Ah, the draft day deal, otherwise known as the armchair GM’s favorite move. I remember being at the 2009 draft in Montreal. The only time the crowd was louder than when the Habs selected Louis Leblanc that night was when Bettman stepped up to the podium to announce the consummation of a trade (it was the Pronger-to-Philly deal).
Would the Canadiens consider moving their picks to bring in NHL-ready players (by this I mean established players of any age)? I think it’s all but certain that the Canadiens will never, under this administration, trade top picks for aging players. In a year where the salary cap is about to drop, there’s virtually no chance that the Canadiens will take on salary in exchange for cost-controlled assets. I find it doubtful that they’d trade picks for players of any calibre who are even approaching UFA status. What may be plausible is trading picks for young talent on entry-level deals who are either in need of a change, or their team badly covets a player from this year’s draft.
This option still runs counter to everything that Bergevin has said and counter to everything that today’s NHL is about: cheap, talented youth. The only option among the three above that makes any sense is that moving up in the draft without costing the organization any extra assets.
What say you?