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If You Only Read One Habs Blog Post

…make it this one.

Friend and fellow blogger @Habswatch once again hits pay dirt with an insightful and data-driven (read: not skewed by lazy opinion) piece.

No player has polarized Habs fans in recent memory like Carey Price has; you either love him to itty-bitty pieces, or you want his head on a pike. His ardent supporters say that he’s young, has elite talent and a growing body of work that will only continue to impress. They say his defense is the main reason for his failings. His critics say that he’s paid among the elite, has accomplished nothing at the NHL level and has fallen woefully short of lofty expectations.

In his piece, HabsWatch doesn’t only put Price’s 2013 season in to perspective, he puts his entire career in to focus in relation and context to his peers. The results may shock you, as they did for me.

If you want the real deal on Price, then I urge you to take 10 minutes to read HabsWatch’s piece. Drink in the evidence and then share it with your friends. I promise that it is well worth your time.

The bar has been set

So what really happened in the 2013 post-season for the Habs?

From Pacioretty, Plekanec and Price to Desharnais, Markov, Gorges and Ryder, the veterans on this team did not accomplish enough good things collectively in order to have a deep playoff run. Simple as that. No player bashing, no nailing to the cross. A lot of guys were hurt, or playing hurt and as much as they refuse to use that as an excuse, the fact is no team can sustain the losses and injuries that the Habs did to key players and hum along like nothing happened…except for the Senators. The Habs veterans were average-to-below average and that doesn’t get it done in playoff time.

Here’s what you really need to know:

  • Senators goaltending outplayed Habs goaltending, to the tune of a .950 save percentage for Ottawa versus .870 for Montreal.
  • Ottawa scored an average of four goals per game, while the Habs chimed in with less than half of that total, at 1.8.
  • The Senators scored 13 third period goals to the Canadiens’ grand total of zero.
  • The Canadiens centermen scored a grand total of zero goals.
  • The officials stymied the Habs at least once in a very costly way.

Game, series, and season…over.

What may come as a relief is that the Canadiens missing ingredients are painfully obvious and I think we can expect Marc Bergevin to remove some of the redundancies on the Habs current roster and fill the voids with what he, and the rest of us believe to be the missing pieces.

With the team set up with talented youth and a General Manager who seems to have a firm grasp on the realities of the league in 2013, there’s very little doubt that Marc Bergevin has a cogent plan to continue to remake his team. Even the most passive fan has been able to identify areas where the Habs need lots of help:

Size with toughness and scoring ability on the wings: The top nine forwards include the following names from the under-six foot clan: Plekanec, Desharnais, Gallagher, and Gionta. It’s hard to imagine the Habs charging in to 2013-14 with that many smaller bodies despite “how big they play”. 5’8” does not have the reach or power and dominance of 6’3”. To ignore this is to think yourself above the laws of physics, or that they don’t apply to the Habs. Dredge up any stat you like, but when everyone has long since come to the realization that small bodies wear out faster and more often than big bodies, the road map becomes clear. Even if the impact of physical dimensions of any given player is a point of debate, what the Canadiens do need both up front and on the back end is aggression and that typically that comes in larger packages. I’m not here to say that the Habs are criminally small and weak and fragile. While the Habs loss to the Senators is not specifically due solely to size, if you take a moment to scan the defense corps of the Habs division foes for next year, it isn’t a stretch to think that adding some beef and snarl up front is unreasonable. Of course, one-dimensional thugs need not apply, and Bergevin strongly hinted at this in his post-mortem press conference. Although we can be fairly sure that Michel Therrien would love to have one of those guys in his back pocket, it appears unlikely that Bergevin will waste a roster spot on a goon.

Universally respected as he rightfully is by his teammates, coaches, opponents, the media and fans, With Gionta’s contract going in to its final year, it’s not impossible that Bergevin could move the captain at some point once he has proven to be healthy and productive again. It would be an unpopular move to trade him but forward-thinking GMs do unpopular and bold things on the road to success. Fact is, they could use a right-handed, large body to compliment Pacioretty and Rene Bourque on the wings. Gionta may be an interesting acquisition to somebody out there who needs leadership, and scoring ability.

Clarity at Center: There’s a jigsaw puzzle down the middle. Tomas Plekanec is the Habs most complete forward, and until he can be adequately replaced on the fly, and not under an assumption or hope that Eller or Galchenyuk can replace him, there’s little sense in talking about trading him. That said, Plekanec is currently the Habs best centerman and would fetch the most return on the trade market. At 31 years old, he’s not getting any younger, and Bergevin appears to be in to moving “aging assets” before they’re worthless, but trading Plekanec now is premature, lest the Habs GM invoke the “unpopular, but bold” clause. Lars Eller was on the verge of breaking out in this shortened season. 2013-14 will be labeled as, and expected to be his full coming out party, but he is not yet ready to take on all of the duties currently held by Plekanec. We know Desharnais is both one dimensional, yet secure with his new deal, so the Habs will have to work around his, umm, shortcomings. Alex Galchenyuk remains the wild card. Drafted as the team’s future frachise #1 centerman, the 19-year-old spent nearly all of his rookie season on the wing, and with good reason. Though he led the team in +/-, that is the single most misleading stat in hockey. Rely on that number at your own peril. However, he cannot be counted on defensively just yet, especially when it comes to defensive zone faceoffs. Between his and Eller’s inability to take draws reliably, the Habs have much work to do, and until they get one, or both of them both up to speed, it makes Plekanec’s presence on the team a must.

Another top-four defenseman: This is a tricky one, but needs to be addressed. Andrei Markov’s play collapsed at even-strength in 2013; anyone with a pair of eyeballs could see this. He is no longer the team’s best defenseman, but is heavily relied upon nonetheless. He was very often caught behind the play after a bad pinch, and with ravaged knees, he no longer has the speed to recover, and once he gets back in to position, he is not physical enough to knock opposing forwards off the puck. Bergevin can get on his hands and knees and pray that Markov spends the summer strengthening his knee, and that Jarred Tinordi’s imminent arrival as a regular will be enough to save him from shopping for a pricey free agent, or trading assets to shore up the defense, but that’s a risky gamble. The blueline for next season is already crowded what with Subban, Gorges, Emelin (who may not be ready until November or later), Markov, Bouillon, and Diaz all but assured spots in the top seven (Weber and Drewiske won’t be back), which means that only one place remains for a kid like Tinordi. No upgrades have been made yet aside from the natural progression that young players demonstrate, and that’s no guarantee, either. For Habs fans who treat free agent frenzy like a free-for-all, this is sobering, disappointing news. If Bergevin decides to look outside the organization to make his defense better on the top two pairings, he’ll have a tough choice to make in terms of moving Markov or Gorges. Moving Bouillon is the easy call, but doesn’t create the hole needed to upgrade the top-four.

Iron in the bottom-six forwards: As a simple one-year band aid solution, Colby Armstrong won’t be back. Travis Moen disappointed many in 2013 on the heels of signing a four-year extension and may be moved as a result. But both players brought something to the table in terms of penalty killing and character. Bergevin will need to replace those traits, to the chagrin of the fancystat propeller heads.. Michel Therrien’s (and most fans, too) face turned unhealthy shades of greenish-purple when the Leafs and Sens (among others) took turns slapping the Habs silly in lopsided losses. In that respect it is the expectation of most fans that Bergevin fetch a player or two who can throw his fists. Therrien may be a changed man in front of the cameras and microphones, but I’d bet my last dime that he, too wishes he had at least one player with the ability to bust heads on a nightly basis. The rub is that players who can carry a regular shift (i.e. actually play hockey), yet acquit themselves well when the rough stuff starts don’t grow on trees, and Bergevin will need to decide how much this is truly a priority before investing time and energy in bringing in this sort of player.

The debate will rage all summer as to whether or not the real Canadiens were the team that streaked to a 26-9 record or the team that gave up 3.9 goals per game after clinching a playoff spot. That said, and whether it’s fair or not, expectations for the 2013-14 season are going to be sky-high for the Canadiens. Bergeron and friends will have no other mandate – both internally and externally from fans to build upon what was statistically speaking the best season from the bleu-blanc-rouge in 20 years. I hope you enjoyed drafting Galchenyuk at third overall last season because it will be the last time that they select that high based on merit for quite some time – at least that’s going to be the plan. Bergevin may not be able to make ALL of this changes required THIS summer, and no doubt this will piss off Habs fans who want it all right away. This year was like a honeymoon that ended with a nightmarish trip home. Fans will no longer be so willing to accept future first round exits if they are preceded by strong regular seasons, that much is plain and simple.

Sabotage

Playoff game #4

Through 40 minutes, the Habs had done everything right, resulting in a 2-0 lead. Then they took a page out of the Jacques Martin playbook and sat back to defend that lead through the third period. Predictably, it did not work out for them. Without going through the painful exercise yet again, here’s why I think the Habs lost:

We can complain about the officiating all we want. By the letter of the law, the Sens’ first goal was legit. The tying goal was rife with officiating blunders from the icing call, to not calling Turris’ interference with Price.

In the end none of this matters.

The Canadiens were their own worst enemy last night when they had been their own best ally for two full periods. Now with Eller, Gionta, Prust, Pacioretty, and Price (that we know of) either playing hurt or outright injured, the Habs face a huge uphill climb.

After being the better team in three of four games in this series so far, the Canadiens certainly deserve better, but the hockey gods don’t work that way. Those of us who remember 2010 know this all too well.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Not Good

Playoff game #1

The game started well enough; the Habs skated hard, forechecked, took their shots at Craig Anderson…and then the Sens scored. Not an awful goal for Price to surrender with Erik Karlsson right on the doorstep, but it was certainly deflating.

But the Habs fought back, kept skating, kept shooting. That Anderson guy kept making saves. All of them. Suddenly, with a backhand shot that would make Vincent Damphousse proud, Rene Bourque tied the score. All seemed fine, and we had ourselves one heck of an entertaining game.

And then came Gryba.

Tattooing a defenseless Lars Eller in the head with his shoulder, leaving the Habs center bloodied and probably concussed, the air and electricity left the building. Sure the Habs scored on the resulting powerplay to take the lead, and continued to rain down shots on Anderson, but he was equal to the task. The Canadiens set a new team record in peppering Anderson with 27 second period shots; 50 for the game, but could only score twice. Amazing what a determined goaltender can do.

Enter Carey Price.

With his team dominating, all he had to do was not surrender any weak goals and game one would be theirs. Instead, he decided not to play the third period. All three goals were awful. The first went right though his legs. He got his glove on the second but it got by him anyway. The third was the result of a rebound that should have been steered in to the corner, but instead was punted directly in to the slot where a crashing Latendresse forced both himself and Subban to push the puck behind Price.

Poor focus. Poor rebound control. Poor resolve.

While certain Canadiens players were absent (hello Gionta, Ryder and Desharnais), the Canadiens were let down by their goaltender, who is paid and relied upon to deliver big saves in big moments. When the team was pouring its guts out (and in Lars Eller’s case – his blood), they needed Price to stand tall, and he simply did not. He failed, full stop. Price will have his share of apologists, who will try to once again pin the blame on everyone else aside from Price. Question their credibility, for they are not being honest with you, or with themselves.

Perhaps it’s for the best that they get right back to work tomorrow night. It leaves them with no time to dwell on this deflating performance from their most important player, but gives them just enough time to take a deep breath after an emotional game that saw one of their best players injured.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

The Comforts of Home

Regular season game #47

Tonight’s game against the Jets had two distinct flavors to it. The first 40 minutes saw the Jets’ larger forwards have their way in the Habs’ end, giving the defense fits. Another collapse looked imminent. As has become recent tradition, the Canadiens D seemed too willing to give up odd-man rushes and full-on breakaways. Indeed, it is a concern when callup Jarred Tinordi was the most effective player in the defensive zone.

With a 2-1 lead heading to the third, and with their playoff hopes on life support, the Jets got the news that they had to know was coming. Both the Rangers and Senators won, dashing their playoff hopes for good. Whether the Jets sagged, or the Habs showed some urgency, aided by some powerplays that allowed the Habs to at least temporarily fire up the scoring machine that had worked so well through 40 games, the game tilted heavily in the Habs favor.

With fourth place in the Eastern Conference now the lowest the Habs can finish, if I were Michel Therrien, I would take a pre-emptive wiz on the CBC’s Habs/Leafs parade and make Saturday’s regular season finale as unimportant as I possibly could. I would take the hype right out of the game. The Habs don’t need it. Regardless of the outcome, the Leafs will win the season series and take that advantage to the bank, and it only brings the possibility that some Habs regulars could get further banged up, or hurt altogether. After all, when a team boasts such hockey luminaries as Colton Orr, Frazer McLaren, and Mark Fraser, why allow these glorified goons one last opportunity to take cheap shots at the Habs more important players? They’ll likely play very sparingly, or not at all in the playoffs, so any “discipline” that may be doled out by Shanaban would be totally ineffective. In short, Price, Plekanec, Markov, Ryder, Gorges, Prust, Gionta and Bouillon all get to watch the game from the press box while Bulldogs fill the void.

Tonight’s game saw the Habs show more push-back and spark than they have in a couple of weeks. Good news indeed, but the best news – by far – is that Carey Price looked like Carey Price. He made several big stops when the Jets were up 1-0, and could have given the Habs the confidence they needed to forge ahead without the fear of a softy going in behind them. If Price has indeed reasserted himself and found his game once again, it can be nothing but bad news for whoever the Habs face in the first round. But before we get ahead of ourselves, the defensive coverage that the Habs have been displaying lately was not much better tonight. The Coaching staff still has more work to do, starting with giving some tired legs time to recuperate.

There’s one more game to go, but with any luck it will be but a mere formality.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

You Can Cry if you Want To

Regular season game #46

If you’re a results-oriented fan, then this game was just another in the recent string of games in which the Canadiens walked away empty-handed. If you’re a glass half-full kind of person, then you’ll say that the Habs took a positive step forward by not being blown out for a change by showing some fight in not imploding when they fell behind 3-0. The only real tangible bit of good news tonight is that the Bruins lost, meaning the Canadiens still have an outside shot at actually winning the division.

But back to the Habs, and that pesky issue of falling behind 3-0 early in the game. Most blamed the refs, but the refs don’t kill penalties. Nor do the Habs for that matter. They need to stop this habit of playing themselves out of games so early. It’s killing them.

The fact is that the Devils were 1-7-6 against the Northeast division this season, and were playing their first game since being eliminated from playoff contention. That didn’t stop them from bottling up the Canadiens and holding them to just 21 shots in a game that the Habs really needed to win. The Canadiens now face a tough road if they want to clinch home ice advantage in the first round; they will need to reel off three out of a possible four points against a desperate Jets team, and the Maple Leafs, who have slapped the Canadiens silly for the most part.

For whatever reason the Canadiens are a heavy-legged bunch, save for  some young players, and on that note, it’s time for Coach Michel Therrien to consistently give Lars Eller more ice time over the sputtering David Desharnais, who has done next to nothing since signing his big contract. Tonight, both Alex Galchenyuk and Lars Eller had more ice time than Desharnais, and we can only hope that it’s a trend that continues long in to the future. Staying on the ice time beat, somebody needs to explain to me why Andrei Markov was the Habs top minute man tonight, topping even P.K. Subban? Anyone? No? Ok, moving on.

To this point, I’ve been only mildly concerned about their recent slide. While the optics of the last six games are horrid, it is this game that truly has me concerned. After two days of practice, the Habs said all the right things and presented a united front that they were going to be a refocused and tighter group. If tonight’s effort was what they were talking about, then they can feel free to go back to the drawing board any time now.

During this slide, I’ve encouraged fans to remain patient and let the Coaching staff pull the team out of their first real slide of the year, and I’ll continue to do so. With that being said, I’ll no longer hold it against the fan who wants to hit the panic button, for they have been given no reason not to.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

 

Fan Appreciation Fright

Regular season game #45

If you’ve been watching for the last week then you have seen this movie before, and it ain’t pretty.

Halfway through the third period, the fans who were “being honoured” by the team were halfway home, soured by yet another horrific performance. As it turns out, not so unpredictably, the win against the Lightning was indeed a mirage. The defensive malaise that has wrapped it’s fist around the team has yet to relinquish itself and Habs fans must be asking themselves what can be done to loosen the grip. Falling behind as quickly and deeply as they have done in this week from hell has left a scar on what has been an otherwise outstanding season.

Who is the scapegoat tonight? Carey Price? The defense? You know things are bad when even P.K. Subban looks mortal. The forwards that didn’t score a single goal until late in the third period? The Coach?

It doesn’t really matter.

Sure Price could have stopped a couple of the goals but the defense needed to be roughly 20 times better than it was and scoring a goal or two themselves would have been a good idea at some point before Pacioretty netted one in mop-up time. Whether it’s over confidence from clinching a playoff spot that has since mutated into a crisis of confidence the Canadiens are running out of time to fix their issues. If they aren’t broken then are they coasting? If they are coasting, can they flip the switch once the playoffs start? That’s a dangerous game.

The big question in the immediate future is whether or not the Habs need to practice or need to rest. Have they lost their way, or are they beat? Therrien has probably already made his decision on that.

It’s time to forget the notion of coveting second place over fourth place. The Bruins have two games in hand and are tied with the Habs. Even with a punishing five games in seven nights to close the season, the Bruins have the inside track on the Northeast division crown. The priority should now be taking baby steps to get back on track before April 30th. Every facet of the game has gone belly-up in the last week and the answers lie in the room, or it’s an early tee-time. It still isn’t time for panic. Strange, but true. That said, if the Habs do not look noticeably better on Tuesday after two days of practice or two days of rest, or a little bit of both before facing the punchless, non-playoff bound Devils then feel free to take to the streets.

Hey, at least Ribeiro didn’t score. Oh, he had three assists. Never mind then.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

New Equipment, Same Pain

Regular season game #41

This game was over before it began, and there’s no need to search high and low for the reason. Carey Price was not prepared to start this game. Let’s shelve any talk about unfamiliarity with new equipment; Price chose to wear new equipment in a big game. It is incumbent upon him to make sure that the new gear does not compromise his performance. Whatever the reason, surrendering three goals on four shots is inexcusable considering that two of the three goals were as soft as soft gets.

Just two night after clinching a playoff spot, it would be a little unreasonable to blow a gasket and suggest that Therrien panic by putting the team through a bag skate at his first opportunity. What he does have to do is take a breather on Sunday and spend the day questioning why his team can’t consistently put forth a good effort against the Leafs. If we want to cling to the idea that once the playoffs begin that the slate is wiped clean, that would be convenient. But the fact is now the Canadiens have given the Leafs as much confidence as they’ll need in a potential first round matchup. Should the Habs and Leafs meet in the first round, Montreal has one more chance on April 27th to grab back a measure of confidence.

There’s not a lot of sense in picking apart individual performances tonight, aside from the one that cost the team the game before the first period was halfway over. Once the Habs were behind by three goals, they went for broke in trying to claw their way back, to no avail. More mistakes were made as a result, and the gap only widened after briefly being shrunk to two goals. Lots of guys played terrible games, but under the circumstances none of it mattered much given the situation that Price left them in. With only seven games left before the playoffs begin, Price is running out of time to get his act together. As good as he’s been this season, he has not been great, and no amount of smoke from his exonerators can change that. Fact: three of his last seven starts have been hard to watch.

Everyone and their dead dog knows that a Leafs – Habs first round matchup is a distinct possibility, and although the Habs are a demonstrably better team in nearly every statistical category than the Leafs, it has to be a little bit of a concern that the Habs have laid three eggs of different size and shape in four games against this Toronto team.

We could sweep all of this under the rug and look at what happened the last time the Habs were embarrassed by the Leafs. The Canadiens went on to get points in 11 straight games, and put a stamp on this season. If that were to happen again, we’d all welcome that.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

First Place For Another Day

Regular season game #38

In the season’s final game of the long-running rivalry between the Bruins and Habs, it was the home team that finally broke through to claim victory, in the tightest of margins and the most stressful of manners.

Clinging to a one-goal lead with less than two minutes to play, Lars Eller grabbed a fistful of Zdeno Chara’s jersey and spun him to the ice. Whether the big ape helped himself to the ground is irrelevant; Eller, who had played a strong game to that point, showed a lack of judgement. Luckily it didn’t cost the Habs because the dismal Bruins powerplay was still dismal, even with the addition of Jaromir Jagr. They threw the puck around the ice and desperately hoped the big old Czech would fix everything for them. The final siren blared with the puck on Jagr’s stick and with no urgency from him at all.

The best Habs players list is starting to sound like a broken record. PK Subban had another two assists and had a Fenwick score of +16. For the #fancystats uninitiated, take my word for it: that’s really good (hat tip to @Heymynameiswill). His case for the Norris trophy continues to grow by leaps and bounds as he piles up the stats, minutes and defensive prowess needed to earn votes from the powers that be. Whether he wins the Norris or not isn’t all that important in the grand scheme of things. What is important is that the Habs have one of the league’s premier defensemen…if that hasn’t been obvious for a couple years already.

Carey Price was also stellar, turning aside from 26 of 27 shots and kept the Bruins third period push at bay. His rebound control was outstanding and the poise for which he’s become known for was on full display. It’s odd that it was his first win against the Bruins since October of 2011, but facts are facts, and with the playoffs around the corner, it’s a good confidence booster for Price to have should they face Boston in the postseason.

After suffering a reported groin injury on Wednesday in Philadelphia, Tomas Plekanec was back in the lineup and looked like his former self. He won 70% of his faceoffs which is key considering his Bruins counterpart, Patrice Bergeron sat the game out with yet another concussion.

It was a busy week for the Habs that saw them play five games in the last eight nights. Posting a 4-1 record during that stretch is absurd, and is only made more absurd by the fact that they surrendered just three goals in the four wins. This team navigates fatigue, travel and injury perfectly, and for that Michel Therrien, who has not had a full practice with his team in 8 days now, deserves an enormous share of the credit.

Next week is decidedly slower, with a home game against the resurgent Capitals on Monday, followed by two road games in Buffalo and Toronto.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel

Flying Low

Regular season game #36

Let’s all take a collective deep breath….and exhale.

With the Habs turning in one of their worst performances of the year just hours after the trade deadline elapsed, it would be easy to slide in to a panic attack and question Bergevin’s decision not to make any moves to shore up the team.

Settle down.

Every team lays an egg once in a while. No, that’s not to say that it’s acceptable, because getting six shots in the final 40 minutes certainly isn’t acceptable. The fact is the final score flatters the Habs, since they did somehow manage to score twice in the second period. If not for the sloppy netminding of Ilya Bryzgalov, this game would have been a laugher.

The real concern following tonight’s game is the status of Tomas Plekanec, who left the game with just over 12 minutes left in the second period with a lower body injury. I’m only going to loosely make the connection, but without Plekanec, the Habs managed less shots during his absence than Flyers forward Wayne Simmonds had for the entire game on his own. If Plekanec is out for any length of time, the Habs are in serious trouble, since Eller, Desharnais, Halpern and Galchenyuk cannot replicate what Plekanec brings to the team. You can disagree, but you’d be wrong.

The Habs are a resilient bunch, and losing has not been their thing this season. All bets are off if Plekanec is seriously hurt, but considering how more than one goal deflected off of Habs defensemen and behind Price in to the net, I expect a livelier effort from the Habs tomorrow against Winnipeg coupled with a little more puck luck.

So with nothing more to talk about, the only thing to consider is what the plan becomes if Plekanec IS seriously hurt. Well, for starters, Lars Eller will take on a bigger role, and will hopefully be better than he was tonight. Jeff Halpern will also take on more minutes, especially when it comes to defensive zone faceoffs. Other than that, Desharnais will have no choice but to put points on the board on a consistent basis, and Galchenyuk will have to contribute a bit more than he has.

Again, let’s not let one loss set us on the path of despair. Until poor play becomes a pattern, assume that the Habs will bounce back, as they always have this season. If they lose the Jets tomorrow, raise an eyebrow. If they lose to the Bruins on Saturday…ok…go ahead and riot.

Follow me on twitter: @kyleroussel


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