When an underachieving team has its back to the wall, and faces a huge uphill climb, it’s only natural to rally around that team when they rattle off some impressive wins. This is the case with the recent performance of the Habs.
Since trading a disgruntled Michael Cammalleri to Calgary, the team is a mediocre 3-2-2. Not nearly good enough to put them back in the playoff hunt, but optimism has been renewed since those 3 wins have come against the Conference-leading Rangers, the hated Leafs (in Toronto), and the mighty Red Wings. When the most recent victory sees the downtrodden Habs hanging a converted touchdown around the league’s best team’s neck, it’s easy – and sometimes fun – to get carried away that the turnaround is in fact upon us and that the Forum Ghosts are ready to lend a hand.
As the Canadiens blew off the preseason, most shrugged with indifference. In most years, I would have agreed – after all, didn’t Carey Price tell us to “chill”?. This year, however, I didn’t see a team building toward an identity, or establishing chemistry – I saw a team running out players that had no business being a part of a training camp for so long. It felt like the Habs were focused on squeezing as many dollars as they could from whatever time was allotted for preseason games. Once the regular season began, nothing changed. How could it given the lackadaisical approach given to the preseason schedule? The team that sputtered through the exhibition season fell flat in October, so much so that they became ensnared in the dreaded numbers game bear trap.
The “coveted” 8th place slot drifted further and further out of reach as the season reached the quarter pole, all the way to the point where the Habs were a distant and dismal 11 points out of 8th at mid-season. In other words – they’d need a miracle to claw back and grab that 8th playoff position.
The more pragmatic Habs fans were reading the writing on the wall as they were taking the Halloween decorations down and dusting off the Christmas season regalia. Yes, the regular season is 82 games, and 6 1/2 long months, but the reality is that you can scuttle your playoff hopes in the first month of action.
Thus was born the #failfornail campaign, a euphemism for tanking the season and grabbing the top draft pick at the 2012 entry draft. This slogan sticks in the craw of many fans, who want the Habs in the post-season dance, no matter what. After all, you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs, n’est pas? Never mind that no 5th-8th seed teams have won the Cup since 1995 when Braveheart was the reigning Best Picture winner and Gangta’s Paradise was dominating the radio waves. The Devils won the Cup that year, and it was during a shortened 48-game season, meaning that without having to endure the full 82-game grind, conditions were ripe for a team to win the Cup without starting on home ice. Even at that, the Devils were on the cusp of becoming a dominant league power, not a bubble team. The ’93 Habs were the last team to win the Cup without home ice to start the playoffs in a full season, but again, it should be noted that the Canadiens were a 102-point team that year and were in a stacked division, and were not a bubble team.
In short, bubble teams don’t win anything. In a town with a history like Montreal’s, an 8th place finish is nothing short of a platitude.
As a believer in history and trends, I’m tired of the Habs going in to the playoffs with the “plucky underdog” label. The dire reality is that if you want to win the Cup in the modern era, you need home ice advantage, at least to start the playoffs. The 2006 Oilers are a nice story, but that’s all they are – a nice story. If they had a healthy Dwayne Roloson for game 7, things may have been different, but he was hurt, and they lost. There are no moral victories to be found in game 7 of the Cup Finals, and the Oilers have been rebuilding ever since.
This season has 3 possible outcomes for the Habs:
1- They buck history to “rise together” to grab the 8th playoff spot, despite overwhelming odds. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.
2- They make a brave charge for 8th, but fall short. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.
3- They trade their available assets before the deadline, restock the draft pick and prospect cupboard by moving guys like Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Chris Campoli, Tomas Kaberle, in an attempt to do the one thing they haven’t done since the fluke of the 2005 draft (and previously the 1984 draft): draft in the top 5 and secure a franchise centerman.
When you weigh the team’s needs vs the daunting mountain of history that lies in in their path, the “smart” thing to do for the team’s future success would be to cut bait, let nature take its course and rebound hard next year.
Options 1 and 2, in my mind (and I know I’m not alone) represent a waste of time that although would be exciting for a couple months, would ultimately be a step back for the team. As Division and Conference rivals continue to improve, this is the year to make a huge leap forward in narrowing that gap, if not closing it altogether. Smart teams in today’s cap era build upon a foundation of young, cheap talent that can only come from good drafting. They do not build with pricey free agents. In terms of personnel in the organization, the Canadiens have one of the best evaluators of amateur talent in Trevor Timmins. Give him one year where, in a deep draft, he can lay claim to several high-end prospects and Habs fans will reap the rewards for many years to come.
I’m not naive enough to believe that a team of professional athletes are going to roll over and die. They just aren’t wired that way. With the amount of skill on this Habs team, their current position in the standings defies logic, and in that vein it’s not inconceivable that they could at least turn things around just enough to make everything look respectable. Like the thrilling run to the Eastern Conference Finals a couple years ago, I still believe snatching 8th place and missing out on the opportunity to solidify the future is nothing but a smokescreen that while exciting for a time, really sets the team back. It sparks false hope and conjures up delusions of grandeur.
Now, if only the shareholders would agree to forgo playoff revenue *just once*, the path would be so much easier for Geoff Molson and Pierre Gauthier.