Opportunity Cost

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When an underachieving team has its back to the wall, and faces a huge uphill climb, it’s only natural to rally around that team when they rattle off some impressive wins. This is the case with the recent performance of the Habs.

Since trading a disgruntled Michael Cammalleri to Calgary, the team is a mediocre 3-2-2. Not nearly good enough to put them back in the playoff hunt, but optimism has been renewed since those 3 wins have come against the Conference-leading Rangers, the hated Leafs (in Toronto), and the mighty Red Wings. When the most recent victory sees the downtrodden Habs hanging a converted touchdown around the league’s best team’s neck, it’s easy – and sometimes fun – to get carried away that the turnaround is in fact upon us and that the Forum Ghosts are ready to lend a hand.

As the Canadiens blew off the preseason, most shrugged with indifference. In most years, I would have agreed – after all, didn’t Carey Price tell us to “chill”?. This year, however, I didn’t see a team building toward an identity, or establishing chemistry – I saw a team running out players that had no business being a part of a training camp for so long. It felt like the Habs were focused on squeezing as many dollars as they could from whatever time was allotted for preseason games. Once the regular season began, nothing changed. How could it given the lackadaisical approach given to the preseason schedule?  The team that sputtered through the exhibition season fell flat in October, so much so that they became ensnared in the dreaded numbers game bear trap.

The “coveted” 8th place slot drifted further and further out of reach as the season reached the quarter pole, all the way to the point where the Habs were a distant and dismal 11 points out of 8th at mid-season. In other words – they’d need a miracle to claw back and grab that 8th playoff position.

The more pragmatic Habs fans were reading the writing on the wall as they were taking the Halloween decorations down and dusting off the Christmas season regalia. Yes, the regular season is 82 games, and 6 1/2 long months, but the reality is that you can scuttle your playoff hopes in the first month of action.

Thus was born the #failfornail campaign, a euphemism for tanking the season and grabbing the top draft pick at the 2012 entry draft. This slogan sticks in the craw of many fans, who want the Habs in the post-season dance, no matter what. After all, you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs, n’est pas? Never mind that no 5th-8th seed teams have won the Cup since 1995 when Braveheart was the reigning Best Picture winner and Gangta’s Paradise was dominating the radio waves. The Devils won the Cup that year, and it was during a shortened 48-game season, meaning that without having to endure the full 82-game grind, conditions were ripe for a team to win the Cup without starting on home ice. Even at that, the Devils were on the cusp of becoming a dominant league power, not a bubble team. The ’93 Habs were the last team to win the Cup without home ice to start the playoffs in a full season, but again, it should be noted that the Canadiens were a 102-point team that year and were in a stacked division, and were not a bubble team.

In short, bubble teams don’t win anything. In a town with a history like Montreal’s, an 8th place finish is nothing short of a platitude.

As a believer in history and trends, I’m tired of the Habs going in to the playoffs with the “plucky underdog” label. The dire reality is that if you want to win the Cup in the modern era, you need home ice advantage, at least to start the playoffs. The 2006 Oilers are a nice story, but that’s all they are – a nice story. If they had a healthy Dwayne Roloson for game 7, things may have been different, but he was hurt, and they lost. There are no moral victories to be found in game 7 of the Cup Finals, and the Oilers have been rebuilding ever since.

This season has 3 possible outcomes for the Habs:

1- They buck history to “rise together” to grab the 8th playoff spot, despite overwhelming odds. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.

2- They make a brave charge for 8th, but fall short. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.

3- They trade their available assets before the deadline, restock the draft pick and prospect cupboard by moving guys like Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Chris Campoli, Tomas Kaberle, in an attempt to do the one thing they haven’t done since the fluke of the 2005 draft (and previously the 1984 draft): draft in the top 5 and secure a franchise centerman.

When you weigh the team’s needs vs the daunting mountain of history that lies in in their path, the “smart” thing to do for the team’s future success would be to cut bait, let nature take its course and rebound hard next year.

Options 1 and 2, in my mind (and I know I’m not alone) represent a waste of time that although would be exciting for a couple months, would ultimately be a step back for the team. As Division and Conference rivals continue to improve, this is the year to make a huge leap forward in narrowing that gap, if not closing it altogether. Smart teams in today’s cap era build upon a foundation of young, cheap talent that can only come from good drafting. They do not build with pricey free agents. In terms of personnel in the organization, the Canadiens have one of the best evaluators of amateur talent in Trevor Timmins. Give him one year where, in a deep draft, he can lay claim to several high-end prospects and Habs fans will reap the rewards for many years to come.

I’m not naive enough to believe that a team of professional athletes are going to roll over and die. They just aren’t wired that way. With the amount of skill on this Habs team, their current position in the standings defies logic, and in that vein it’s not inconceivable that they could at least turn things around just enough to make everything look respectable. Like the thrilling run to the Eastern Conference Finals a couple years ago, I still believe snatching 8th place and missing out on the opportunity to solidify the future is nothing but a smokescreen that while exciting for a time, really sets the team back. It sparks false hope and conjures up delusions of grandeur.

Now, if only the shareholders would agree to forgo playoff revenue *just once*, the path would be so much easier for Geoff Molson and Pierre Gauthier.

A Plea to P.K. Subban’s Detractors

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This isn’t so much of a typical blog post as it is an impassioned plea to leave P.K. Subban the hell alone. It isn’t a revelation that a segment of fans and media in this town are unreasonably eager to rush to judgement on any growing pain a young player on the Habs will go through. What makes this the “last straw” in my eyes is that Subban is the best talent to come along through the Habs organization in my lifetime since Patrick Roy and the way things are going, Subban will be chased out of town and rise to Norris Trophy-calibre prominence in another uniform.

Make no mistake, I FIRMLY believe Subban will realize, maybe even exceed, his potential. As hard as it is for any rookie in the NHL to develop and succeed, it’s most difficult for young defensemen. It isn’t hard to think of blue-chip defensemen in other organizations who have taken steps back after their initial breakthrough seasons. Tyler Myers and Drew Doughty immediately come to mind. What happens with young players, and defensemen in particular, is that they spend their breakthrough seasons victimizing their foes with talents and assets that are a completely mystery to others around the league. Much like rookie goaltenders often experience success because opponents don’t know about a weak glove hand or a tendency to go down early, rookie defensemen take advantage of similar circumstances.

Last season, the league learned out how good Subban is at carrying the puck and how dangerous he can be rushing up the ice once he gains a full head of steam. This season, opponents started putting more pressure on Subban in the defensive zone to force him to get rid of the puck early and cost the team with the glaring turnovers we have become accustomed to seeing, particularly in recent weeks. What it’ll take for Subban now is to re-adapt to how opponents are handling him.

For Subban to keep developing and make sure his opponents don’t stifle his strength, his coaches have to make sure Subban is listening to them and they have to make sure Subban is as committed to getting better as they are to making him better. I know Subban has that work ethic in him. You can’t come this far and this fast as a professional on talent alone. What Subban also has, however, is the maturity of a 22-year-old kid. What last season’s 14-goal rookie campaign did for Subban was make most people think he had arrived as a professional and maybe to an extent, make Subban himself think that. It’s difficult for a young guy like Subban to be crowned the unofficial prince of Montreal, have fans chase him down the street, chant his name in the stands and not have that all go to his head. It’s a harsh lesson that most young players learn,harsher when it’s learned in a hotbed of unreasonable expectations like Montreal. What you thought was commitment and dedication to your craft turns out to be the type of work ethic that produces average players. Subban is anything but average and Randy Ladouceur along with the rest of the Canadiens coaching staff knows that.

This city’s attitude of wanting results now has hurt the team for the better part of 20 years now. Sometimes “winning at all costs” will produce nothing but losing. The NHL’s successful franchises are given time and understanding that the way to win is to draft and develop their blue chip young talent and tolerating their growing pains on the bumpy road to success. I’m 28 years old and when I think back to the person I was at 22, the change is significant and for the better and I’m sure when you look back on the person you were six years ago, you’d agree. Why should P.K. Subban be expected to be any different from you and me?

Follow Me on Twitter @HeyMyNameIsWill

So Tim Thomas Did Something Dumb…

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Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

Except this time, it feels more like character assassination because of the “B” on his chest rather than the act itself.

As the only American on the Bruins 2011 Cup winning roster, many feel like Thomas should have gone to the White House in solidarity with his teammates, to show respect to the President (even though he doesn’t agree with his politics) and generally to not rock the boat. Many say that if he wanted to make a political statement, he could have done it in another way (yeah right, if it were to come to that, the same people would laugh and say “who the hell is Tim Thomas? Shut up and play hockey, fatty”). Let’s recall that both Nick Boynton and Kris Versteeg (yes, both Canadians) decided not to visit the White House as members of the Cup winning 2010 Blackhawks. Granted, they had both moved on to other teams, but so did Tomas Kaberle, and he was there. I don’t recall the outrage when they skipped the ceremony, do you? You can tell me that as an American, Thomas had the duty to go and represent. But most people say it was about team unity. So which is it? Team unity, or Patriotic duty? Where does free will come in to play?

We’re all entitled to our opinion, and we can go back and forth all day over whether what he did was right or wrong, selfish, or bold. Personally, I could care less either way, so there’s my stance for the record. It doesn’t affect me in any way. What does bother me is this: Canada could barely muster a 60% voter turnout for its most recent Federal Election. That means nearly 10 million Canadians who were eligible to vote chose not to. South of the border, the situation is even worse. When President Obama became “The Man”, only 56.8% of voters showed up to have their say, meaning that nearly 100 million eligible Americans opted to not vote. In the 2010 mid-term elections, nearly 145 million eligible Americans stayed home (37.8% showed up).

I don’t know who did and who didn’t vote in their country’s elections. Based on the massive twitter outrage yesterday, the sheer volume of angry voices says that there were plenty of lazy donkeys among them who gleefully took up arms in the “bash Tim Thomas party”. They chided Thomas’ lack of respect for the President while they themselves didn’t have enough respect to get off their rear end to have their say.

To you people, kindly STFU.

To anyone who thinks that Thomas disrespected his teammates, if they are truly upset with him, they’ll stop defending him as well as they have in the past couple seasons. They won’t play as hard or with as much heart for a guy they’re that angry with.

Talking Trade Deadline

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By now, I hope the vast majority of you have realized the playoffs are little more than a pipe dream for the 2011-2012 Montreal Canadiens. I won’t beat you over the head with unrealistic winning percentages and point totals the team needs to theoretically sneak into the playoffs but needless to say, they’re far off the pace of former coach Jacques Martin’s recently-admitted goal of six points for every possible ten.

With the trade deadline approaching in a bit over a month, it’s time for the Habs to start thinking about next season and beyond. This is more of a plead rather than an expectation as despite the team’s pitiful performance to date, Geoff Molson and Pierre Gauthier have shown every indication that they still fully expect to climb out of this deep hole and achieve playoff glory. However, pointing out the ineptitude of this front office is really besides the point of this post. Every member of this team needs to be evaluated on the basis of whether their value to the team is in the form of being a member of the Habs for years to come or whether their current value should be used to acquire assets that will better serve the team in the future. Here’s how I feel every current roster member should be evaluated:

Scott Gomez - What can you really say at this point? His mind-boggling albatross of a contract holds absolutely no trade value and no real use to the team going forward. The hope is that the team gets granted some sort of out when the next CBA is agreed upon or Geoff Molson suddenly opens up his pocket books and buries Gomez in the minors.

Tomas Plekanec - While he unquestionably is having a down season, Plekanec remains among the most important members of the team and is still one of the better two-way forwards in the league. He has a reasonable salary of $5 million and only turns 30 on Halloween. He’s still a keeper at this point if only for leadership among a young group of centres.

Brian Gionta - Due to his bicep injury that will likely keep his out for the rest of the year, Gionta is untradable at the moment. However, he does provide valuable leadership for a rebuilding team and you still need that element in the locker room even if you choose to blow the whole thing up.

Erik Cole - While Cole has exceeded the expectations created by his free agent contract, other teams will still likely be turned off by the terms of that deal, especially given Cole’s age of 33. If Cole had one additional year after this season on the contract, his value would be significant. For now, at least, the Canadiens would not get fair value for that Cole brings to the team.

Rene Bourque - Bourque has a long way to go to re-assert any value he has around the league among general managers not named Pierre Gauthier. His game-to-game work ethic is questioned and the fact that his contract only expires after the 2015-2016 season does his value no favors.

Andrei Kostitsyn - Kostitsyn is maybe the toughest player to judge as far as whether to try and keep or cut loose. His scoring punch can be attractive to a team looking for just that like the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators. He is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year so there is no trepidation in acquiring his contract. He is one of the few trade chips the team has that can likely bring a decent return so I’d trade Kostitsyn.

Max Pacioretty - Pacioretty is one of the players I’m building the team around for the future so under very few circumstances would I trade him. He is exactly the type of player the franchise has been begging for for so long now and would be foolish to deal away unless a team were to give the Habs an offer they couldn’t refuse.

Travis Moen - Gauthier would be a fool if he hasn’t been fielding calls for Moen by now. Moen provides very good depth for any Stanley Cup contender and is the type of player built for playoff hockey. If he is still in a Habs uniform come February 28th, a terrible mistake has been made.

Lars Eller - Eller has yet to truly come into his own but you get the sense his potential will be realized sooner rather than later. Eller is one of the players I would build the team around going forward.

David Desharnais - I always have a hard time figuring out where Desharnais stands in my eyes. His production is undeniable but his size still renders me skeptical as to whether he can be an effective long-term top six centre. I also feel like the league as a whole doesn’t recognize his talent the way fans in Montreal do. Playoff contenders would also be unlikely to want to make their team smaller at the deadline.

Mathieu Darche - We’re hopefully seeing the Mathieu Darche farewell tour in a Habs uniform because the clock has stuck midnight on his Cinderella career. He is a fringe NHLer at this point and likely holds no value.

Ryan White - White is a player the Habs have greatly missed this year. His energy would’ve been a welcome addition to stagnant performances on several nights. He can be a valuable character guy on an energy line for years to come. His element of grit is also needed on a team still lacking in that department.

Michael Blunden - Like Darche, Blunden likely holds no value at the deadline. His greatest value could be in a Habs uniform going forward as a fourth-liner or 13th forward. He gives the team good, energetic shifts and his size and grit are welcome. I’d be interested in seeing how he pairs up with Ryan White on a line in the future.

Petteri Nokelainen - Noki’s value is also limited at the deadline but his young enough, gritty enough and productive on face-offs enough to perhaps have a role on the team going forward.

Andrei Markov - Obviously Markov has little to no value at the deadline due to his glass knee and his contract is looking more and more like another regrettable one that the team will be stuck with. Markov would provide veteran stability on a young blue line going forward….provided he can ever stay in the line-up.

Tomas Kaberle - Yet another awful contract that Pierre Gauthier inexplicably saddled the team with. I can’t see any team that would take him on so like Gomez, one can only hope the next CBA brings the team an opportunity to cut Kaberle loose with minimal consequences.

Josh Gorges - Absolutely a guy I’d keep under almost any circumstances. Logically, he will be the team’s next captain and is the glue that currently holds the defensive corps together. His contract is reasonable and is the kind of player I’d be thrilled to have as one of the faces of the franchise. Gorges would provide immeasurable guidance and leadership for our young defensemen going forward.

Hal Gill - Gill is exactly the type of defenseman a Stanley Cup contender would be interested in. The legend of his performance on a pairing with Gorges in the 2010 playoffs likely lives on and despite a decline in play this year, Gill is still a very effective shot blocker and valuable on the penalty kill. He would bring solid value at the deadline and like Moen, should already be shopped around.

Chris Campoli - Campoli could interest teams as a veteran, puck-moving defenseman and obviously doesn’t factor into the team’s plans long-term so any assets that could be acquired in return for him should be accepted.

Alexei Emelin - Emelin has had a predictably up and down first year in the NHL but the team should be excited about the element of toughness and aggression he brings to the team going forward. Emelin brings the only true physical element on the blueline at this point and I’d be excited about the role he could play in the team’s future.

Raphael Diaz - Like Emelin, Diaz has also had an up and down first year but that’s to be expected playing in a foreign country and going from the Swiss League to the best hockey league in the world. Going forward, Diaz would make for a good puck-moving defenseman and an asset on the powerplay.

P.K. Subban - Subban is a rare talent and despite a sophomore slump, is one of the franchise corner stones for years to come. His ability shouldn’t be taken for granted despite his growing pains and Subban should be one of the handful of players the Habs build around in the next few years.

Yannick Weber - Teams could find value in Weber as a hired gun for a powerplay but almost any offer the Habs receive would probably be a low-ball. Still, Weber has an attractive skill set and despite a tough year, his upside is something worth being excited about.

Carey Price - Probably the face of the franchise right now and for years to come. Never underestimate the value of a franchise goaltender as he is the greatest source of confidence for young players on a developing team afraid of making costly mistakes. It should go without saying that he is to remain in a Canadiens uniform for years and years to come.

Peter Budaj - Solid backup who can come in and give the team a chance to win on any given night but just not good enough to solidify the goaltending position for any playoff team.

Follow Me On Twitter @HeyMyNameIsWill

So Long, Sniper

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After Cammalleri’s comments the other day, it was quite apparent to me that he wanted out of town, and that if he wasn’t already unpopular in the Habs dressing room, he would be. He may have said the opposite, that he has a love affair with the city and that he’s building a house. To paraphrase Seinfeld: “yadda yadda yadda, now he’s in Calgary”.

The adage is that the team that gets the better player wins the trade. I find that an overly simplistic way of looking at things. Under this prism, it would be a knee-jerk judgement to say that the Flames won the trade, after all, Cammalleri is a star while Rene Bourque is, well not Ray Bourque. If we take their entire careers in to account, there’s no doubt that Cammalleri has been the better player. But over the course of the last 2+ seasons, Bourque has actually outscored Cammalleri. Viewed in that light, the trade is already much more even. Given that Bourque is much bigger and tougher than Cammalleri, he brings another important component that the Habs have been sorely lacking.

When news of the trade broke last night, I didn’t know what to think. I thought Cammalleri deserved to be traded, and I believe he wanted to be traded. I don’t trust Pierre Gauthier, as most Habs fans don’t. When somebody is as univerally disliked as Gauthier is, it’s easy to pan his each and every move. He’s blamed for moves that Gainey ultimately signed off on, as if he forced Gainey to trade for the Gomez’ of the world. Twitter makes for a great sounding board, but it’s prone to make people look like they have some kind of manic disorder. Such was the case with my timeline once the trade was announced. I vacillated between hating and liking the move; If Cammalleri had to go, at least make it a salary dump…make it a move about the future of the team. That wasn’t the case, and the Habs held true to their traditional modus operandi. They’re not holding a firesale, and they will not tank the season in search of a lottery pick. That was a fantasy. After marinating in the trade overnight, I woke up this morning liking it more than when I went to bed. There are reasons to NOT like it, if that’s your choosing, and I wouldn’t hold that against you if are a Cammalleri fan, but I’m opting to look at the positive aspects and run with them:

  • Bourque has actually been a better scorer in recent years than Cammalleri.
  • Bourque is much cheaper (although his contract runs much longer). Nevertheless, he represents good value.
  • Bourque is much bigger, and that is something the Habs need very much need, especially in the dog days of the season when small guys show signs of fatigue.
  • The Habs got a 2nd round pick in return, as well as a depth prospect who may turn out to be a little more than a throw-in.
  • Team unity may improve with the removal of a guy who apparently was not very well liked in the room, and you can’t put a price on that.

If there’s a reason to not like the trade, it’s that Cammalleri was an elite playoff performer while in Montreal. Halak is hero #1, but Cammalleri is right there with him. Trouble is, his elite playoff production is useless if he can’t help the Canadiens get to the playoffs. Any way you slice it, 9 goals is unacceptable from Cammalleri. There’s no excuse for it. He’s been a giant bust this year, sulking around the ice and not doing what he was paid to do: score goals. Guys who come in on the heels of scoring 39 goals and who are given 30 million dollars are not paid to do anything other than score.

If there’s another reason to not like the trade, it’s the manner in how Gauthier goes about his business. He operates in a cone of silence and seems to not have a concrete idea of how to construct and maintain a team. It’s fair to say that the vast majority of Habs fans want him replaced, and perhaps some of the anger of this trade stems from the fact that we now see that he is likely not going anywhere any time soon. It appears that Molson has continued trust in Gauthier, and that makes us mad, and that casts a pall over any move that Gauthier will make. The Canadiens have long stood as an organization that carried itself with class, from top to bottom. Gauthier is sullying that reputation with his panic moves. Firing Assistant Coaches 90 minutes before a game, and other ‘save my job’ type moves are tarnishing the Canadiens, and the results are trickling down to the ice. They used to get it right nearly everywhere. Now they rarely do. There are no more ceremonies to honour the past, to show off how the Canadiens show class and reverence. The focus is on the present, and the focus is blurry.

In the end, there’s no choice but to get on board with the trade. To pray that Gauthier’s 180° turn from a mantra that asked small, skilled players to win it on the powerplay to a team that is getting bigger & grittier will eventually bring badly needed wins in a division that is quickly improving. We can also hope that it show semblance of a team that can tough it out with sandpaper in the playoffs. They won’t get there this year, but they weren’t getting there with Cammalleri, either. If team unity improves as result of a disliked player being moved, then that’s another huge, intangible plus.

The Conundrum

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If it was a secret, it’s not anymore. Actually, it was never a secret; the signs were there from the very beginning, but most chose to ignore them.

For those still unaware, the Canadiens season has been, and remains in jeopardy. Truthfully, it’s been on life support since Halloween. No, that’s not a typo. On the morning of November 1st, the Canadiens were in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, a mere 2 points out of a playoff spot, and very few fans were concerned with the situation (I was). If that isn’t grounds for “life support”, then let’s call it a gestating illness. There was a lot of nonchalance among the fanbase, despite what historical precedent showed to be the harsh reality. That reality said that being outside of the top 8 on November 1st meant a tough climb to get back in. Yes, November 1st is awfully early to pronounce any conclusions for how the season will end, but history was already against the Habs.

Fast forward to January 2012, and the Canadiens have dug themselves down to 12th place in the East, 7 big, fat, bloated points out of the playoff picture. In short: they went in the wrong direction. If things were unsettling back on Halloween, they must be bleak now. Or are they?

Unbeaten in 2012 (nyuk nyuk nyuk), the Habs appear to be a new team. As Will pointed out in his piece yesterday: “early returns suggest this two-game winning streak is more than just a fluke“. Two games is certainly a short sample, but the attitude and tempo appears to be contagious. They no longer sit on leads, they no longer have poor body language, and they no longer look like the stifled, frustrated, crippled group they were under former Coach Jacques Martin. And not to be overlooked: they are no longer boring to watch. We all reserve to right to reevaluate our opinions after more games against tougher teams are in the books, but we are starting to see the team that we thought we had when it was assembled back in 2009 (and tinkered with ever since).

The big question today is whether or not this modest turnaround is “too little, too late”. The Canadiens need to rack up 53 points in their remaining 41 games to end the regular season with 92 points, which represents the average threshold needed to make the playoffs since the lockout ended. Not to be misplaced is the fact that the 8th place team is currently on pace for 94 points, making things yet again harder. The aforementioned 53pts in 41 games is a win percentage of .646 over the second half of the season. If that imposing number wasn’t enough, they have to do their damndest to earn those points in regulation and not allow Eastern opponents to grab “loser points”. That would only make the Canadiens’ task tougher still. Simply put, the Canadiens need to go at least 27-14 from here until the final siren blares on game 82. That would represent quite the reversal of fortunes, and would still only likely reap them the 8th slot in the East – if that. Making things even harder is that the Canadiens need to leapfrog 3 teams, or hope that other teams completely fall apart. The Panthers, Leafs, Sens, and now massively depleted Penguins are all common targets to have the trap door open under their feet. As of yet, none have officially fallen out of the playoff picture, and even if they do, there’s no guarantee that the Canadiens will play well enough to surpass them. Interesting to note that in the past 3 days, the Leafs beat the Wings, Senators took 3 of 4 points from the Flyers, and the Panthers beat the Canucks. If those teams are going to give up the ghost, they aren’t going to do so quietly.

Here’s where The Conundrum rears its ugly head. Is it worth it for the Canadiens to play each of their remaining games like it’s the 7th game of the Cup finals? How much would they have left in the tank for the playoffs? Sure they’d be battle-tested, but they’d also be incredibly weary. Is it worth it for Pierre Gauthier to be a buyer at the trade deadline? Is it worth it to dump assets in a potentially futile quest to grab the 8th in the East? And given that only one Cup winning team since 1994 entered the playoffs without the benefit of home ice advantage, is all of the back-breaking effort really worth it? I would say no, it is not worth it. I would hate to go through a Habs-less spring, but this hamster wheel of mediocrity has to stop. Stakeholders in the team might disagree, as would those fans who say that “you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs“. Personally, I would allow nature to take its course, and I would trade away pending UFAs (unless Kostitsyn can be signed at the right price) for future prospects and draft choices. In the cap era, having good, young talent at a cheap price is the only way to have a perennial contender.

But what do April tee times mean for “interim” Head Coach Randy Cunneyworth? Quite simply, it would likely mean his termination, but is that not already inevitable? He’s already been thrown to the wolves by his Owner and by his General Manager. Short of long playoff run, I’m not sure that anything can secure his future as Coach of the Habs. As much as I like Cunneyworth, and as much as I believe he deserves every single opportunity to be this team’s long-term Head Coach, there’s every reason to believe that the Canadiens brass will bow to pressure from narrow minded media types and extremist fringe elements and opt yet again to take the path of appeasement rather than institute a meritocracy. That means that Cunneyworth’s future as a Coach is elsewhere, and for that reason I see no reason to sacrifice key parts of the future for what is already a virtual mission impossible.

What’s your take? Go for broke, or look to a brighter future, albeit one minus Randy Cunneyworth?

Bonus question: What if the players, as a group, tell Molson that they adore Randy Cunneyworth and want him to stick around permanently? What then? Appease the nose-out-of-joint lunatics, or keep the team happy?

Learning to Walk Again

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“The best defense is a good offense.” – EVERYONE EVER

You’ve heard that generic sports cliche a million times but it’s one the Canadiens should have applied as an organizational philosophy LONG before they dug themselves into this playoff hope-abandoning hole they currently find themselves in. Though it’s a small sample size, the Habs seem to have chosen the fresh start a new year brings us all to implement the teachings of interim coach Randy Cunneyworth and have started winning games by playing the way they should have been playing all along…aggressively.

I gave Jacques Martin more support during his tenure with the Habs than most. I still believe he is a good hockey coach because you can’t be around league benches long enough in the NHL to win 613 games without being pretty damn good at what you do. Fact is, though, Martin’s philosophies didn’t mesh with the assets and skill set this team possesses and several would argue that at this point, the game has passed Martin by and his teachings are archaic. In Montreal, it always seemed like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Martin seemed to preach a “puck-possession style” for the sole purpose of appeasing a fan base that truly believes there can be harmony between on-ice success and an entertaining, offensive-minded style of play. The Habs were stunning incompetent when giving up the first goal and when having earned a lead, had a strong tendency to sit back and try to apply a “bend but don’t break” approach. Under Martin and his lingering mindsets that slowly but surely seem to be washing away, what was supposed to bend usually shattered.

It might be over-simplistic to say the Habs left their tough times and ineptitude on the beaches of Florida and just needed the ushering of a new year along with the return of a cult-favorite goal song for everything to finally click under Cunneyworth but early returns suggest this two-game winning streak is more than just a fluke. The team has taken slim one-goal leads into the third period against both Winnipeg and Tampa Bay but have gone on to uncharacteristically out-shoot their opponents by a combined 23-18 in the deciding period. This is coming from a team that has built a solid reputation of trying to hold on for dear life as they weather an assault from their opponents forechecking relentlessly to wash away those slim leads. As a Habs fan, it brings me great joy that the team has been able to taste the fruits of their new “be the aggressor” approach in the third period by out-scoring Tampa and Winnipeg by a combined 5-0 margin. While their ability to finish off an opponent in the third has been impressive of late, being able to overcome giving up the first goal in each game has been even more eye-opening and uncharacteristic.

This has always been a team built to play a fast, exciting, highly-skilled brand of hockey. For whatever reason, Jacques Martin always opted to install a restrictor plate on this high-performance sports car. It was a crime to try and stifle the obvious creativity of Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, PK Subban, Lars Eller and Andrei Kostitsyn and the finishing ability of Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty, Brian Gionta and Michael Cammalleri. If you have an elite goaltender behind you, support him by taking a “score more than opponent” approach rather than an “allow fewer than the opponent” mentality. No one thrives by fearing mistakes and even world-class goaltenders fall under that thinking.

This sudden epiphany of how to play winning hockey will likely prove to be “too little, too late” for this team and outside influences will likely end Randy Cunneyworth’s tenure as coach after the season but the team and organization should remember the current lessons being learned that are putting so many more smiles not only in the stands but on the Habs bench and putting points back next to their name in the standings. This off-season will be among the more critical in recent Canadiens history for many reasons but regardless of whether the team chooses to rebuild or simply re-tool, team harmony should be the primary concern in whatever direction Geoff Molson chooses to go.

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Habs Don’t Need A Rebuild

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Let’s all take a deep breath, or twenty.

Do the the Habs stink? You bet they do. Tough to admit, especially when they are “only 3 points out of a playoff spot” but you are what your record says you are, so yes – right now, the Habs stink. How did they get to this damp and sullen place so quickly? In this blogger’s view, two solid years of poor strategic coaching, coupled with non-existent tactical coaching, questionable development of youth and inept managerial moves have crippled this team. Ownership has a good amount of stink on it as well for placing blind faith in a team that was hired to keep corrupted and brainwashed masses content.

The team was never retooled properly following the collapse and subsequent mass exodus of 2009. Jacques Martin was brought in to breathe new life in to the team, as well as to bring a level of professionalism behind the bench that had been missing for years. Surely he had a hand in selecting the players that they eventually traded for, and signed during that summer’s free agency period. Why on God’s green earth they opted for small, offensive-minded players, we will never know. Sure, they’re loveable, respectable, classy guys, which makes trying to be objective about them much more difficult, but their contributions – or lack thereof speak for themselves. The style of play that was promised by Jacques Martin was never delivered – not even close. Instead, he enforced the exact opposite style of play that would have maxed out the players’ talents.  What’s the French translation for ‘appeasement’? The ruse worked for a while…or did it? I think we can all agree that goaltending saved not just the team’s bacon, but the entire barn. Whether Carey Price since the start of last year, or Halak two seasons ago, the trip to the Conference Finals was enchanting, but it was a fairy tale. An anomaly. The road taken was unsustainable. When a game plan calls for a goaltender to stop 40-50 shots per night, and asks defensemen to block almost as many, with the desired end result being a 2-1 victory, it’s only a matter of time before the trap door that you voluntarily stood on top of opens wide. Sidney Crosby’s bewilderment at the conclusion of game 7 spoke for nearly everyone, much of Habsland included.

Last year the team had its ups and downs, eventually bowing out in the first round to the Bruins in seven games. Many saw that as some sort of accomplishment, considering the “injuries”. Yawn. News flash! there are no moral victories in the playoffs. None. There never were, and there never will be. Talk of “tomorrow’s another day” is for the regular season. The playoffs, on the other hand are merciless and not for the faint of heart. Any talk otherwise stems from apologists, exonerators and excuse makers. Pass me the barf bag. The cracks in the foundation were deep and visible, but covered up with Carey Price’s excellence. That Carey Price is even in a Habs sweater is a stroke of luck.

Fast forward to this season, and the slow slide to oblivion accelerated to avalanche speed, and not even Price’s continued fine play could stop it. Jacques Martin quickly lost the pulse of his team, which is not surprising given how he stamped out any semblance of energy and passion – what was left to measure when you don’t communicate with your players? He soon ran out of places to hide, kids to throw under the bus and people to blame other than himself by the time the axe fell. Last Saturday ended what was an infernally long tenure that really wasn’t that long at all; it just felt that way, which is a damning testament to the type of stodgy, stale, flaccid hockey that Jacques Martin had installed. It was, and still is boring, which speaks to the damage that he has done, and that Randy Cunneyworth has been tasked with fixing. Nothing is worse than failing, sleep-inducing hockey, especially when you’re one of the priciest tickets in the league. Nothing. Near the end, Jacques Martin said that it was less about entertaining the fans. Way to keep up with the times, Coach.

Now, as Randy Cunneyworth struggles to pump out the water, he seems as powerless as a nine volt battery trying to power a nuclear submarine. It isn’t his fault; he’s been set up for failure by ownership and management, and the jackals in the French media have already begun gnawing at the carcass before it has even flatlined. Dead man walking.

The result is a team in disarray, or at least the semblance of disarray. There are still some good players on this team: Cole, Pacioretty, Gionta, Plekanec, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are all eminently capable of 25 goals each, but only one or two of those guys will hit that number…three would be stretching it. As the team spirals to 12th place and poised to sink even lower, fans are predictably calling for a tank & rebuild in the same vein as Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, and other teams that reaped all-star talent at the draft table by being appallingly bad for many years.

As tempting as it may be to dream of a lottery draft pick, it’s not needed for this iteration of the team. Serious tweaking? Absolutely. Blowing it up? Stop it. While this season is on the verge of being lost, (if it wasn’t lost in October) there is plenty of hope for 2012-13, provided Geoff Molson gets his priorities straight and stares down those that insist that they have a say in running the team.

Re-signing Price, Subban and Gorges are no-brainer decisions. Bringing back Andrei Kostitsyn isn’t quite a no-brainer, but it’s damn close. Unless he can fetch a king’s ransom in return, he should be retained, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t trust Gauthier to fetch that kingly ransom. Thanks to Gauthier’s panic moves designed to save his, and Jacques Martin’s job (bonjour to those who said that a healthy Campoli and Kaberle would fix all that ails the team), he has saddled the team with some contracts that are suffocating the Habs, and will continue to do so until they’re off the books. That being the case, whoever has the title of General Manager in the summer – because it won’t be Pierre Gauthier – should focus on moving Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Kaberle at all costs. Freeing up that kind of scratch and replacing it with the right pieces and coupled with the proper Coaching, will set it back on course in a hurry.

There’s no need to flush out everyone over the age of 27. No need to be voluntary doormats for years to come. No need to waste some of Carey Price’s best years. As long as pillars like Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec, Cole, Eller, Gorges and Gionta are around, there is plenty to play for, and it’s all the more reason to get things right without waving the white flag of failure.The only capitulations that should be made, if the team can’t pull out of this tailspin absolutely and immediately (meaning tonight vs Winnipeg, and no more consolation loser points), is to trade pending UFAs (except Gorges and Kostitsyn) for assets. That’s it.

The recipe, as challenging as it may be to implement, is really quite simple:

1- Get the organizational priorities straight. Winning? Or pandering & political appeasement?
2- Hire the best General Manager money can buy, language be damned.
3- Let him get the best Coach, and ask him to pretty please with a cherry on top become competent in French as quickly as possible.
4- Sign or trade for players that match the new Coach’s style and fill the team’s gaps.
5- Enjoy hockey again.

Now, if only Geoff Molson can summon the courage to stomp out the filthy agenda-driven rats in the Francophone media and political arena who have infested and warped the views of Habs fans all over Quebec, things might get moving in the right direction. These clowns have once again made the Canadiens a laughing stock, not only in hockey circles, but in global news. It’s not because “outsiders don’t understand”. It’s because it’s farcical that a segment of Quebecers carry the sense of entitlement that allows them to believe that they control the team. The legacy of the Canadiens hangs from the rafters of the Bell Center, and it was built by French AND English. The legacy doesn’t exist anywhere else. It’s a sport. You want to make a statement about your culture and language? Do it through other channels and stay out of the hockey rink. People and organizations trying to shape the Canadiens to reflect their narrow-minded, pig-headed views have no place in the business of sport.

The ball is in your court, Mr. Molson.

Open Letter to French Media

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Dear French Media,

I know many of you are lining up your next column, decrying the fact that the Habs have hired an interim anglo head coach.

In the interests of letting you get on with pushing your infantile agenda, I’ll be brief.

The Canadiens can provide their fans with “the minimum of respect” by putting a winning product on the ice.

The convenience and access provided to you by a French coach has nothing to do with wins, points and Stanley Cups. Your sense of entitlement has made you arrogant. You’ll tell us that the vast majority of the province is French, and you are right. But that same majority also wants wins over an easier-to-understand press conference. That’s to say nothing of the global community of Canadiens fans who want, and deserve the best chance at cheering for an elite team.

Your constant agenda pushing that would see the Canadiens continuing to fish where there are no trophy fish is an outdated and ignorant view that serves nobody but yourselves. Now, not all of you share this view. I urge you to speak up in favour of a meritocracy.

If a French, or bilingual candidate should arise, and he happens to be the best man for the job, by all means hire him. And by “best man for the job” I mean the man that can get the most out of the players on the ice. But to settle for less than the best so that your job easier is a disservice to everyone that you so badly want the Canadiens to “respect”.

Like the departed Coach, your reasoning and logic is flimsy, outdated, tired and reeks of entitlement. You don’t own the Canadiens. You do not deserve to have a say in who gets hired. Your job is to report on the daily happenings of the team. No more, no less.

Get over yourselves.

Like Poison

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Jacques Martin’s mere presence behind the bench has become deathly poisonous to the Habs. From a terrible strategy game-in, game-out to throwing his young players under the bus, this Coach is about as positive and nurturing a presence as Palpatine is leading the republic. Hell, he even had the audacity to hint that Price, his only hope at his $500,000 playoff bonus was a reason for losing.

They couldn’t beat the best at home, and they couldn’t beat the worst at home. What’s left?

He MUST go.

Fire Jacques Martin.