Tag Archives: 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens


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Total Reversal: Six Concrete, Positive Stats

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As painful as it might be, think back to the Habs under the previous regime. Think of the team that was coached to play the trap when behind by two goals late in a game. Think of the constant circus surrounding the team. Think of the blown leads. Think of the negativity that the organization brought down on itself by hiring people who belonged in Montreal about as much as milk belongs in a Porsche’s fuel tank. The Canadiens were a laughing stock on and off the ice. Worse, they were not likeable save for a few players with irrepressible personality, respect and leadership qualities.

When the final siren mercifully blared, and the house was finally cleaned out, the search for the next leaders of the team was in full swing. In place of a flaccid management and coaching group, the Habs hired a rookie GM who looks good in a suit, and a coach who had been here before with less-than-stellar results. With no option other than to let things play out, Habs fans sat and waited with trepidation and guarded optimism.

The wait has been more than worth it, as the Habs almost immediately began to systematically erase their ill-gotten yet well-deserved reputation.

Here are a few select stats to show just how far the Habs have come in so a short time:

  1. Through 26 games last year, the Habs managed 3 or more goals in a game just 13 times, going 7-3-3 in those games. Not too shabby as far as records go. This year? They’ve done it in 19 of 26 games, going 16-2-1 when doing so.
  2. You may recall the phenomenon known as the Habs Threshold of Doom, where they were essentially guaranteed to lose once the opponent scored its third goal? Through 26 games last year the Habs had coughed up 3 or more goals 14 times, and won only one of those games (1-8-5). So far this season, the Habs have given up 3 or more goals 10 times, yet have managed a winning record; going 5-3-2 in those games. In a complete turnaround over last year, the Habs are almost a lock this season when they score three or more, whereas last year, once the opposition notched their third goal, it was safe to go to bed.
  3. Through 26 games this year, the Habs have scored 8 more even strength goals than last year’s team over the same amount of games. That may not sound like much, but over the course of 82 games that translates to 25 more even strength goals. It’s a much bigger difference than the incorrect belief that the 2011-12 Habs would have been saved if they had a powerplay that was merely average.
  4. While fans and media froth at the mouth over the powerplay’s “ineffectiveness”, the Canadiens are improving in the key, but somehow overlooked area of even strength scoring. Last year through 26 games, the Canadiens were averaging a meagre 1.88 even strength goals per game. That put unrealistic pressure on a comatose powerplay in a year where powerplay opportunities were as rare as buried treasure. Averaging just 0.46 goals per game, the powerplay was of no use at all. By contrast, this year’s team is scoring 2.2 even strength goals per game while more than doubling their powerplay output over last season by scoring 0.96 power play goals per game. All told, that’s a net gain of 0.82 goals per game over last year’s team. Surely a healthy roster helps, especially a healthy Markov for the man advantage. Jacques Martin did not have this luxury, but he also did nothing to adapt to the strengths of his players at any point, either.
  5. If there’s been a down side, it’s that the Canadiens have been a little too reliant on the powerplay. The good news is it’s a problem that they’ve been rectifying rather quickly, with stellar results. In the first quarter of the season the Habs powerplay generated 40% of the team’s total offense. That’s way, way too high. During the second quarter of the season, and including the first two games of the third quarter, the Habs powerplay generated 22.5% of the team’s total offense. That’s much closer to where elite teams live. Incidentally, the Habs have gone 11-1-3 during that stretch. Think about that for a moment: the 2013 Habs have massively cut their reliance on the powerplay in a short time in 2013, while at the same time doubling powerplay output over the deadbeat 2011-12 team. ’Nuff said!
  6. Discipline and a system that suits the players has done wonders, too. Through 26 games in 2011-12, the Canadiens were on the penalty kill more than they were on the powerplay (102 powerplays vs 105 penalties against). Not good for a team built to succeed on the powerplay. Through 26 games this year, the Habs are enjoying a major surplus in powerplay opportunities (119 powerplays vs 98 penalty kill situations).

Before the season started, my expectations for this season were low, low, low. Subterranean low. I thought they might hang around long enough to be considered a bubble team, but that was it. They’d be sellers at the deadline and stock up for a deep dive in the 2013 Amateur Draft. Less than two months later, they’ve certainly surpassed my expectations, the expectations of every cynical fan, and likely their own internal expectations. The best part is they’ve done it the right way, and they’ve done it without being overly reliant on any one facet of the game. They have quickly corrected course when they needed to, and have been resilient. Their game is for the most part, sustainable and in some areas, like faceoffs, there is still room for improvement.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Control Yourself

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It’s been days since the beginning of free agency, and yet there’s been no shortage of analysis and second-guessing that is now a summertime tradition. When Marc Bergevin took over from Pierre Gauthier, most Habs fans expected big things. Happy things. Splashy things. He’s the white knight that will not only change the way the Habs operated, he would also just as quickly change the face of the team on the ice. In the brief time since he was hired (known as the honeymoon period) he has already managed to show that his operation will vastly improve internal and external communications. That’s fine for now, but nobody will care about either of those things if the team continues to be a doormat if and when the season starts.

For Canadiens fans, the highlights of this past season were (in no particular order):

  • Jacques Martin being fired
  • Pierre Gauthier being fired
  • Looking forward to the draft
  • Looking forward to July 1st
(Bergevin’s hiring, other hirings, the draft and free agency were all after the season ended, so they don’t count.)

Considering sports are all about what happens on the field of play, these off-ice moves, dates and events strongly indicate the type of season the 2011-12 campaign was for the Habs.

Bergevin’s puzzle is coming together. Yes, there are still holes to be plugged and these holes won’t be easy to fill. That said, Habs fans ought to be cut a certain amount of slack for hoping that Bergevin was going wave his wand and fix everything overnight. From pining for Jagr, to crying about Parenteau, Parise and Semin, fans wanted Bergevin to make a statement. They wanted him to snag brand name players that are easily pictured potting 30 goals. The sad reality is that the previous regime wilfully put the Canadiens in to a very large and muddy ditch with reckless, desperate acquisitions dating back to the 2009 retooling, right through until the Bourque acquisition. The Canadiens restoration project is going to take longer than what one weak free agent class can fix; the fruits from what was reportedly a solid 2012 draft for the Habs are years away from drawing cheers at the Bell Center, but Bergevin has been busy laying the groundwork for the type of identity and character he’d like his team to embody. Travis Moen is back. Added to the fold are Brandon Prust, Colby Armstrong and Francis Bouillon. It doesn’t take a genius to see the common traits. Clearly the Canadiens are going to be a tougher, peskier team to play against, and that in itself should bring a sigh of relief and smile to the faces of Habs fans. How this “truculence”, as Brian Burke would say translates to wins is anyone’s guess as truculence by itself doesn’t score goals. But if it sends the opponents home with some loosened teeth and battered bodies, then the Canadiens are a step ahead of where they were. The Bell Center needs to become more inhospitable, and the on-ice product can use a good dose of asshole. Save the ‘classiness’ for pre-game presentations and the handshake line. It’s time for the Habs to give back what other teams have fed them, and it’s time to bring some smashmouth on the road as well.

Bergevin may be more or less finished shopping in the clammy UFA market, but he still needs to find a top-six winger and top-four defenseman, which will now likely come via trade. Does he have the depth and assets to make such big moves? With a glut of second-round picks in 2013, and a number of prospects ready to turn pro, he has enough to address at least one of those glaring holes. Will he move those assets, or should he move those assets will be questions that we kick around as the off-season drags on. There’s also the non-trivial matter of what should be done with the sad-sack contracts of Gomez, Bourque and Kaberle? Bergevin would have to wave a telephone pole-sized wand to make those 3 disappear, and again, thank the previous regime for saddling the Habs with at least 2 horrid contracts.

As an era with a new look is massing its forces, and drawing up plans, it will be important to remain patient all over again. Building a team that is a perennial contender is not done on July 1st. Everyone wants their team to spend big when the free agency season opens, but from what we’ve seen not just in Montreal, but all over the league is that shopping for big names on July 1st often leaves you in cap hell at some point. Proper building is done through the draft. It’s done through shrewd cap management, clever, timely trades and proper asset management. Bergevin has to find a way to navigate the bad contracts that he inherited, while at the same time getting the team back in to the playoffs immediately, and simultaneously building for the future. That’s a triple-whammy mandate that would challenge any General Manager. Right now, we’re asking Marc Bergevin to win the race aboard the league’s oldest, creakiest vessel with no rudder and tons of dead weight in the cargo hold. All the hot air blown throughout Habs land won’t push his ship over the finish line any faster, so let’s just give him the benefit of the doubt and the time needed to make this team his own.

Random Friday Musings – May 4th

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Another work week is just about in the books, and as is usually the case, the sports world has given us plenty to talk about. Here’s some brief thoughts on what’s gone on, starting with…

Marc Bergevin as Habs GM. Without knowing the guy, or much about his body of work, I really like the hire. He comes from a winning organization and was an integral part of transforming it from a laughing stock to a recent Cup winner. Here’s hoping that he brought a lot of knowledge with him so that he can do the same in Montreal. He has oh so much work to do, and not a lot of time to do it in. Read more on what I think he has on his task list here. Did the Habs get the best man for the job, regardless of politics? Hard to say, but given the realities (self-imposed realities or not) of the Montreal market, you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody who doesn’t like the hiring. He made a terrific first impression at his press conference, and seems to be the opposite of the life-sucking Pierre Gauthier, which already is an improvement.

L.A. Kings roll. Raise your hand if you thought the Kings would not only beat the President’s Trophy winning Canucks, but be on the verge of sweeping the third overall St. Louis Blues, the league’s best defensive team. What the Kings are doing is nothing short of remarkable. Of course, any team with Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick, and Dustin Brown should never be written off, but it’s the lesser known role players who are chipping in at key times, which is critical in the playoffs. Are they a team of destiny? They are poised to dump the Kings, and whoever advances between Nashville and Phoenix is going to have their hands full. Let’s look ahead to a future that sees the Kings knocking off the Rangers in the Cup finals. It would be the most remarkable Cup win in history (or one of the most remarkable). Who else could boast knocking off the top 3 teams in the league during the regular season? That said, the last 15 consecutive Cup winners started the playoffs with home ice advantage, so the smart money is still on any of the remaining 1-4 seeds.

Shame on Radulov, Kostitsyn. No, I’m not going to play the “they’re Russian / Belarussian, what did you expect?” card. That’s nonsense and if you subscribe to that theory, kindly take the down the Don Cherry poster that is hanging from the ceiling above your bed. Still, these two offensive talents were brought in to add scoring punch to a lineup that has everything else. That they decided to break curfew in order to stay out drinking – on the eve of a playoff game – is a supremely arrogant and selfish act. It shows disrespect to the team and organization that put their faith in them at the most critical time, and it’s a slap in the face to teammates who would probably also to prefer to be out having a good time, but put the team first by adhering to the team curfew. The Predators are equipped to go all the way, and now these two selfish turds have put their coach and GM in a really tough spot. They won game 3 handily without Radulov and Kostitsyn, and the popular refrain is that you do not alter a winning lineup in the playoffs. Another loss will push the Preds to the brink and at that point you’ll see both back in action. But it would likely be too late. Depending on your point of view, Coach Barry Trotz has an easy call in front of him – let them sit in the press box. Should the Preds lose tonight, however, there will be no shortage of people who say the punishment extended beyond it’s original definition, and that Trotz hurt the team. In the end, the blame falls squarely on two players (one of whom I defended quite vehemently) who put their Coach in a position he should never have to be in come playoff time. Here’s hoping they both land in the KHL next season, which is where their selfish actions will likely land them anyway.

Unfitting end of a great career? I’m no Yankees fan, but when I heard that Mariano Rivera, hands-down the greatest closer to ever play the game blew out his knee, I was really sad. I can’t think of a more unfitting and unfair end to a stellar career than shagging fly balls in Kansas City. Yet another reason to loathe the perpetual machine of failure called the Royals. Could he not have done it falling awkwardly off the mound instead? At 42 years old, it’s hard to imagine Rivera will want to put in the hard work required to rehab a shredded knee, just to play another season. He was already contemplating retirement after this year and this injury may have forced his hand. It’s a pity. He deserved to go out to a chorus of cheers at Yankee Stadium, in the post-season after striking out some hapless, knee-buckled chap with his devastating cutter pitch. That likely won’t happen now, and baseball is the biggest loser for it.

Powerless Pujols. The last time Albert Pujols went this long without hitting a home run, he was in his mother’s womb. I don’t think I’d be concerned if I was an Angels fan – yet. He’s still this era’s most feared hitter and it’s just a matter of time before he finds his stroke. He’s only hitting .204, which is way, way, way below his standard of excellence but again, this guy is a beast and will get it back. He’s patient, poised, has a great eye, a terrific swing and has been as consistent as it gets. If he doesn’t get it back, the Angels will have another 9 years to figure out what to do with him, and it would be an even more mysterious drop in an elite level athlete than Tiger Woods’ own collapse. With the Angels scuffling at the bottom of the AL West, the pressure will continue to mount on Pujols as his power outage drags on. But if there’s one guy who can weather this and then carry a team on his back, it’s Pujols. Hey, at least he hasn’t made an error yet, right?

Junior Seau’s suicide. Not much is sadder in sports than learning about the death of one of the greats. Usually we hear about them passing away at a ripe old age after living a full life, but in recent years it seems that players from hockey and especially football are dropping like flies – by their own hand. That’s even more tragic. The connection between head trauma caused by contact, punches, collisions leading to eventual depression and finally suicide is going to be mentioned again and again, and while leagues try to cover their butts, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that they are facing a serious issue that they need to get to the bottom of. Because if they don’t do it by voluntarily, there’s a little thing called the government that will make them do it, and then we’ll be really unhappy. The NFL already has a boatload of lawsuits against them to deal with. There will be more. Many more. They can’t avoid this forever, and the NHL would be wise to get out in front of this issue instead of trying to preserve what seems to be rotten.

Looking Back, Looking Ahead, Looking Elsewhere

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With six months of misery is now behind us, we can look forward to much brighter days. But Canadiens fans and especially the Canadiens organization itself can never be allowed to forget the embarrassment and damage that this season has inflicted. The old adage that those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it very much applies. Time to start getting things right.

The bookends to the last 4 seasons have been absolute gong shows (the pathetically meek centennial sweep, and this year’s 6-month clown show). It doesn’t take long to sully the name of a once respected brand – just ask Jim Balsillie and RIM. We Habs fans may not see it, or may not want to admit and acknowledge it, but the rest of the world certainly sees it, which is why so many fans bristle when we hear “outsiders” giving the team anything short of a verbal tongue bath.

What does it take to build (in the case of the Canadiens, rebuild) a lasting legacy of excellence, respect and prestige? The Habs once had these elements in spades, but through feckless management, and constant distraction, have totally lost their way. Where once upon a time anything but the Cup was seen as failure, now 8th place is viewed as an accomplishment. As a fan fed up with hapless mediocrity, it felt like winning was treated as something that was great if it happened, as long if politics and profits were taken care of first and foremost. Over the past few seasons, the performance of the team has not matched the presentation and marketing. During the press conference in which the firing of Pierre Gauthier was announced, Molson alluded to raising the organizational standards. No longer would 8th place be the measuring stick, or the goal to shoot for. Who can blame him, when the last 15 consecutive Cup winners started the playoffs with home ice advantage.

How long does it take to rebuild a legacy? One season of being back in the playoffs in 2012-13 won’t restore the Canadiens’ name. It will merely be one more step in the up-and-down pattern that this team has succumbed to. Even if the Canadiens somehow win the Cup next season, it will be an aberration until they cement many years of concrete results to make the Habs relevant and powerful again. This is why hiring the best people for the vacant GM job, and the quasi-vacant Head Coaching job is so important. You want to be the best? Go and hire the best.

The common template for success today is the Detroit Red Wings. They are in a class far above that of the Canadiens today (don’t try to tell me that the Canadiens beating the Wings 7-2 in a meaningless regular season game means they are actually pretty close to each other). The Red Wings have missed the playoffs twice since 1986, the year that the Habs won their 23rd Stanley Cup. The year Patrick Roy, who is now long retired, was a lanky rookie. The Wings often enter the playoffs as a favourites, as evidenced by 16 first place division finishes since 1986, and resulting in four Stanley Cup parades since 1997. They have just reeled off their 12th consecutive 100-point season (by contrast, the Habs have had two 100-point seasons since 1986). The Wings scout well. They draft well – without the benefit of selecting from the cream of the crop. They develop their youth well. They are well run – Habs fans are salivating at the idea of the Canadiens merely talking to their assistant General Manager Jim Nill! They transitioned from the free spending era to the salary cap era seamlessly and have never wavered. They are well coached, as virtually no Coach in the league is as respected as Mike Babcock is. They hire the best personnel, without exceptions, and surround them with even more top-notch talent. They make the thought of not being a Detroit Red Wing unbearable by being the embodiment of the environment that every other team wants for their organization, but to which most fall way short of.

In summary, the Wings are what the Habs used to be.

The Canadiens 2012-13 season went off the rails right from the very beginning. A poor preseason and a glacially cool start saw the Canadiens with one foot in the grave before Halloween. Injuries kicked the legs out from the other still-standing, but wonky limb, an ill-suited coach was replaced by an unprepared Coach who was immediately undermined, and the coffin was closed. The rest was just waiting for the oxygen to run out. Various players on the roster played their hearts out as if there was hope – Josh Gorges, Carey Price, Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban to name a few. But tidal wave after tidal wave of distraction washed over this group, and the frustrating part is that most of it was self-inflicted. Clearly, the Canadiens were not reading the Detroit Red Wings manual on how to run a team.

This off-season will be a particularly long one for Habs fans, but in typical Montreal fashion, this summer is going to be not only eventful and controversial, but also critical to the team’s future success. Geoff Molson has to put his money where his mouth is and set this team back on the right path. This is his biggest chance to get it right. The team will be going in to it’s 20th season without a Cup parade, and it won’t be long until Habs fans start becoming the butt of the same jokes that Leafs fans have been for 45 years running.

We look forward to the draft lottery, the draft itself, free agency, and finally the golf tournament that officially launches the pre-season. But if Molson doesn’t find a way to change the culture of the organization by hiring great hockey minds, then we can look forward to another year of the same old, same old, and find yet more convenient excuses to explain the team’s misfortunes.

There are certainly reasons to be “all in” for the Canadiens future, but until Molson takes charge and starts doing things the right way, I’ll only be cautiously optimistic.

Why the McGuire Hate?

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Once again, Paul Branchaud has lent his voice to this blog, and presents a nicely written defense of hockey analyst Pierre McGuire’s candidacy as Habs GM. Paul’s opinions are his own, and not necessarily endorsed by cowhideandrubber writers, but either way you are encouraged to leave a comment below with your thoughts, or to contact Paul personally via twitter with thoughts.

After suffering through the most dismal season in the 40 years I’ve been following the team, the announcement yesterday that Pierre Gauthier had been relieved of his duties as the General Manager of the Montreal Canadiens came as a great relief to fans of the team everywhere. The indictments against Gauthier are plentiful, so I won’t perform an autopsy on Gauthier’s tenure as GM (or Gainey’s role as special advisor) and the way the team was run.

As the clock runs out on the 2011-12 season, I’m left with a feeling that, despite the basement-dwelling record, this isn’t the worst team I’ve rooted for. What truly made this season unbearable, without a doubt, was Gauthier. For a guy who did his level best to be invisible, running the team with secrecy and impunity, he managed to be front and center for most fans’ anger, frustration, and vitriol. If, on a scale of 1 to 10 of camerawhoredom, Brian Burke is a 10, Pierre Gauthier was a minus 15. I can’t think of any other team where the General Manager has worked so hard to remove himself from public view while also being the lightning rod for what ails the team.

The desire to be rid of Gauthier was so strong that lists of possible replacements (and the requirements the candidate should meet) have been discussed for months. Now that the Canadiens are in the “post-ghost” era, speculation on who will be the next GM will run more rampant than a 6-year old fueled by Red Bull and Timbits.

One of the frequently mentioned names is Pierre McGuire, and, of all the potential Habs’ GM candidates, his candidacy seems to be the most polarizing. People either feel that he should be given a chance or kept as far away from the Bell Center as possible.

In the interests of disclosure, I am part of the former group; I feel that McGuire can bring a wealth of knowledge and enthusiasm to the position and, if Geoff Molson is to be believed that the “organizational culture is to support and adopt this passion for victory” and that “nothing else matters”, he can set the course for a ship that has been rudderless for too long. That said, I don’t think that McGuire is the ONLY choice, or even the BEST choice (my preferred candidate is Jim Nill). Short of Patrick Roy (who I feel is too tightly wound and emotional), I will defer to the Canadiens’ selection team and accept their decision, trusting that they are serious about restoring the team to a winning path.

Rather than discuss McGuire’s qualifications, though, I want to examine some of the most commonly used reasons people don’t want McGuire as GM. As I stated above, McGuire elicits strong opinions, and the mere mention of his name often brings out the haters. I’ve always found it interesting that listeners to TSN Radio 990 have, in general, been McGuire proponents, whereas people on Twitter and hockey message boards tend to pan McGuire. The six arguments I’ve heard most often against McGuire’s candidacy are:

  • He’s been out of hockey for too long
  • He has no front office experience/hasn’t paid his dues
  • His public criticisms of teams/players affect his credibility
  • He changes his opinion too often
  • He’s regularly undervalued Canadiens’ talent
  • If he’s so qualified, why hasn’t he landed a job before?

They are all valid points and I would fully expect the Canadiens to grill McGuire on these and many more points if he is indeed granted an interview.

He’s been out of hockey for too long

I don’t get this argument at all. I can’t think of anyone who has been more omnipresent at as many different levels of hockey as McGuire has been over the last 18 years. Since he was fired from the Hartford Whalers, he had a few jobs as a scout and coach for various pro and minor-pro teams before finding a niche as a color analyst.

I believe his advancement in television is due to his ability to recognize talent and identify what differentiates one player from another—in other words, his ability to scout players. His network of contacts in hockey and knowledge of players can’t be denied, and I doubt that anyone who’s supposedly been “out of hockey” as long as McGuire has would have quite the same Blackberry address book.

He has no front office experience/hasn’t paid his dues

A fair argument and one that Habs fans like to equate with the regrettable Réjean Houle reign of error. But for every Reggie Houle and Mel Bridgeman, there are successful counterpoints: Steve Yzerman has done a great job in Tampa and, despite a record that is barely better than the Canadiens, Garth Snow has been slowly improving the New York Islanders after taking over from the wasteland that Mike Milbury had left behind.

Previous front-office experience, especially in a winning organization, is important and can’t be discounted, but neither should an inexperienced candidate be denied the chance to show that his plan can bear fruit. Variants on the lack of experience argument include McGuire hasn’t “paid his dues” or that he feels he is “entitled to the job”. If everyone had to “pay their dues”, the road to an NHL GM’s post would be long and would probably feature more recycling than is already happening. The entitlement comment speaks to what goes on inside Pierre McGuire’s head and I’m not paying Miss Cleo to tell me that. Who hasn’t applied for a job that they lacked experience for, but still felt that they could do? If you’re not dreaming big, you’re wasting your potential.

His public criticisms of teams/players affect his credibility

I might buy this argument if McGuire’s criticisms were in any way personal. For the most part, I find his criticisms are not malicious; he calls things as he sees them. People may not agree with his opinion, and that’s their right. But I don’t believe that McGuire has ever set out to humiliate or demean with his comments. He is an observer of the game he loves, and puts good hockey ahead of rooting interest for any specific team.

People also need to keep in mind that, as a hockey analyst on TV and radio, he has to voice his opinions—good and bad—about what is happening on the ice and within the league. The role of broadcaster is vastly different from that of hockey executive even if they use many of the same basic evaluation skills. At the moment, McGuire (the analyst) is paid first to entertain, second to educate, so the comments and opinions need to follow his job description. To question McGuire’s credibility based on the comments he makes as a media personality, and to use it as an argument against his ability to be a GM, is comparing apples to chopped liver.

He changes his opinion too often

Herein lays the beauty and curse of our current media age. Everything is recorded and saved. No doubt that McGuire has stated one opinion only to change it a few weeks, months, or years later. We all change our views and opinions; this is not a failing unique to McGuire or to any other candidate for the Canadiens GM post. Let he who hath never changed their mind cast the first puck.

I do see where this argument comes into play, though. Because he changes his opinion, it means he misjudged the first time and, therefore, he was wrong or made a mistake. Context is important, though: did he change his opinion quickly? Did he change his opinion as a result of a player’s injury? Did he change his opinion based on an unexpected change in a player’s performance? Hindsight is 20/20, and the comments anyone makes today are subject to change at a later date based on additional information.

McGuire changing his opinion is no more of a concern than any other NHL executive’s. I can’t recall an instance where McGuire, upon changing his opinion, refused to acknowledge his previous statement, or otherwise denied having made a contrary opinion. I may be wrong, but if I am, I’d like some evidence of such a denial before I believe it would affect his ability to make decisions for a hockey team.

Final point about McGuire’s changing opinions: he’s making his statements as a media analyst, without the benefit of a team of scouts, and he has a limited amount of time to cover specific topics in his radio hits and television spots. I’d like to see any long-tenured NHL GM work under the same pressure and not make the occasional mistake.

He’s regularly undervalued Canadiens’ talent

I’m of two minds on this. On one hand, as I’ve previously stated, McGuire is a fan of hockey first, so the perceived undervaluing or criticizing of any Canadiens’ players is tough love. On the other hand, it’s never easy to hear someone make less than favorable comments on your favorite team or players, but if that offends, then you need thicker skin. People often hear what they want to hear, so anything that doesn’t validate a decision made by the team can be perceived as being negative.

A favorite example of changed opinion/undervalued talent is the 2005 draft of Carey Price. McGuire’s puzzlement at the draft choice was based more on what the team needed more at that time: a big centerman. At the time of the draft, the Canadiens were fairly stable in goal (the book on Cristobal Huet had yet to be published), but small and weak down the middle. Almost 7 years later and the Habs still need a big body at center. He never said it was a bad pick, just not what the team needed at the time.

I also believe that McGuire, as a Montrealer, has a soft spot for the Canadiens. His employers, TSN (Toronto) and NBC (New York), could care less about any deep-down love or allegiance he may have for the Habs, so it’s possible that he overcompensates to remove possible accusations of homerism. (After yesterday’s federal budget, that may be my last chance to throw in my two cents’ worth.)

If he’s so qualified, why hasn’t he landed a job before?

On my drive into work this morning, TSN690′s Price and Starr took calls on potential GM candidates and when McGuire was mentioned, this very point was brought up. It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall for those final meetings with the shortlisted candidates, but sadly everything is speculative and, very likely, subject to non-disclosure agreements.

Of all the arguments against McGuire’s candidacy, this is the hardest one to counter because it requires the least amount of effort to use and cannot be deconstructed due to a lack of any public information. I can only guess, but possible reasons McGuire not selected could include:

  • He had set out a plan that ownership felt would take too long to bear fruit
  • His view of hockey operations was too far afield from the owner’s
  • He wanted an organizational restructuring that was not well received
  • His salary demands were outside of the team’s set budget
  • He had a different view of the hockey market and how to draw/increase/maintain fan support

McGuire has made it fairly clear that if he were to return to an NHL team, the fit had to be right. He has a good career in broadcasting; one that affords him summers off and probably a salary that he’d be hard-pressed to match in the NHL. I understand that he would only jump if the conditions were perfect—and who knows if that opportunity will ever come?

So What Now?

I would bear no ill will towards Pierre McGuire, and would totally understand if the Canadiens came calling and he turned them down. This Montreal hockey market is nothing but self-chumming, shark-infested waters and it would seem that only a masochist would take on such a thankless job. That said, I think that McGuire might make an excellent GM because he is a solid communicator, his hockey knowledge is sound, and I’m pretty sure he’d surround himself with talented people to ensure not only a return to, but the long-term, continued success of the most storied professional hockey team.

Pierre Gauthier Kicked to the Curb!

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Habs nation rejoice! The man who helped run this franchise ashore has been canned, or resigned. Who cares- the point is he will no longer be a part of this team.

But before we pop the champagne corks, it’s important to note that the removal of Gauthier from the Habs GM chair is only one part of the equation. The ball is now in Geoff Molson’s court to find the best replacement, and not simply to bring in a guy who checks a bunch of politically-driven boxes.

With Bob Gainey still reportedly in the picture, it makes sense that the long awaited regime  and culture change that the Canadiens need, and that fans want to see is not a guarantee. If Gainey sticks around, you can bet that it will be the same old, same old, and that somebody with prior experience with the team and market will be brought in to fill Gauthier’s vacated office. Won’t that temper your excitement? I would certainly squash my excitement. Bob Gainey, as great a player as he was and as great a man that he is, his reign as Habs GM was only mildly successful. He is at least partly responsible for the mess that is this Habs organization. His time has expired with this team. It’s time for Gainey to move on.

EDIT: With reports today that the Canadiens suspended their 2012 exhibition game in Quebec City, it’s a strong clue that the Nordiques are going to back in the NHL. While the timing has some scratching their heads, the move is not only symbolic, and an olive branch to the fans – it’s the waving of the green flag – off to the races! If the Nordiques version 2.0 are in fact on their way back to Quebec City, then it stands to reason that they may also be in the hunt for a new General Manager (even though their current one has done good work). It would serve the Habs well to make sure they have the pick of the litter before local competition arrives to usurp potential candidates.

The day has come for Pierre Gauthier, and now it’s up to Molson to prove that he means it when he says that the Cup is his ultimate goal. Only a laser-like focus on excellence can bring the Cup back to Montreal, and hiring less than the best – for any reason at all can only lessen those chances.

 

Time for a Long Nap

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It’s nearly time to separate the wheat from the chaff. The NHL playoffs are around the corner and in what is normally a hopeful time for Habs fans, this season, there’s nothing. Nada. Zippo. Nothing to do but root against the Bruins, laugh at the Leafs as they cruise past 3000 days since their last playoff game, and take a long summertime nap. But around here, hockey never sleeps and we’re already asking if it’s October yet; the assumption being that there is confidence in this team’s ability to regroup, reload and reorient itself in hopes of a playoff appearance…or better next year.

Is it foolish to think that this team can rebound so quickly? The Flyers did it a couple years ago, and the Senators did it this year, after being terrible last season. The pieces are already in place for the Canadiens to be a competitive team on the ice, so why can’t the bleu-blanc-rouge rebound next year? Well, look up….look waaaaay up! It’s behind the bench and in the front office where the deep, dark questions lie. What becomes of Randy Cunneyworth? How long will it take for Geoff Molson to punt Pierre Gauthier to the curb once game 82 ends? In my view, before any changes on the roster take place, the coaching and management group needs to be rectified, and they need to be rectified without the restraints of politics and sociology attached to them. If the focus is on anything other than hiring the best people for the job, then the Canadiens are in for more mediocrity. And fans, who have become adept at telling themselves whatever they have to in order to maintain sanity (to no avail!) will be left hoping for things that never come true.

It will be up to Geoff Molson, his next General Manager, and his next coach to ensure that this team breaks free from the shackles of mediocrity that have rendered the Canadiens an afterthought in the NHL. The Habs used to be a model franchise, and used to have clout among the ranks of players and league executives. Those days are long gone, and if they are to be restored, it has to come from years of excellence on the ice, not from winning the “league’s most profitable team” award (though the Habs aren’t tops in this regard, either).

If you’re like me, you’re hoping that Geoff Molson has already begun targeting potential candidates for the soon-to-be vacant General Manager position. You’re also hoping that names like Patrick Roy and Bob Hartley are kept far away from the team. While many would be doing cartwheels to have an ex-legend behind the bench, we should be cautious. Certainly a boost of emotion after the sleep-inducing ways of Jacques Martin would be welcome behind the bench, and Patrick Roy could deliver that. But his greatest asset is also his weakest link. His volatile nature would consume the team and he would be the leading story every day. That’s not what “team” is about. In a city like Montreal, it’s a match set to a pool of kerosene.

Before we cast our collective gaze to the prospect pool, and to the list of free agents, we need to acknowledge that it is all for naught if the right suit-wearing men are not in place to steer the ship. Period.

The Habs will finally (hopefully?) be selecting in the top 3 at the amateur draft in June, so fans can hope that Trevor Timmins will wave his magic wand and pick the large, skilled centerman that the team has so desperately needed for so many years. Many have already zeroed in on Quebec Remparts standout Mikhail Grigorenko as the best bet, but even a teen fresh out of junior should not be parachuted in to the Canadiens’ franchise-saviour role so quickly. That’s a recipe for failure and the Canadiens cannot afford to see this draft pick go to waste.

We can hope that Markov remains healthy throughout the summer, and that he returns to form next fall. Together with P.K. Subban, the Canadiens will have 2 healthy, legitimate top-flight defensemen capable of playing 22 or more minutes per night. Buffered with the likes of future captain Josh Gorges, Alexei Yemelin, and hopefully a free agent addition such as Brad Stuart, the back end should be solid, if not spectacular.

It will be interesting to see what any given sportsbook review will think of the cellar-dwelling Canadiens when the preseason bets start rolling in. Will they give the Canadiens’ talented roster a pass for this abysmal season, or will they come down hard on them for this disaster and cast them as long underdogs yet again? It shouldn’t matter, as in past years the Canadiens have thrived as underdogs while choking like dogs when expected to succeed. That’s a cultural thing that must change, and usually takes time to accomplish. But with the right “win at all costs” attitude, at least you’ve given yourself a shot.

If Only They Had a Powerplay…

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Yeah, we know. The Canadiens powerplay sucks. Not so much lately, as the Minnesota Wild might attest, but overall, the powerplay has been an embarrassment, right?

While it’s a sad sight to see a team with the man advantage move the puck from one hopeless spot on the ice to the next, might I suggest that we’ve been overreacting to the importance of the powerplay?

When all is said and done, and this dreadful season becomes a thing of the past, fans and media are going to dissect where everything went wrong for the Canadiens. Most, if not all are going to blame injuries and the powerplay for the Canadiens’ dreadful season. I won’t touch the injury excuse, but using the powerplay as a crutch to explain the poor season is a myth, and something that needs to be purged.

The Canadiens currently have 35 powerplay goals in 243 opportunities for a success rate of 14.4%, good for 28th in the NHL (WE’RE NOT THE WORST!).

I’ve heard people say “if the Habs had just an average powerplay, the season would have gone differently”.

Oh yeah?

If the Canadiens had a league-average powerplay, which currently sits at a middling 17.1%, the Canadiens would have just 41 goals in their same 243 opportunities. That’s a total of 6 more goals on the year. SIX! What does an additional 6 goals fix? Impossible to say, but the likely answer is nothing. If anything, it takes the Habs from being a team set to pick in the top-3 in the league, to a team set to pick in the top 4.

If we take it to the extreme and grant the Canadiens a 21.8% success rate on the powerplay – which would make them league leaders (Oilers lead at 21.7%), they would have an additional 18 goals on the year based on 243 opportunities. What does 18 more goals on the year fix? Again, impossible to say, but it still likely doesn’t make the Canadiens a playoff team given the number of games they’ve lost by 2 or more goals (including times they were shutout). We can’t assume that those 18 additional goals all translate to points in the standings. Some goals would have been scored during games where the Canadiens were already blowing out a team, (i.e. maybe they beat the Jets 8-3 instead of 7-3 – Eller’s penalty shot goal notwithstanding). Some powerplay goals would have been scored in some the many games in which they were being blown out, or shutout. Undoubtedly an extra 18 powerplay goals would lift the Canadiens from the Conference basement, but keep in mind that I took this example to the extreme. It’s unrealistic and absurd to bestow a league-best powerplay on them. Even Andrei Markov couldn’t make this powerplay jump from 28th to 1st.

We’ve been spoiled by the Habs powerplay. Since the lockout, the Habs powerplay has been ranked 5th, 1st, 1st, 13th, 2nd, 7th, 28th (this year). Given this data, people naturally make the assumption that a poor powerplay = disaster.

If this is you, then you’ll love this part. While people from all walks of life tell us how important the powerplay is (I’m not here to say it is unimportant – as my friend @HabsWatch says – “weak even strength play and a strong powerplay is like going to a restaurant where the main course sucks, but dessert is good.”), the harsh reality is that if your game plan is based on powerplay success, you’re doomed. Why? Try this on for size: when the lockout ended, the league promised a crackdown on obstruction, fighting and other infractions in an attempt to clean up the sport and generate more offense. As a result, the average team during the 2005-06 season had 480 powerplay opportunities (5.85 chances per game). In the years since, that number has dropped precipitously to the point where the average team this year is expected to benefit from a total of just 277 powerplay opportunities (3.38 chances per game). I’ll let that sink in for a moment. And for the the visual learners out there, I give you this:

All good? Good. In 7 seasons, teams have had 203 powerplay chances taken away, or 2.48 chances less per game. All told, that’s a drop of 42% in powerplay opportunities. Try cutting your salary by 42% over 7 years and tell me if your bread is still being buttered.

It should also be noted that this season is not an aberration. You’ll notice the constant downward trend in powerplay chances. They have dropped in every single season since the lockout ended. Whether players are adjusting, or if the refs are more relaxed in their standards is irrelevant to this discussion. So if the powerplay is declining in importance, it must mean that even strength play is paramount.

Coming out of the lockout, the Habs decided to focus their energy and gameplan on powerplay success and goaltending, especially so during the Gainey-Gauthier-Martin retooling era that brought in small, skilled players that were totally inadequate for even strength hockey. What the Habs did not recognize is that the powerplay was already declining in importance at a rapid rate. Why they built the Habs to succeed in a style that was quickly going the way of the dodo bird is beyond me.

“If the Habs had just an average powerplay, the season would have gone differently”.

No, it wouldn’t have. This statement may have been true between 2005-2008, but the sad truth is teams nowadays do not receive enough powerplay chances to score enough goals to make a huge difference.

I don’t expect everyone to believe me, as changing beliefs is often painful, and it’s more comfy in the cocoon of familiarity.

Questions or comments are welcome. Thanks for reading!

It’s Your Fault

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If there’s one topic and player that has been flogged harder than Scott Gomez in the past 2 seasons, it has to be Andrei Kostitsyn.

Since being drafted 10th overall at the 2003 draft, he has consistently done one thing: fail to live up to expectations.

Guess what? It’s your fault.

He’s been assigned labels like “heartless”, “lazy”, “inconsistent”, “soft” and “replaceable”. Seriously, guys?

I guess you’ve been duped in to thinking that 20 goal / 100 hit guys grow on trees, or that Kostitsyn is somehow overpaid for what he brings. “Heartless” and “lazy” are off-base monikers that are totally subjective, and I suspect more often than not are derogatory adjectives given to Eastern European players by “lazy” fans and media who can’t be bothered to actually “do the research” before passing judgement on him.

Inconsistent
Let’s tackle this one: Since 2007-08, Kostitsyn’s points-per-game average has been: .68ppg (07-08), .55ppg (08-09), .56ppg (09-10), .55ppg (10-11), .51ppg (11-12). While this year represents a low, we should also note that he is no longer getting prime ice time, and rarely gets power play time (1:48 of powerplay time per game, 8th on the team). If Kostitsyn plays 70 games, he scores 20 goals and will throw 100 hits on a team that has been forever labeled small and weak. Talk about shouldering the burden.

Soft
Another misnomer for AK46. Over the course of the past 5 seasons, Kostitsyn has ranked no lower than 5th among forwards in terms of hits thrown, and anyone watching knows that Andrei Kostitsyn can throw his weight around as well as anyone. In fact, Kostitsyn led the team in hits last season with 140, and was 3rd in 09-10 despite missing 20+ games. This season, AK46 is second in hits behind Erik Cole with 75 hits in 47 games. Kostitsyn has played 10 fewer games than Cole, who will not keep up this year’s pace as he ages.

Replaceable
Habs fans have been clamoring for Kostitsyn’s ouster from Montreal for years now, mostly because he hasn’t pleased those who think he’s a 35 goal man with a 20 goal man’s drive. With the NHL average salary about to creep closer to 3 million dollars, I’d hate to think that there are people out there dumb enough to think that his 3.25 million dollar salary is some kind of overpayment for his services. I defy you to find another player on the open market that is a lock for 20 goals, 40pts and 100 hits for what will be slightly more than the league average next season. If the Habs look to replace his production and presence on the free agent market, they’ll have to badly overpay in terms of annual salary and term. The Habs would be smart to re-sign Kostitsyn while he’s still willing…if he’s still willing. And don’t talk to me about in-house replacements. The Canadiens have nobody – N-O-B-O-D-Y in the organization that is close to being able to produce the way Kostitsyn does. Not Louis Leblanc, not Mike Blunden, not Aaron Palushaj, not Brendan Gallagher.

While Kostitsyn was drafted behind all-stars like Perry, Getzlaf, Richards, Kesler, Parise and Carter, fans simply need to stop being so unbelievably and absolutely thick-skulled about Kostitsyn. Adjust your expectations already! Andrei Kostitsyn brings stability, skill and a sorely needed physical presence to the Canadiens lineup. If he was given steady linemates and given a role that suits his best skill (that of a sniper), maybe he’d be closer to the guy everyone thinks he ought to be. But until then, the Canadiens have a reliable, home-grown player that comes at excellent value. Apparently that isn’t enough, though. That damn 10th overall tag just won stop dogging him. Stubborn fans and media won’t let it go away. Apparently fans want to see assets mismanaged to the point where the next guy that is brought in to replace him is paid 30% more, while he inevitably eventually becomes somebody fans want traded for a bag of used mouth guards.

Andrei Kostitsyn as a failure? Hardly. It’s your fault for letting your imagination continually run wild. Is he a perfect player, and a perfect little boy scout? No, he isn’t, and he has hit slumps, sometimes for long stretches. Which player hasn’t? Stop comparing him to others in his draft class. We can play this game all day, and you’re sounding like a broken record. To boot, we can sing the Habs praises for drafting Pacioretty and Subban before other teams snatched them up, unless you would have preferred Riley Nash, Angelo Esposito, Logan MacMillan, Jakub Voracek, or Zach Hamill. If you’re going to remain in the camp that insists Kostitsyn is a drag on the team, at least be armed with a good reason other than “I watch the games and he’s poopy and he was drafted before Corey Perry and I hate him and he’s a bum”.

Shepherding the Lemmings

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So the Catholic Church has concocted an ad, asked us all to pray that the Habs can go on a miraculous run and escape the depths of despair to snatch the 8th playoff rung. How cute silly.

Usually you don’t go looking for miracles until you really need one.

  • Turning water in to wine
  • Granting sight to the blind
  • Healing the lepers
  • Exorcising the demons
  • Making 8th place

Hmmmm…one of these is not like the others, but it does a wonderful job in cementing the “Habs are a religion” story.

Do we really need to waste a miracle in hoping that the Canadiens can sink their hooks in to a playoff spot that historically bears no fruit? If you’re like me, and the Stanley Cup is the only goal that truly matters, then you no doubt know by now that finishing anywhere from 5th to 8th place is nothing but fodder for the top ranked teams. Why? I’ll say it again: because the last fifteen consecutive Cup winners started the playoffs with home ice advantage. It doesn’t get any clearer than that. History matters, and after 15 years, it is no longer a trend, but has become reality. Sure, we just saw the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series after making a miracle run to the playoffs. We just saw the New York Giants win the Superbowl as nothing more than a .500 team that got hot at the right time. Neither of those sports are NHL hockey, and this is precisely the reason why we always hear the saying that “the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win.” The NHL playoffs are a grind that are designed to weed out the weaker teams. Yes, 16 teams make the playoffs every year with “a blank slate and equal chance to win it all” but since the lockout ended, 8 of the 12 teams to compete in the Stanley Cup Finals had the minimal requirement of winning their division locked up. To boot, the Canadiens are not constructed to endure a run to the Cup finals. Thin on defense, small down the middle, not nearly rugged enough.

I don’t know about you, but I’ve seen quite enough of the Habs wearing Cinderella’s gown once the post-season ball begins. In any other year when they are traditionally a bubble team, I’d be hoping for the team to make the playoffs because once you’re in the mix, you may as well go all in and reap the experience of being in the playoffs, because aside from ownership rolling in pure playoff profit, there is no tangible benefit aside from experience. But this year, the Habs are not in the mix, and they aren’t close to the mix. Their current 3-game winning streak has only brought them 1 point closer to 8th – that’s how hard it is to claw back once you fall far behind, as the Habs did in October. You can claw back, as they did, but what happens when they have another mini-slump? Wallowing as low as they have this year, this is the team’s best chance at a brighter future by selling off their assets for draft picks, cutting dead weight loose, and trimming fat from the roster. Under no circumstances should the General Manager hoard his pending UFAs for a shot at 8th place, just to lose them for nothing a couple months later. Similarly, under no circumstances should he be permitted to be a buyer at the deadline. The Canadiens haven’t drafted in the first AND second round since 2007; a draft that netted Pacioretty and Subban in rounds one and two. Where is this Habs team without either of those players? The Canadiens would be without a young power forward that already has 21 even strength goals, and without a defenseman capable of playing 25 minutes per night. A one-year hiatus from the status-quo can do this franchise’s future a world of good. But we live in the instant-gratification age, and apparently it’s too much to ask to forgo one year of merry-go-round uselessness. It’s all now, now, NOW!

If you buy in to the Church’s silly ad (ease up, Kyle it’s all in good fun!), if you buy in to the “make the playoffs and anything can happen” garbage, and if you think that all the Habs needed all along was a little luck to be Cup contender, then this is where we part ways. You’re simply not paying attention to reality. Wait. Let me backtrack for a second. Anything CAN happen, as long as your goal is anything BUT the Cup. Winning one round CAN happen, and happens often enough. Winning two round is also possible. Heck, winning 3 rounds happens on average once every 5 years, but winning that key fourth round never does. If you want the Cup, wishing upon a star will just leave you disappointed at the end of the season. If you settle for less than the Cup…well…I’ll withold my opinions. This is a family website, after all.

If you want to see this organization realize true success, or at least give it their all in trying, then try this: Demand that Geoff Molson has a long chat with smart hockey people from outside his organization on how to build a winner in the cap era, because the hockey people running things today are there by either convenience, nepotism or cronyism. And when you breed mediocrity with mediocrity, you simply get better mediocrity.

The Canadiens have an open window to flush out the pipes and retool on a strong foundation of young players that desperately need the input and influence of somebody that gets it. They’d be wise to embrace this open window, because the usual way of doing things has led to nearly 20 years of futility and a generation of Habs fans who are now more than halfway to being Leafs fans (yes kiddies, we were already teasing the Leafs about 1967 back in 1997 – The Habs are a mere 11 years away from those depths).

Look, I hate seeing the Canadiens in this position, and I don’t enjoy them losing by any stretch. But I hate this never-ending cycle of mediocrity even more. If somehow, after trading away assets and allowing nature to take it’s course, the Canadiens manage to “Rise Together” to snatch 8th place, then fine. It will cost them the chance to draft the big, skilled franchise centerman that the team has desperately needed for more than 15 years, but so be it. It’s a compromise to appease the lemmings who would follow the team over a rocky cliff.

After reading this, I ask you yet again, what is the point of finishing 8th when it is so crystal clear that teams who finish 8th get nothing? Do not believe the “anything can happen” tripe. If “anything can happen” was at all true, then it would have happened more than once in the last 15 years. Again, it may work in other sports, but not in the NHL. What is your goal? The Stanley Cup, or something less?


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