The Conundrum

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If it was a secret, it’s not anymore. Actually, it was never a secret; the signs were there from the very beginning, but most chose to ignore them.

For those still unaware, the Canadiens season has been, and remains in jeopardy. Truthfully, it’s been on life support since Halloween. No, that’s not a typo. On the morning of November 1st, the Canadiens were in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, a mere 2 points out of a playoff spot, and very few fans were concerned with the situation (I was). If that isn’t grounds for “life support”, then let’s call it a gestating illness. There was a lot of nonchalance among the fanbase, despite what historical precedent showed to be the harsh reality. That reality said that being outside of the top 8 on November 1st meant a tough climb to get back in. Yes, November 1st is awfully early to pronounce any conclusions for how the season will end, but history was already against the Habs.

Fast forward to January 2012, and the Canadiens have dug themselves down to 12th place in the East, 7 big, fat, bloated points out of the playoff picture. In short: they went in the wrong direction. If things were unsettling back on Halloween, they must be bleak now. Or are they?

Unbeaten in 2012 (nyuk nyuk nyuk), the Habs appear to be a new team. As Will pointed out in his piece yesterday: “early returns suggest this two-game winning streak is more than just a fluke“. Two games is certainly a short sample, but the attitude and tempo appears to be contagious. They no longer sit on leads, they no longer have poor body language, and they no longer look like the stifled, frustrated, crippled group they were under former Coach Jacques Martin. And not to be overlooked: they are no longer boring to watch. We all reserve to right to reevaluate our opinions after more games against tougher teams are in the books, but we are starting to see the team that we thought we had when it was assembled back in 2009 (and tinkered with ever since).

The big question today is whether or not this modest turnaround is “too little, too late”. The Canadiens need to rack up 53 points in their remaining 41 games to end the regular season with 92 points, which represents the average threshold needed to make the playoffs since the lockout ended. Not to be misplaced is the fact that the 8th place team is currently on pace for 94 points, making things yet again harder. The aforementioned 53pts in 41 games is a win percentage of .646 over the second half of the season. If that imposing number wasn’t enough, they have to do their damndest to earn those points in regulation and not allow Eastern opponents to grab “loser points”. That would only make the Canadiens’ task tougher still. Simply put, the Canadiens need to go at least 27-14 from here until the final siren blares on game 82. That would represent quite the reversal of fortunes, and would still only likely reap them the 8th slot in the East – if that. Making things even harder is that the Canadiens need to leapfrog 3 teams, or hope that other teams completely fall apart. The Panthers, Leafs, Sens, and now massively depleted Penguins are all common targets to have the trap door open under their feet. As of yet, none have officially fallen out of the playoff picture, and even if they do, there’s no guarantee that the Canadiens will play well enough to surpass them. Interesting to note that in the past 3 days, the Leafs beat the Wings, Senators took 3 of 4 points from the Flyers, and the Panthers beat the Canucks. If those teams are going to give up the ghost, they aren’t going to do so quietly.

Here’s where The Conundrum rears its ugly head. Is it worth it for the Canadiens to play each of their remaining games like it’s the 7th game of the Cup finals? How much would they have left in the tank for the playoffs? Sure they’d be battle-tested, but they’d also be incredibly weary. Is it worth it for Pierre Gauthier to be a buyer at the trade deadline? Is it worth it to dump assets in a potentially futile quest to grab the 8th in the East? And given that only one Cup winning team since 1994 entered the playoffs without the benefit of home ice advantage, is all of the back-breaking effort really worth it? I would say no, it is not worth it. I would hate to go through a Habs-less spring, but this hamster wheel of mediocrity has to stop. Stakeholders in the team might disagree, as would those fans who say that “you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs“. Personally, I would allow nature to take its course, and I would trade away pending UFAs (unless Kostitsyn can be signed at the right price) for future prospects and draft choices. In the cap era, having good, young talent at a cheap price is the only way to have a perennial contender.

But what do April tee times mean for “interim” Head Coach Randy Cunneyworth? Quite simply, it would likely mean his termination, but is that not already inevitable? He’s already been thrown to the wolves by his Owner and by his General Manager. Short of long playoff run, I’m not sure that anything can secure his future as Coach of the Habs. As much as I like Cunneyworth, and as much as I believe he deserves every single opportunity to be this team’s long-term Head Coach, there’s every reason to believe that the Canadiens brass will bow to pressure from narrow minded media types and extremist fringe elements and opt yet again to take the path of appeasement rather than institute a meritocracy. That means that Cunneyworth’s future as a Coach is elsewhere, and for that reason I see no reason to sacrifice key parts of the future for what is already a virtual mission impossible.

What’s your take? Go for broke, or look to a brighter future, albeit one minus Randy Cunneyworth?

Bonus question: What if the players, as a group, tell Molson that they adore Randy Cunneyworth and want him to stick around permanently? What then? Appease the nose-out-of-joint lunatics, or keep the team happy?

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Learning to Walk Again

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“The best defense is a good offense.” – EVERYONE EVER

You’ve heard that generic sports cliche a million times but it’s one the Canadiens should have applied as an organizational philosophy LONG before they dug themselves into this playoff hope-abandoning hole they currently find themselves in. Though it’s a small sample size, the Habs seem to have chosen the fresh start a new year brings us all to implement the teachings of interim coach Randy Cunneyworth and have started winning games by playing the way they should have been playing all along…aggressively.

I gave Jacques Martin more support during his tenure with the Habs than most. I still believe he is a good hockey coach because you can’t be around league benches long enough in the NHL to win 613 games without being pretty damn good at what you do. Fact is, though, Martin’s philosophies didn’t mesh with the assets and skill set this team possesses and several would argue that at this point, the game has passed Martin by and his teachings are archaic. In Montreal, it always seemed like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Martin seemed to preach a “puck-possession style” for the sole purpose of appeasing a fan base that truly believes there can be harmony between on-ice success and an entertaining, offensive-minded style of play. The Habs were stunning incompetent when giving up the first goal and when having earned a lead, had a strong tendency to sit back and try to apply a “bend but don’t break” approach. Under Martin and his lingering mindsets that slowly but surely seem to be washing away, what was supposed to bend usually shattered.

It might be over-simplistic to say the Habs left their tough times and ineptitude on the beaches of Florida and just needed the ushering of a new year along with the return of a cult-favorite goal song for everything to finally click under Cunneyworth but early returns suggest this two-game winning streak is more than just a fluke. The team has taken slim one-goal leads into the third period against both Winnipeg and Tampa Bay but have gone on to uncharacteristically out-shoot their opponents by a combined 23-18 in the deciding period. This is coming from a team that has built a solid reputation of trying to hold on for dear life as they weather an assault from their opponents forechecking relentlessly to wash away those slim leads. As a Habs fan, it brings me great joy that the team has been able to taste the fruits of their new “be the aggressor” approach in the third period by out-scoring Tampa and Winnipeg by a combined 5-0 margin. While their ability to finish off an opponent in the third has been impressive of late, being able to overcome giving up the first goal in each game has been even more eye-opening and uncharacteristic.

This has always been a team built to play a fast, exciting, highly-skilled brand of hockey. For whatever reason, Jacques Martin always opted to install a restrictor plate on this high-performance sports car. It was a crime to try and stifle the obvious creativity of Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, PK Subban, Lars Eller and Andrei Kostitsyn and the finishing ability of Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty, Brian Gionta and Michael Cammalleri. If you have an elite goaltender behind you, support him by taking a “score more than opponent” approach rather than an “allow fewer than the opponent” mentality. No one thrives by fearing mistakes and even world-class goaltenders fall under that thinking.

This sudden epiphany of how to play winning hockey will likely prove to be “too little, too late” for this team and outside influences will likely end Randy Cunneyworth’s tenure as coach after the season but the team and organization should remember the current lessons being learned that are putting so many more smiles not only in the stands but on the Habs bench and putting points back next to their name in the standings. This off-season will be among the more critical in recent Canadiens history for many reasons but regardless of whether the team chooses to rebuild or simply re-tool, team harmony should be the primary concern in whatever direction Geoff Molson chooses to go.

Follow Me on Twitter @HeyMyNameIsWill

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Habs Don’t Need A Rebuild

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Let’s all take a deep breath, or twenty.

Do the the Habs stink? You bet they do. Tough to admit, especially when they are “only 3 points out of a playoff spot” but you are what your record says you are, so yes – right now, the Habs stink. How did they get to this damp and sullen place so quickly? In this blogger’s view, two solid years of poor strategic coaching, coupled with non-existent tactical coaching, questionable development of youth and inept managerial moves have crippled this team. Ownership has a good amount of stink on it as well for placing blind faith in a team that was hired to keep corrupted and brainwashed masses content.

The team was never retooled properly following the collapse and subsequent mass exodus of 2009. Jacques Martin was brought in to breathe new life in to the team, as well as to bring a level of professionalism behind the bench that had been missing for years. Surely he had a hand in selecting the players that they eventually traded for, and signed during that summer’s free agency period. Why on God’s green earth they opted for small, offensive-minded players, we will never know. Sure, they’re loveable, respectable, classy guys, which makes trying to be objective about them much more difficult, but their contributions – or lack thereof speak for themselves. The style of play that was promised by Jacques Martin was never delivered – not even close. Instead, he enforced the exact opposite style of play that would have maxed out the players’ talents.  What’s the French translation for ‘appeasement’? The ruse worked for a while…or did it? I think we can all agree that goaltending saved not just the team’s bacon, but the entire barn. Whether Carey Price since the start of last year, or Halak two seasons ago, the trip to the Conference Finals was enchanting, but it was a fairy tale. An anomaly. The road taken was unsustainable. When a game plan calls for a goaltender to stop 40-50 shots per night, and asks defensemen to block almost as many, with the desired end result being a 2-1 victory, it’s only a matter of time before the trap door that you voluntarily stood on top of opens wide. Sidney Crosby’s bewilderment at the conclusion of game 7 spoke for nearly everyone, much of Habsland included.

Last year the team had its ups and downs, eventually bowing out in the first round to the Bruins in seven games. Many saw that as some sort of accomplishment, considering the “injuries”. Yawn. News flash! there are no moral victories in the playoffs. None. There never were, and there never will be. Talk of “tomorrow’s another day” is for the regular season. The playoffs, on the other hand are merciless and not for the faint of heart. Any talk otherwise stems from apologists, exonerators and excuse makers. Pass me the barf bag. The cracks in the foundation were deep and visible, but covered up with Carey Price’s excellence. That Carey Price is even in a Habs sweater is a stroke of luck.

Fast forward to this season, and the slow slide to oblivion accelerated to avalanche speed, and not even Price’s continued fine play could stop it. Jacques Martin quickly lost the pulse of his team, which is not surprising given how he stamped out any semblance of energy and passion – what was left to measure when you don’t communicate with your players? He soon ran out of places to hide, kids to throw under the bus and people to blame other than himself by the time the axe fell. Last Saturday ended what was an infernally long tenure that really wasn’t that long at all; it just felt that way, which is a damning testament to the type of stodgy, stale, flaccid hockey that Jacques Martin had installed. It was, and still is boring, which speaks to the damage that he has done, and that Randy Cunneyworth has been tasked with fixing. Nothing is worse than failing, sleep-inducing hockey, especially when you’re one of the priciest tickets in the league. Nothing. Near the end, Jacques Martin said that it was less about entertaining the fans. Way to keep up with the times, Coach.

Now, as Randy Cunneyworth struggles to pump out the water, he seems as powerless as a nine volt battery trying to power a nuclear submarine. It isn’t his fault; he’s been set up for failure by ownership and management, and the jackals in the French media have already begun gnawing at the carcass before it has even flatlined. Dead man walking.

The result is a team in disarray, or at least the semblance of disarray. There are still some good players on this team: Cole, Pacioretty, Gionta, Plekanec, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are all eminently capable of 25 goals each, but only one or two of those guys will hit that number…three would be stretching it. As the team spirals to 12th place and poised to sink even lower, fans are predictably calling for a tank & rebuild in the same vein as Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, and other teams that reaped all-star talent at the draft table by being appallingly bad for many years.

As tempting as it may be to dream of a lottery draft pick, it’s not needed for this iteration of the team. Serious tweaking? Absolutely. Blowing it up? Stop it. While this season is on the verge of being lost, (if it wasn’t lost in October) there is plenty of hope for 2012-13, provided Geoff Molson gets his priorities straight and stares down those that insist that they have a say in running the team.

Re-signing Price, Subban and Gorges are no-brainer decisions. Bringing back Andrei Kostitsyn isn’t quite a no-brainer, but it’s damn close. Unless he can fetch a king’s ransom in return, he should be retained, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t trust Gauthier to fetch that kingly ransom. Thanks to Gauthier’s panic moves designed to save his, and Jacques Martin’s job (bonjour to those who said that a healthy Campoli and Kaberle would fix all that ails the team), he has saddled the team with some contracts that are suffocating the Habs, and will continue to do so until they’re off the books. That being the case, whoever has the title of General Manager in the summer – because it won’t be Pierre Gauthier – should focus on moving Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Kaberle at all costs. Freeing up that kind of scratch and replacing it with the right pieces and coupled with the proper Coaching, will set it back on course in a hurry.

There’s no need to flush out everyone over the age of 27. No need to be voluntary doormats for years to come. No need to waste some of Carey Price’s best years. As long as pillars like Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec, Cole, Eller, Gorges and Gionta are around, there is plenty to play for, and it’s all the more reason to get things right without waving the white flag of failure.The only capitulations that should be made, if the team can’t pull out of this tailspin absolutely and immediately (meaning tonight vs Winnipeg, and no more consolation loser points), is to trade pending UFAs (except Gorges and Kostitsyn) for assets. That’s it.

The recipe, as challenging as it may be to implement, is really quite simple:

1- Get the organizational priorities straight. Winning? Or pandering & political appeasement?
2- Hire the best General Manager money can buy, language be damned.
3- Let him get the best Coach, and ask him to pretty please with a cherry on top become competent in French as quickly as possible.
4- Sign or trade for players that match the new Coach’s style and fill the team’s gaps.
5- Enjoy hockey again.

Now, if only Geoff Molson can summon the courage to stomp out the filthy agenda-driven rats in the Francophone media and political arena who have infested and warped the views of Habs fans all over Quebec, things might get moving in the right direction. These clowns have once again made the Canadiens a laughing stock, not only in hockey circles, but in global news. It’s not because “outsiders don’t understand”. It’s because it’s farcical that a segment of Quebecers carry the sense of entitlement that allows them to believe that they control the team. The legacy of the Canadiens hangs from the rafters of the Bell Center, and it was built by French AND English. The legacy doesn’t exist anywhere else. It’s a sport. You want to make a statement about your culture and language? Do it through other channels and stay out of the hockey rink. People and organizations trying to shape the Canadiens to reflect their narrow-minded, pig-headed views have no place in the business of sport.

The ball is in your court, Mr. Molson.

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Open Letter to French Media

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Dear French Media,

I know many of you are lining up your next column, decrying the fact that the Habs have hired an interim anglo head coach.

In the interests of letting you get on with pushing your infantile agenda, I’ll be brief.

The Canadiens can provide their fans with “the minimum of respect” by putting a winning product on the ice.

The convenience and access provided to you by a French coach has nothing to do with wins, points and Stanley Cups. Your sense of entitlement has made you arrogant. You’ll tell us that the vast majority of the province is French, and you are right. But that same majority also wants wins over an easier-to-understand press conference. That’s to say nothing of the global community of Canadiens fans who want, and deserve the best chance at cheering for an elite team.

Your constant agenda pushing that would see the Canadiens continuing to fish where there are no trophy fish is an outdated and ignorant view that serves nobody but yourselves. Now, not all of you share this view. I urge you to speak up in favour of a meritocracy.

If a French, or bilingual candidate should arise, and he happens to be the best man for the job, by all means hire him. And by “best man for the job” I mean the man that can get the most out of the players on the ice. But to settle for less than the best so that your job easier is a disservice to everyone that you so badly want the Canadiens to “respect”.

Like the departed Coach, your reasoning and logic is flimsy, outdated, tired and reeks of entitlement. You don’t own the Canadiens. You do not deserve to have a say in who gets hired. Your job is to report on the daily happenings of the team. No more, no less.

Get over yourselves.

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Like Poison

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Jacques Martin’s mere presence behind the bench has become deathly poisonous to the Habs. From a terrible strategy game-in, game-out to throwing his young players under the bus, this Coach is about as positive and nurturing a presence as Palpatine is leading the republic. Hell, he even had the audacity to hint that Price, his only hope at his $500,000 playoff bonus was a reason for losing.

They couldn’t beat the best at home, and they couldn’t beat the worst at home. What’s left?

He MUST go.

Fire Jacques Martin.

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Limbo Champs

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As the Habs continue to fight against the current, one thing is becoming more and more clear: this team is not living up to anyone’s expectations. Not the fans’, not the media’s, who, although they didn’t peg the Habs as elite, didn’t have them as being this bad, either. Most importantly, they aren’t living up to their own expectations. We hear it repeated over and over in post game scrums and press conferences about how they we not prepared, not focused, not playing as a team. Now they’re griping about seeing the standings every day in their own locker room and not being pleased with what they see. As the writing on the wall starts to take shape, the mood in the room sounds decidedly flat and negative. A once jovial and tight locker room seems to be fraying at the edges. It’s hard to believe that they’ve turned on one another, given that their good character guys, but it’s not hard to believe that they no longer believe in the game plan that is being forced upon them.

It’s clear that the Canadiens are currently not living up to their own expectations. After all, they were the ones who came up with the “Rise Together” marketing campaign. What, exactly were they implying by that? Rise to where, exactly? To 8th place? 6th place? After a 2010-2011 year in which the Canadiens showed great promise, fueled by Price, Subban and Pacioretty, the team’s Marketing department may have made their first misstep in actually trying to RAISE the bar for once. They finished 6th last year, and, as the refrain goes, if they had Markov, Gorges and Pacioretty all year, they could have done better. So I assume they had higher targets this year.

Oops!

You might tell me that injuries have derailed the best laid plans, but I think that’s nothing but a lazy, old and tired excuse. Markov has been out for so long that he should no longer be factored in to the team’s plans or fortunes until he’s back in the lineup. Same goes for Campoli, a wildcard player left on the free agent scrap heap until late September. Surely, such saviours don’t rot on the scrap heap do they? The only thing we can say is that we don’t know how he would have fit in to this roster. Maybe he would have helped, maybe not. Scott Gomez, another big name and cap hit on the shelf wasn’t producing and was a drag on the team, so don’t tell me about him. You can spin the injury argument all you like, but the Penguins hummed along without Crosby, Malkin and Staal for long stretches so save the injury excuse for the apologist round table discussions. Mismanagement of resources, weak bench management, puzzling choices, lack of coach-to-player communication, motivation, outdated and ill-fitting systems, unprepared (and yes, underachieving) players are the real problems of the team. Many of these can be fixed by putting a Coach in place that puts talent in position to succeed, armed with a game plan that matches their skill sets. That hasn’t happened for much of the last 2+ seasons.

Ask yourself this: What other organization can steeply raise prices across the board and deliver such an average product? Even worse than losing is that they’ve become BORING. From the General Manager, to the Coach and now finally tricked down to the ice, the team is void of flair, personality and FUN. That’s perhaps the biggest knock against the brand of hockey that the Jacques Martin era will be known for. Montreal is a city teeming with flair, fun and personality, and given how tightly woven the Habs are in the fabric of the city, their current state is a loose thread on the tapestry. Yet legions of people are willing to accept it? I understand “accepting it because you’re virtually powerless to change it” (you’re not, by the way), but I cannot comprehend anybody “accepting it because you think it’s good enough”. By the way, the Canadiens have played many poor games this year, and currently have the worst home record in the league. Some reward for those people who scramble to find ways, despite the rapidly escalating prices, to go to the Bell Center and buy up all things Canadiens.

Rise Together? I guess if you’re at the bottom, then there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Maybe this has been the plan all along.

Yet as team owner Geoff Molson stands pat, offering his support for the General Manager, Head Coach, and Gomez alike, it seems all too clear that profits are a higher priority for the powers that be than winning is. This should come as no surprise. All outward appearances seem to indicate that making the playoffs and reaping pure profit from a couple home games is the goal. They tell us that the Cup is the goal, but as we all know, actions speak louder than words. In my last post, I’ve clearly showed that winning the Cup is a matter of home ice advantage. Without it, chances of glory are slim, yet that doesn’t stop pie-eyed optimists from believing that “anything is possible”. I don’t hold that belief against anybody, because anything is possible if you want to get in to semantics, but with just one of the last 34 Cup finalists winning it all (that’s 3%) without entering the playoffs with home ice advantage, I tend to put my stock in the overwhelming stat that has been proven over a long period of time.

And so we’ve become very good at limbo, because we happily bend over backwards to make time for this team, spend money on it and invest our hopes in it. What a pity.

Sadly, the Canadiens, through spin, media mouthpieces, marketing and PR have successfully lowered the bar to the point where making the playoffs is seen as some great accomplishment, and as a result, fans now believe that an upset or two (and even near-upsets) are highwater benchmarks of success.

Many of us know better. Unfortunately, it seems that not enough do.That, my friends, is the magic of good marketing.

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A Puncher’s Chance?

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“Just get in to the playoffs, and you never know what can happen!”

That’s the message we are fed by the media, and by bubble teams when it comes to the playoffs and Cup contention. They’re partially right, because you have a 0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup if you don’t make the post season.

Since fans of any given team will dismiss damning statistics and tell themselves whatever they need to in order to continue to believe that their team has a good shot at glory, I expect that most fans of bubble teams (hello Habs fans!) that happen to be reading this will completely ignore or dismiss what they’re about to read.

The below table of Cup winners since ’94 will show you that since the Habs last won the Cup in ’93, that if you don’t start the playoffs with home ice advantage, your chances of winning the Cup aren’t much higher than zero. If the following breakdown doesn’t sober you up, or pop the lenses out of your bleu-blanc-rouge coloured goggles, then I’m afraid nothing will. In that case, may I suggest heading to the online Canadian Pharmacy (why get off the couch?) and buying the the most potent drugs you can afford in order to clear the cobwebs?

Cup Winner Started Playoffs With Home Ice? Cup Finalist Started Playoffs With Home Ice?
93-94 Rangers Yes Canucks No
94-95 Devils No Red Wings Yes
95-96 Avalanche Yes Panthers Yes
96-97 Red Wings Yes Flyers Yes
97-98 Red Wings Yes Capitals Yes
98-99 Stars (D,C,L) Yes Sabres No
99-00 Devils Yes Stars (D) Yes
00-01 Avalanche (D,C,L) Yes Devils (D,C) Yes
01-02 Red Wings (D,C,L) Yes Hurricanes (D) Yes
02-03 Devils (D) Yes Ducks No
03-04 Lightning (D,C) Yes Flames No
04-05
Lockout
05-06 Hurricanes (D) Yes Oilers No
06-07 Ducks (D) Yes Senators Yes
07-08 Red Wings (D,C,L) Yes Penguins (D) Yes
08-09 Penguins Yes Red Wings (D) Yes
09-10 Blackhawks (D) Yes Flyers No
10-11 Bruins (D) Yes Canucks (D,C,L) Yes

Legend
(D) = Division winner
(C) = Conference winner
(L) = League champ

It’s pretty resounding, isn’t it? Of the last 34 teams to play for the Cup, only 7 teams (21%) didn’t start the playoffs with home ice. That doesn’t sound too bad, and it sounds almost like a team has a puncher’s chance of winning it all if they could just get to the finals. Not so much. Of those 7 teams, only the Devils in 1995 actually did win it all without the benefit of the home ice (and really, given the sleep inducing hockey they won with, would it have mattered if they did?). That’s 1 team in 34, or 3%. What’s more? The last FIFTEEN consecutive Cup winners all had home ice advantage to start the playoffs. I’d call that more than a trend. Indeed, 16 of the last 17 Cup winners (94%) entered the playoffs with home ice advantage, and 11 of the last 17 runners-up (64%) did the same. Uh-oh.

I won’t blame you if you bury your head now.

On the bright side, we Habs fans could always aspire to be like the 2006 Oilers, who pushed the Hurricanes to the absolute brink of game 7 in the Cup Finals, and maybe they would have won it if they hadn’t lost Dwayne Roloson for the deciding game.

Looking back at the NHL since it’s major realignment in 98-99, 10 out of 12 Cup winners (83%) won their division (and thus had home ice). Even 6 of the 12 losers had won their division. Indeed, it appears as though the path to winning the Cup goes through winning your division. Perhaps this is why I’m so disappointed in the Canadiens. My simplistic brain told me that a team that finished the 2010-11 season with 96 points would improve upon that total with a full season of Max Pacioretty, the addition of Erik Cole and a healthy Josh Gorges (with Markov yet to show up). Silly me!

So if you see me on twitter, or read this blog and find that I’m too critical, or “glass half empty”, you now see the reason why. While I love the players on the team, and want them to succeed, I believe in precedent, in historical records and in trends. We make all kinds of excuses why the Canadiens didn’t beat the Islanders last week, why they get stymied time after time by a “hot goalie”, and why it’s ok for them to be where they are (“just wait until everyone is back!” – don’t talk to me about injuries. Habs fans have done a terrific job of pretending that they’re the only team with guys out of the lineup). The hard truth is that the mantra of “you never know” is pretty much rubbish, and the above facts prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.  That doesn’t mean that I don’t root for the Habs with everything I’ve got, because I do and I always will. But I’m also not blind to reality. When it comes to sneaking in to the playoffs, all you’ve done is given yourself a tiny chance to win the Cup. Is that enough for you? For me, it’s not.

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He’s Lying to You – Part 2

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If you hit up an online sportsbook like http://topbet.com/sportsbook/, you’d have found good odds on whether or not I’d follow up my last post with a sequel. With so much material to write about, you could have taken it to the bank!

During the post-game press conference following the Habs 3-2 shootout loss to the Sabres on Monday night, Head Coach Jacques Martin added to his ever-growing pile of perplexing, curious and false statements carefully designed to deflect pointed questions, avoid damning himself and erect trickster smokescreens. I’m not sure when he’s going to stop insulting the intelligence of the fans and media with his ridiculous answers, but it’s clear from the audacity of some of his replies that he’s running out of tricks.

In a game where the Canadiens dictated the pace and tone through 40 minutes, something changed during the second intermission. In easing back on the accelerator, the Canadiens let the upstart Sabres back in the game. Whether the players were instructed to play it safe or if the players did it themselves out of instinct, lack of confidence or fear of winning, when asked for the reasons behind the Canadiens collapse, Martin offered up the following:

“…a lot of youth on the backend, and they took advantage”.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. With P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber, Alexei Emelin and Raphael Diaz patrolling the blue line, there certainly were many young kids trying to hold the fort. But is it right to blame them for the loss? A team that has ZERO shots on goal in the third period through 14 minutes sounds like a team that isn’t intent on doing the same things that made them successful through the first 40 minutes – and that includes much more than a handful of young defencemen who played their hearts out. Since taking over as Coach in 2009, Jacques Martin has proven nothing if not that he strongly favours his veterans and only leans on young players if he has no other choice. How else do you explain his overuse of Mathieu Darche on the powerplay? Or Travis Moen on top scoring lines? Or bypassing Lars Eller at nearly every turn despite his rapid improvement? Or benching a slumping Andrei Kostitsyn? Last season, P.K. Subban didn’t rise to prominence until both Markov and Gorges were lost, leaving Martin with no other choice but to play the high-risk/high-reward Subban for 20+ minutes per night.

So are the young defencemen truly to blame, as the Coach would have us believe, or is Martin taking the easy, predictable path of least resistance? After all, if he starts shining the light of blame on his veterans, he can kiss his locker room support – and eventually his job – goodbye. It’s the last bastion of a Coach who can’t adapt, adjust to an evolving game, or make the best use of available resources. Whether it’s strategy or tactics, he simply marinates in old school game plans, then wraps himself in the kevlar vest that is the happiness of veterans while cursing the youth at every turn.

As I listened to Martin drive over his young rearguards and then back over them again, I  thought back to the past two seasons. Oddly, I don’t remember him ever publicly smacking his veterans for their questionable-at-times play. So I took a look at the numbers, and admittedly it’s difficult to try and quantify poor defence. But if we look at turnovers/giveaways under the Jacques Martin reign, we’ll see some eye-popping numbers. No, turnovers aren’t the be-all-end-all metric, but they’re a good starting point. If we can agree that turnovers are a barometer of a player without an idea of what to do with the puck, a player in a panic, a player without poise and without the benefit of experience, then surely veterans must be the opposite, and the numbers will reflect that, right?

Let’s start with this current 2011-12 season. The Canadiens are currently 4th overall in the league in giveaways – that’s 4th most, not 4th least. At first glance you’ll say “AHA! You see, with some many young defencemen, it’s no wonder they’re 4th overall!” Ok, but keep reading. Among the defencemen, it should shock nobody that Subban leads the pack. He’s committed the 6th most turnovers in the entire league, with 17. It’s no surprise that Subban has struggled this year, mightily at times and was guilty of the turnover that led to the Sabres tying goal on Monday night. We’ll concede this to Coach Martin. Right on Subban’s heels is Hal Gill, coming in at 11th place with 16 turnovers, followed by Yannick Weber (31st with14), Josh Gorges (50th with 12) and Raphael Diaz (115th with 9). For their parts, Emelin and Spacek were way down the list, so we’ll let them off the hook. But overall it’s a pretty fair mix of vets and young players, wouldn’t you say? But no, in Martin’s mind it’s easier to only single out the under-25 set. You’ll tell me that Gill didn’t play, and Spacek left Monday’s Buffalo game early. True, but take a look – Gill is still near the top of the leaderboard even if he hasn’t played every game. Hal Gill of 1000+ games played! (Disclaimer: I really like Hal Gill; he can play on my team as long as he wants; his good outweighs the bad).

In Martin’s first season as Habs Coach, the Canadiens committed 910 turnovers, good for 2nd most in the entire league. Leading the group? Roman Hamrlik (3rd in the NHL with 86), Jaroslav Spacek (4th in the NHL with 81), and Hal Gill (8th in the NHL with 76). Well that’s weird. Weren’t those players all in their mid-thirties at the time, with the benefit of experience that thousands of games under their collective belts provides? 2 of the top 5 in the league? 3 of the top 10? Funny, I don’t recall Coach Martin ever blaming his veterans for the team’s defensive woes back then, do you?

Last season in 2010-2011, the Canadiens had a marked improvement. They finished the year with 738 turnovers, still good for a lousy 7th in the NHL. It’s pretty sad when a 7th place finish is seen as a big improvement. Leading the pack? James Wisniewski (23rd with 67, with Isles and Habs), Hal Gill (30th with 62 giveaways),  Subban (49th with 56 and who was a rookie playing the role of a #1 defenceman), Jaroslav Spacek (54th with 55) and Roman Hamrlik (62nd with 53). So while there was a significant improvement, and nobody was even in the top 20, as a team the Canadiens were still guilty of far too many turnovers, and it was largely the veterans who were at fault. Still, we never heard Martin come down on them.

I’ve intentionally left the forwards out of the mix, but rest assured that veterans like Plekanec, Cammalleri and Gomez have all been guilty of many, many turnovers in the past 2+ seasons. Seasoned veterans, all three of them, and they all are among the team leaders in coughing up the puck.

If you’re still with me, I thank you for sticking around. It can be challenging to slog through so many stats and it can be even harder to make sense of them. If you leave this page with any sort of takeaway, it’s this:

  • Experienced defencemen are vitally important, but it’s lazy to always blame young rearguards simply because the Coach says so, or because they make the easiest, most convenient target. The numbers show, at least in part, that in the Jacques Martin era, veterans are just as likely as young defencemen to make egregious turnovers. Regardless of who’s in the lineup (old or young) this team coughs the puck up with regularity.

Instead of pointing the finger of blame at the young blue line, perhaps Martin should be made to explain why his team constantly eases off in third periods? If they maintained an aggressive forecheck, and truly were a puck possession team as he claims they are, then the puck would spend more time in the offensive zone and the “culpable kids” would have less burden on their shoulders, no? We know he said that it’s not the plan to back off, but as I pointed out in part 1, he’s either full of it, or he has incompetent players, and I’m certain it’s not the latter.

With a litany of preposterous answers on the record, Jacques Martin is steadily painting himself in to a corner. The answers all dovetail nicely with his most preposterous claim of all – that the Canadiens are in fact a puck-possession team. How can that possibly be true when his team:

  • Gives away the puck more often than the average team?
  • Is perennially close to the bottom of the league in goals for?
  • Has been in the bottom third of the league in minor penalties for the past 2+ seasons?

Is there something that the Wizard of Oz is keeping secret from us lowly, uneducated fans and bloggers? If it hasn’t become obvious already, this team is often an unfocused, confused group under the watch of Jacques Martin. Getting by with miraculous goaltending is not a sustainable plan for winning.

I’m not saying that the Habs’ young defencemen are perfect or that any of them are going to earn a Norris nomination any time soon. But it’s not asking too much for Martin to show a little even-handedness when doling out accountability through the media. If, as some suggest, falling back to protect a lead is a sign of a team without confidence or experience, then it would behoove the coach to stop throwing the kids to the wolves. The last time I looked, young players not only comprise the majority of his defensive corps right now, but more than anything they need encouragement and mentoring. Not the goat horns.

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He’s Lying to You

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I really feel like I could spin the title of this post – “He’s Lying to You” in to a series of posts, and I may just do that. But for now, let’s kick this one around.

“The plan was not to sit back at all. The best defense is offense.” — Jacques Martin

Martin has tried to sell us many good yarns this year, but this one is really a shocker coming from the King of Passive hockey. But if we are to believe what the Coach said in the aftermath of a game blown to the Buffalo Sabres last night, then certainly he must have recent memories and statistical evidence track record that speaks to that belief, right?

Let’s take a look and see what the Coach may be talking about.

In 2009-10, his first season in Montreal, the Canadiens scored 217 goals. That was good for 10th overall in the Eastern Conference, 23rd overall in the NHL and the 2nd lowest of any Eastern playoff team. I know, I know. The Canadiens went to the Eastern Conference Finals, so stuff it, right? Blah blah blah. Spare me your circular logic. As I’ve said before, we know how the Canadiens got to the Eastern Conference Finals and it had little to do with a spectacular offense.

In 2010-11, his second season in Montreal, the Canadiens actually slipped to 216 goals, good for 12th in the Eastern Conference, 24th overall in the NHL and the LOWEST of any Eastern Conference playoff team. I can hear the homers already: “But they took the eventual champs to overtime in game 7…and the injuries…..THE INJURIES! ARGH!!!!”. Where’s the snooze button, because I’m going to push it. Hard. There are no moral victories in the playoffs, and there were plenty of other teams that had more injuries than the Habs last season. In fact, the Canadiens were pretty much right in the middle of the pack in terms of man games lost to injury.

This season, the Canadiens have scored 42 goals through 17 games. That’s 2.47 goals per game on average, and projects out to 203 goals for the season. So if the Coach think that a best defense is a good offense, his team is going in the wrong direction, and has been going in the wrong direction for what is now a 3rd consecutive season. The addition of Erik Cole, a full season of Max Pacioretty and a bounce back season for some vets were supposed to set the stage of a more potent offense, was it not? Aside from Markov, who has been a gigantic question mark for many months now, the team has been relatively healthy. Cammalleri and Kostitsyn have missed a few games apiece, but certainly not enough to be the sole reason for the Habs’ continued inability to score goals.

Going back to what the Coach said: “The plan was not to sit back at all. The best defense is offense.”…how exactly does the Coach practice what he preaches? As the moribund powerplay continues to circle the drain, the Coach still affords Mathieu Darche precious minutes while other more talented, more deserving players sit and watch from the bench. Does having Tomas Plekanec on the point help or hurt? Does the Coach get his team to continually push the pace? Does he encourage and motivate them to play the same way that put them in a position to have a 2-goal lead to begin with? Or rather does he stand pat while his passive 1-2-2 system kills any offensive momentum his team may have had? If he in fact does not preach sitting back to protect a lead, then why does he continue to let it happen? It’s his job to change his players’ habits, is it not? If the players come out and talk about how they sat back, yet the Coach says that wasn’t the plan, then where’s the disconnect from the Coach to the players? Are the players stubborn? Incompetent? Is the Coach’s message not getting through? Is it not properly delivered? No matter, getting the best from his team and ensuring that his message is getting through is HIS job.

We’ve taken a look at some of the things we can see with our own eyes, but now let’s delve a little deeper in to some stats to try and help paint a clearer picture.
The Canadiens have 14 third period goals this season, which puts them in a logjam with the likes of Phoenix, Columbus, Nashville, Winnipeg and Detroit for 21st in the NHL. Red Wings aside, those aren’t the teams I think of when I think of “offense” and pushing the pace. Until last night, the Canadiens were actually 5-0 when leading after two periods, so a 5-0-1 record this morning should not be the end of the world, and truly it isn’t. The record and team are not on trial here. But that 5-0-1 record still only places them 18th overall in the league when leading after two periods. Since a near-perfect record ranks them a mediocre 18th, it can only mean that more than half of the teams in the league have had more leads to protect after two periods than the Habs, which speaks to the Habs overall inability to score at any point in the game. But the Habs ranking of 21st in the NHL in 3rd period goals means two thirds of the league still manages to score more goals in the final frame. When you put these seemingly disparate pieces of information together, it tells me that the Canadiens don’t push the pace in the third period, whether they are leading or trailing (Habs remain winless when trailing after two periods with an 0-6-2 record) and do in fact sit on leads going in to the third period when they have a lead to protect.

The final analysis says that if Jacques Martin believes that the best defense is a good offense, he does almost nothing to prove it. Is the Coach simply stating what he believes, but is unable to implement? Or is he trying to make us believe (similar to him telling us that young defensemen are to blame, or that his team plays puck possession hockey) what he wants us to believe? Given his track record, we know he’ll probably throw his friend and boss, General Manager Pierre Gauthier to the wolves for failing to provide enough talent. Hmm, that is curious, isn’t it? Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Max Pacioretty, Lars Eller, David Desharnais, Erik Cole, Andrei Kostitsyn, PK Subban, Yannick Weber, Raphael Diaz…does that sound like a talentless roster to you? Is that a list of names that evokes “can’t score goals” to you? It’s not to me.

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My Top Five Bell Centre Experiences

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Yep, it’s time to step away from the burning-house Habs talk and relax. I got to thinking about how much I miss the Montreal Forum, but the cold reality then set in: the Bell Centre has been a part of my life for nearly as long as the Forum has. In fact, if you ignore those early years where nothing really seems to matter except toys and more toys, the Bell Centre indeed has been more a part of my life than the old shrine of hockey on Ste-Catherine & Atwater. Lining up for hockey tickets, or concert tickets on the upper floors of The Bay in Fairview or at the Dorval mall were always the spots to go. Lining up for tickets was part of the experience, but I’ll sacrifice that part of the journey in favour of the conveniences offered by the internet.

From Habs games, to Montreal Roadrunner games, to concerts, the Montreal Forum  holds many amazing memories for me: Standing room playoff games vs the Bruins (Roy’s return from “appendicitis” most notably), Stopping the Leafs season opening winning streak in 93, Green Day on the day of the Referendum on Quebec separation, WWF events, Harlem Globetrotters…the list goes on and on. I wondered how the Bell Centre has stacked up, and I have to say, that as much as I’ll always favour the Forum for nostalgic reasons, the Bell Centre has provided many great times for me. Here’s a list in no particular order:

Habs at Penguins – Game 7 of the 2010 playoffs
Say what? Habs AT Penguins? Bell Centre? Huh? The Canadiens were on the verge of knocking off another Eastern Conference powerhouse and the Bell Centre was opened to the masses. A $10 ticket got you inside the Bell Centre to watch the game on the scoreboard. In the day leading up to game 7, all I could think about was how odd it would be to watch a game at the Bell Centre without the team actually being there. It was a phenomenal experience. I wrote about it here, but looking back, it really is astonishing to me what a crowd of 22,000 people can do to simulate a real game. The team was hundreds of kilometres away in Pennsylvania, but it was definitely my favourite and most unique Habs experience at the Bell Centre. The celebrations (and sadly, the looting) all made for a crazy, crazy night.

Foo Fighters, 2011
If Dave Grohl wasn’t considered one of rock’s great frontmen already, may have ascended right to the top of the list during this summer’s tour that landed in Montreal. For nearly 150 minutes the Foo Fighters blew the roof clear off the Bell Centre with a rip-roaring show for the ages. I’m not one for big arena shows, but the energy in the building that night was simply off the charts, and it all came from the band from the very first note. It’s hard to think about what today’s rock landscape would look like if Nirvana hadn’t been abruptly torpedoed. Everyone that I speak to that was at that show still raves about it to this day, and indeed it was probably the best rock show this city has seen in some time.

All Star Weekend, 2009
I didn’t have tickets to the game, to the skills competition or to any event in the city that weekend. I didn’t see any of the players, I wasn’t a part of the legion of people that got to pick up players at the airport as they arrived from out of town. Instead, I hung around the Bell Centre, checked out the miniature Hall of Fame / media tent that they had set up and just took in the sub-zero atmosphere. To see the Bell Centre decked out with massive banners of Carey Price, Alex Kovalev and Sidney Crosby was terrific. The exhibits around the Bell Centre were fantastic. It was well worth freezing myself half to death to get all of these cool pictures.

Canadiens Fan Appreciation Night, 2002
What was so memorable about a regular season finale where the Habs mailed it in for a  3-0 loss? Well, it was the second home game for Captain Saku Koivu after returning from cancer treatments, so there’s that. But what really made it memorable for me was around half way through the games when one of the usherettes came to us and asked us to check under our seats. Taped underneath my mom’s seat was a sealed envelope that said that she had been selected to meet a player at ice level at the game’s conclusion and get an authentic jersey signed by a randomly chosen player. My mom is a big Habs fan, but she passed off the winning ticket to me knowing that this would mean a lot more to me. About 5 minutes before the end of the game, all winners gathered at ice level in the corner of the arena (where the zambonis come out) and randomly selected a number between 1 and 25. I chose 24, my lucky number. It failed me that night, as I drew Yanic Perreault. Don’t get me wrong, he was the Habs best forward and leading scorer that year. He was a nice player, but ultimately a footnote in Habs history. It was even more disappointing to learn that choosing number 23 would have put me face to face with Doug Gilmour and 25 would have been Jose Theodore, who had his Hart Season that year. He was kind of a big deal. Anyway, it made for a really great experience. Being introduced by Michel Lacroix was a thrill, even if the building was 75% empty by that point! Shaking hands with Perreault, hanging around on the ice for a few moments with the winners & Habs players is something I won’t soon forget. I still have the jersey and the team 5×7 photo from that night.

Metallica, 2005
I first got in to Metallica in 1989, when I was just 11 years old. A bit young for such weighty subject matter in music, but I digress. I remained a fan for a relatively short period, until a couple guys named Vedder and Cobain came on to the scene. “Alternative” was in, metal was out. It remained that way for about a decade. While Metallica was falling off the map, other bands were making big names for themselves, at least in my mind. The earth’s axis was put back in proper order in 2005 when one of my best friends (and roomate at the time) came home from work with box seats to that night’s show. Without giving Metallica a second thought for a decade (except to make fun of Kirk Hammett’s painted fingernails), I was instantly stoked, and my anticipation was well rewarded. Metallica just so happens to be the tightest, most powerful band I’ve ever seen live, and I’ve seen more shows than I can count. When you’re sitting up in a box and still feel the intense heat from the pyrotechnics at stage level, you know something is going very, very right. Fortunately, the only face-melting that night was due to Hammett’s shredding. Hey, having your face torched in the same city twice was probably too much for one guy anyway. This show may be the loudest I’ve ever heard a crowd at the Bell Center, and that’s counting any and all Habs games. The other contender for loudest event at the Bell Center? Read on…

Honourable Mentions:

WWE Smackdown (sometime in the early 2000′s)
Ain’t no fan like a wrasslin fan! Growing up I was a huge wrestling fan. As they say, it’s a soap opera for guys. I had been to see the WWF at the Forum several times, and saw the greats; Macho Man, Hulk Hogan, Ultimate Warrior, Big Boss Man, The Undertaker…but I had never been to one of their live-for-TV events. The old farts from the 80′s had passed the torch to the likes of Triple H, The Rock and Stone Cold Steve Austin and they did not disappoint. If Metallica wasn’t the loudest event ever, then this was. The WWE had come a long way in terms of razzle dazzle since the 80′s, and it was a viciously fun time, even if pro wrestling is the biggest joke this side of Kim Kardashian’s views on marriage.

Star Wars in Concert, 2009
I was always able to evade the “dweeb” label growing up. As a scrawny kid with glasses, there should have been no other way to describe me. I had unhealthy obsessions with Star Wars (and still do), and comic books (it’s back). But I could always play sports as well as anyone, so I was given a break…I guess. But when it was announced that the music of Star Wars could be heard live and in concert, I could barely contain myself. An evening hosted by Anthony Daniels (that’s the “gay robot” from Star Wars for the clueless) where I got to hear John Williams’ iconic score performed by a live symphony orchestra? Yeah, it was awesome. Here’s a quick video that pretty much sums up what Montreal is all about:

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