This roller coaster season has not come to a close yet, and here I am already thinking about the 2010-2011 season. Yes, I know, I have a post season to look forward to, and even though I have an eerily good feeling about the Canadiens, why am I rushing to even thinking about next season?
Because I can. Because I want to. And because deep down, I know you want to as well.
By now we all know that most of the heavy lifting to rebuilt the Canadiens was done in the summer of 2009. Bob Gainey took the crowbar and dynamite to the team and gave it the most radical face lift any team has ever seen in such a short period. In doing so, he spent a ton of money and cemented the look of the bleu-blanc-rouge for years to come. What his spending spree ensured is that the Canadiens would be minor players during the free agent feeding frenzy for the foreseeable future. Rest assured that this will not stop Canadiens fans from playing the role of General Manager. Whether it’s summer boredom, ignorance of cap realities, or some combination of both, fans will undoubtedly have players coming in and out of the organization all summer long.
My take is that this current edition of the Canadiens are a good team with gusts up to being a very good team for a very short time. They are certainly not a great team, as we have seen them play many terrible games this season. They have dark horse potential, and to be sure, any of the top four teams are probably not looking forward to playing the Canadiens, who have been one of the better teams in since the Olympic break. No team with lofty expectations wants to tempt fate by facing a team with extremely good goaltending and that has a reputation for being a 1st round giant killer in the playoffs.
Where it will get interesting is how Pierre Gauthier goes about improving his club. Canadiens fans are notorious for over-valuing their own players. Up and down the lineup, each player has his ardent supporters. That said, Canadiens fans have 2 choices:
1- Keep the roster as in tact as much as possible. That would mean using what limited cap room there is to bring back UFAs Plekanec, Metropolit, Darche, Moore and the slew of restricted free agents that the team has: Price, Halak, Sergei Kostitsyn, Tom Pyatt and Benoit Pouliot. I’m sure it would not take long to find someone who insists that giving this group one more year to gel is all that is needed to turn it in to a contender. I can appreciate, and even admire that, but more often than not, these people are thinking with their hearts and not with their heads.
Many would say that:
- with the stress of contract negotiations out of the way, Plekanec can focus on hockey and be even better than he has been this season,
- That with another year of maturity, the Kostitsyn brothers would be even more confident and consistent,
- That Pouliot has found a home and can be counted on for 30 goals,
- That Subban will come in and vastly improve the blue line (at a cheap price!),
- That O’Byrne will continue to improve,
- The list goes on and on, and I haven’t even touched on the goaltending.
The reality of the situation, at least in my mind is that while some players will indeed improve, others will falter and stumble, and others will show no growth at all. The net result is that the team’s collective output will mostly match what it is today. That’s just the way it works. It’s extremely rare that a team has all of its players living up to their potential (and their contract) at the same time, for the duration of the season.
2- Rely on Gauthier’s continued use of the jackhammer. One of the toughest things to do when trying to build a great team is to take a good hard look at what you have and decide who should be moved in order to upgrade at a certain position. Always remember: you have to give up something in order to get something. In the hearts and minds of fans, the ties that bind usually take hold, and people do not want to part with their favorites for some unknown quantity.
With regards to the goaltending, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who will complain about it. But you will find those who will insist that one of the Canadiens good young goalies has to be traded in order to upgrade somewhere else (I dispute that claim. The Canadiens greatest strength is the tandem of Halak and Price. While I’m not completely opposed to one of the two being moved in the near future, the return better be of the staggering variety).
Let’s say that Pierre Gauthier has an opportunity to add a top-6 forward. A big one. A good one. With a reputation for gritty play, and big goals in big moments. Which of the Canadiens current top-6 forwards would you bump to make room for this new acquisition? We know it won’t be Cammallieri, Gionta or Gomez (unless a huge contract is sent back in return). It won’t be Plekanec if he’s about to sign a long-term contract. It likely won’t be Pouliot who has the potential to deliver a high return at a cheap price. That leaves Andrei Kostitsyn (who also has the potential to score 30+ goals) as the one guy in the top-6 who could be moved. That’s the type of tough decision that awaits Gauthier, if he chooses to go down that road. Add to that that there are those who believe that Pacioretty will be ready next year after being sent back down to Hamilton this season. Isn’t he supposed to be an impact player among the top-6 as well though? If he goes to the 3rd line, you’re faced with the same dilemna, albeit to a much lesser degree. Who gets bumped? I think we’d all agree that Sergei Kostitsyn has found a niche on the third line with Travis Moen and Dominic Moore, who currently rides shotgun with them. Perhaps he is allowed to walk as an unrestricted free agent and Pacioretty simply slots in there. But wait! A lot of people credit Moore with helping this team turn around; as being the glue that has finally bonded the 3rd and 4th lines. Should he not be brought back next year? We’d all also agree that Pacioretty is better off in Hamilton than playing sparse minutes on the 4th line with either Lapierre, Darche, Metropolit (if he’s kept around), Bergeron or Tom Pyatt. All told, the lion’s share of the wiggle room lies with the bottom-6 forwards, not the top-6.
What I’m saying is that keeping this group together for the most part, with a couple of minor moves on the bottom lines or on the 3rd defense pairing is likely all we are going to get. Are you satisfied with that? In your mind, is that enough to send the team to the next level?
My personal view is that even with a mostly healthy lineup, this team is still not among the league’s elite. The Blackhawks, Capitals and Sharks are still more than one notch above the Canadiens, goaltending woes aside. While I think the Canadiens can be a very good team that can be very entertaining, they are still 1 big skilled centerman, and a legitimate top-2 defenseman away from challenging for the Cup (Considering it’s been more than 20 years since we’ve seen a big skilled centerman play for the Habs, this is unlikely to change any time soon, especially with Gomez and Plekanec reportedly in the mix for the next several years). They are a whole lot of consistency away, as well as a truckload of killer instinct away from being among the elite. Consistency can be preached, coached and practiced. I’m not sure where killer instinct comes from, but I’m certain that it doesn’t come from Jacques Martin.
Pierre Gauthier has the mandate to improve this team. If he chooses to let this team improve organically from within, then so be it. He may not even have a choice given his salary constraints, but if he wants to make the upgrades that are often necessary to move a team from good to great, he will have to make some very tough decisions. Bodies will be moved and some fans will undoubtedly be upset about it, especially if those moves backfire.
I’m not asking you to chime in with trade proposals and recommend free agent signings, but rather, decide if this is the team that you want to live and die with.
Pingback: Cowhide and Rubber » There’s Something to be Said for Blind Faith
A very interesting point Kyle. I think where we don’t agree is in how much money we actually need to shore up the roster. My calculation, and I understand you disagree, is this: we currently pay 3.75 for Laraque and Gill, that is for our 14th forward and our #6th defenseman. Say we get White (850k) and Subban (875K) in those roles next year. Then, to their salaries, we add the buyouts costs : 850K+875k+500K+750K= 2.975M for those same two spots, with superior players on both counts. And that’s if we can’t trade Gill (which I think is unlikely; I’m pretty darn sure the guy can be traded for some low pick or something).
I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised by the kind of contract Pleks will sign. And I say we live and die with this team next year; the jackhammer session, if needed, will come in 2011-2012 when all those contracts come off the books.
@RG – so much depends on what Plekanec gets. He’s going to eat up more than half of what’s available, leaving very little for everyone else. With Mara leaving, that frees up a million dollars, but that’s all. Youngsters like Lapierre would be retained at a low price; in fact, Gauthier won’t have much choice but to play a bunch of youngsters, which is why we will likely see Subban in the lineup, whether he’s ready for the NHL or not.
@Olivier – I don’t think the Canadiens want to buy any more players out. Laraque’s 1.5 million is bought out at 2/3rd value, and then the cap hit spread over 2 years; i.e. 500k next year and the year after. To add Gill’s buyout number would result in another 600k or so to the cap. In total, we would be looking at paying over 1 million dollars to guys just to stay away. To put that in perspective, 1 million dollars gets you a Glen Metropolit, or a Dominic Moore. If there is going to be any change in the current defense, it will have to be Hamrlik or Spacek. This will be the cost of keeping Plekanec and both goalies. Remember, you have to give up something of value in order to get something of value. Everyone fully appreciates what Hamrlik and Spacek did in Markov’s absence, but this will be part of the fallout of dealing with Gainey’s rebuild. He spent SO much money that it was inevitably going to force the Canadiens to move someone.
@Brian – I’m ok with signing both goaltenders. I’m sure an impact winger would be in the cards, but like I said, which of our current wingers are you ready to displace in order bring in another one? Your choices are Andrei Kostitsyn, Gionta, Cammalleri and Pouliot. One of them has to go (I don’t consider 3rd and 4th line players as “impact” players. And if Gauthier traded either goalie for a 3rd or 4th liner, he better have his Will updated and notarized!). This was the entire idea behind my article; that in order to upgrade this team to the next level, some good players will have to be shown the door.
Good stuff as usual Kyle. I’m going to have to comment with some ignorance regarding the state of the cap. I’m for signing both Price and Halak to 2 year deals each – one possibly to have on the roster as trade bait if not for great goaltender depth. What would /will / might the Flyers, Hawks or even the Caps to a lesser extent, give up to have one of our goaltenders right now. Could moving one of them yield an impact top 6 winger?
One of the big decision comes in defense. Their 6 current Dmen are signed trough next year and Subban, who is plundering and pillaging the AHL this year, will eat one of these guys lunch next year. My take: trade or buyout Gill. His main skill is PK, something the other 5 can do without problems. Subban coming in pushes Gorges out of the PP equation (a good thing) and also pushes this same Gorges in Gill’s spot, that is left side easy minutes defensive play at ES, three things at which he excels. Everyone wanna see Spacek or Hamrlik out, but I don’t buy it. These two have played the best opposition all year and have outperformed relative to the rest of the D. Gauthier (and Martin) know that.
At forward, the top-6 is set, for better or worse (unless Pleks walks, of course
). The question is, what of the supporting cast? The last few years, the habs have followed a pattern with their rookies: up-down while on the entry level contract, then a one-year qualifying one-way contract in which they decide whether they trade the kids (Chipchura, D’Agostini and Latendresse were dealt this way) or keep em (Lapierre, maybe). Looking at capgeek, there are 5 guys in that situation next year: Pyatt, SKost, Price, Trotter, Carle, and maybe Desharnais. Some of these guys will be lost to waiver if they get sent down next year, so the habs are in tough for deciding who stays and who goes.
I’ve included Price here, but of course they sign him and Halak.
A lot will be dictated by the raise Pleks gets. I don’t think the numbers will end up being such that Mara, (may be) Lapierre and others leaving simply offset that extra cap hit. Even if they end up off setting PG shouldn’t remain too close to the cap.
The two goalies should remain until such time that either personally don’t want to.
That leaves us with improvements via trade which, in answer to your last line, have to be found.