Since trading a disgruntled Michael Cammalleri to Calgary, the team is a mediocre 3-2-2. Not nearly good enough to put them back in the playoff hunt, but optimism has been renewed since those 3 wins have come against the Conference-leading Rangers, the hated Leafs (in Toronto), and the mighty Red Wings. When the most recent victory sees the downtrodden Habs hanging a converted touchdown around the league’s best team’s neck, it’s easy – and sometimes fun – to get carried away that the turnaround is in fact upon us and that the Forum Ghosts are ready to lend a hand.

As the Canadiens blew off the preseason, most shrugged with indifference. In most years, I would have agreed – after all, didn’t Carey Price tell us to “chill”?. This year, however, I didn’t see a team building toward an identity, or establishing chemistry – I saw a team running out players that had no business being a part of a training camp for so long. It felt like the Habs were focused on squeezing as many dollars as they could from whatever time was allotted for preseason games. Once the regular season began, nothing changed. How could it given the lackadaisical approach given to the preseason schedule?  The team that sputtered through the exhibition season fell flat in October, so much so that they became ensnared in the dreaded numbers game bear trap.

The “coveted” 8th place slot drifted further and further out of reach as the season reached the quarter pole, all the way to the point where the Habs were a distant and dismal 11 points out of 8th at mid-season. In other words – they’d need a miracle to claw back and grab that 8th playoff position.

The more pragmatic Habs fans were reading the writing on the wall as they were taking the Halloween decorations down and dusting off the Christmas season regalia. Yes, the regular season is 82 games, and 6 1/2 long months, but the reality is that you can scuttle your playoff hopes in the first month of action.

Thus was born the #failfornail campaign, a euphemism for tanking the season and grabbing the top draft pick at the 2012 entry draft. This slogan sticks in the craw of many fans, who want the Habs in the post-season dance, no matter what. After all, you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs, n’est pas? Never mind that no 5th-8th seed teams have won the Cup since 1995 when Braveheart was the reigning Best Picture winner and Gangta’s Paradise was dominating the radio waves. The Devils won the Cup that year, and it was during a shortened 48-game season, meaning that without having to endure the full 82-game grind, conditions were ripe for a team to win the Cup without starting on home ice. Even at that, the Devils were on the cusp of becoming a dominant league power, not a bubble team. The ’93 Habs were the last team to win the Cup without home ice to start the playoffs in a full season, but again, it should be noted that the Canadiens were a 102-point team that year and were in a stacked division, and were not a bubble team.

In short, bubble teams don’t win anything. In a town with a history like Montreal’s, an 8th place finish is nothing short of a platitude.

As a believer in history and trends, I’m tired of the Habs going in to the playoffs with the “plucky underdog” label. The dire reality is that if you want to win the Cup in the modern era, you need home ice advantage, at least to start the playoffs. The 2006 Oilers are a nice story, but that’s all they are – a nice story. If they had a healthy Dwayne Roloson for game 7, things may have been different, but he was hurt, and they lost. There are no moral victories to be found in game 7 of the Cup Finals, and the Oilers have been rebuilding ever since.

This season has 3 possible outcomes for the Habs:

1- They buck history to “rise together” to grab the 8th playoff spot, despite overwhelming odds. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.

2- They make a brave charge for 8th, but fall short. Pragmatists will weep at the loss of a potential lottery pick, while optimists and die-hard homers will trumpet this as an accomplishment worthy of recognition in the annals of Habs lore.

3- They trade their available assets before the deadline, restock the draft pick and prospect cupboard by moving guys like Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Chris Campoli, Tomas Kaberle, in an attempt to do the one thing they haven’t done since the fluke of the 2005 draft (and previously the 1984 draft): draft in the top 5 and secure a franchise centerman.

When you weigh the team’s needs vs the daunting mountain of history that lies in in their path, the “smart” thing to do for the team’s future success would be to cut bait, let nature take its course and rebound hard next year.

Options 1 and 2, in my mind (and I know I’m not alone) represent a waste of time that although would be exciting for a couple months, would ultimately be a step back for the team. As Division and Conference rivals continue to improve, this is the year to make a huge leap forward in narrowing that gap, if not closing it altogether. Smart teams in today’s cap era build upon a foundation of young, cheap talent that can only come from good drafting. They do not build with pricey free agents. In terms of personnel in the organization, the Canadiens have one of the best evaluators of amateur talent in Trevor Timmins. Give him one year where, in a deep draft, he can lay claim to several high-end prospects and Habs fans will reap the rewards for many years to come.

I’m not naive enough to believe that a team of professional athletes are going to roll over and die. They just aren’t wired that way. With the amount of skill on this Habs team, their current position in the standings defies logic, and in that vein it’s not inconceivable that they could at least turn things around just enough to make everything look respectable. Like the thrilling run to the Eastern Conference Finals a couple years ago, I still believe snatching 8th place and missing out on the opportunity to solidify the future is nothing but a smokescreen that while exciting for a time, really sets the team back. It sparks false hope and conjures up delusions of grandeur.

Now, if only the shareholders would agree to forgo playoff revenue *just once*, the path would be so much easier for Geoff Molson and Pierre Gauthier.

Do the the Habs stink? You bet they do. Tough to admit, especially when they are “only 3 points out of a playoff spot” but you are what your record says you are, so yes – right now, the Habs stink. How did they get to this damp and sullen place so quickly? In this blogger’s view, two solid years of poor strategic coaching, coupled with non-existent tactical coaching, questionable development of youth and inept managerial moves have crippled this team. Ownership has a good amount of stink on it as well for placing blind faith in a team that was hired to keep corrupted and brainwashed masses content.

The team was never retooled properly following the collapse and subsequent mass exodus of 2009. Jacques Martin was brought in to breathe new life in to the team, as well as to bring a level of professionalism behind the bench that had been missing for years. Surely he had a hand in selecting the players that they eventually traded for, and signed during that summer’s free agency period. Why on God’s green earth they opted for small, offensive-minded players, we will never know. Sure, they’re loveable, respectable, classy guys, which makes trying to be objective about them much more difficult, but their contributions – or lack thereof speak for themselves. The style of play that was promised by Jacques Martin was never delivered – not even close. Instead, he enforced the exact opposite style of play that would have maxed out the players’ talents.  What’s the French translation for ‘appeasement’? The ruse worked for a while…or did it? I think we can all agree that goaltending saved not just the team’s bacon, but the entire barn. Whether Carey Price since the start of last year, or Halak two seasons ago, the trip to the Conference Finals was enchanting, but it was a fairy tale. An anomaly. The road taken was unsustainable. When a game plan calls for a goaltender to stop 40-50 shots per night, and asks defensemen to block almost as many, with the desired end result being a 2-1 victory, it’s only a matter of time before the trap door that you voluntarily stood on top of opens wide. Sidney Crosby’s bewilderment at the conclusion of game 7 spoke for nearly everyone, much of Habsland included.

Last year the team had its ups and downs, eventually bowing out in the first round to the Bruins in seven games. Many saw that as some sort of accomplishment, considering the “injuries”. Yawn. News flash! there are no moral victories in the playoffs. None. There never were, and there never will be. Talk of “tomorrow’s another day” is for the regular season. The playoffs, on the other hand are merciless and not for the faint of heart. Any talk otherwise stems from apologists, exonerators and excuse makers. Pass me the barf bag. The cracks in the foundation were deep and visible, but covered up with Carey Price’s excellence. That Carey Price is even in a Habs sweater is a stroke of luck.

Fast forward to this season, and the slow slide to oblivion accelerated to avalanche speed, and not even Price’s continued fine play could stop it. Jacques Martin quickly lost the pulse of his team, which is not surprising given how he stamped out any semblance of energy and passion – what was left to measure when you don’t communicate with your players? He soon ran out of places to hide, kids to throw under the bus and people to blame other than himself by the time the axe fell. Last Saturday ended what was an infernally long tenure that really wasn’t that long at all; it just felt that way, which is a damning testament to the type of stodgy, stale, flaccid hockey that Jacques Martin had installed. It was, and still is boring, which speaks to the damage that he has done, and that Randy Cunneyworth has been tasked with fixing. Nothing is worse than failing, sleep-inducing hockey, especially when you’re one of the priciest tickets in the league. Nothing. Near the end, Jacques Martin said that it was less about entertaining the fans. Way to keep up with the times, Coach.

Now, as Randy Cunneyworth struggles to pump out the water, he seems as powerless as a nine volt battery trying to power a nuclear submarine. It isn’t his fault; he’s been set up for failure by ownership and management, and the jackals in the French media have already begun gnawing at the carcass before it has even flatlined. Dead man walking.

The result is a team in disarray, or at least the semblance of disarray. There are still some good players on this team: Cole, Pacioretty, Gionta, Plekanec, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are all eminently capable of 25 goals each, but only one or two of those guys will hit that number…three would be stretching it. As the team spirals to 12th place and poised to sink even lower, fans are predictably calling for a tank & rebuild in the same vein as Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, and other teams that reaped all-star talent at the draft table by being appallingly bad for many years.

As tempting as it may be to dream of a lottery draft pick, it’s not needed for this iteration of the team. Serious tweaking? Absolutely. Blowing it up? Stop it. While this season is on the verge of being lost, (if it wasn’t lost in October) there is plenty of hope for 2012-13, provided Geoff Molson gets his priorities straight and stares down those that insist that they have a say in running the team.

Re-signing Price, Subban and Gorges are no-brainer decisions. Bringing back Andrei Kostitsyn isn’t quite a no-brainer, but it’s damn close. Unless he can fetch a king’s ransom in return, he should be retained, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t trust Gauthier to fetch that kingly ransom. Thanks to Gauthier’s panic moves designed to save his, and Jacques Martin’s job (bonjour to those who said that a healthy Campoli and Kaberle would fix all that ails the team), he has saddled the team with some contracts that are suffocating the Habs, and will continue to do so until they’re off the books. That being the case, whoever has the title of General Manager in the summer – because it won’t be Pierre Gauthier – should focus on moving Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Kaberle at all costs. Freeing up that kind of scratch and replacing it with the right pieces and coupled with the proper Coaching, will set it back on course in a hurry.

There’s no need to flush out everyone over the age of 27. No need to be voluntary doormats for years to come. No need to waste some of Carey Price’s best years. As long as pillars like Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec, Cole, Eller, Gorges and Gionta are around, there is plenty to play for, and it’s all the more reason to get things right without waving the white flag of failure.The only capitulations that should be made, if the team can’t pull out of this tailspin absolutely and immediately (meaning tonight vs Winnipeg, and no more consolation loser points), is to trade pending UFAs (except Gorges and Kostitsyn) for assets. That’s it.

The recipe, as challenging as it may be to implement, is really quite simple:

1- Get the organizational priorities straight. Winning? Or pandering & political appeasement?
2- Hire the best General Manager money can buy, language be damned.
3- Let him get the best Coach, and ask him to pretty please with a cherry on top become competent in French as quickly as possible.
4- Sign or trade for players that match the new Coach’s style and fill the team’s gaps.
5- Enjoy hockey again.

Now, if only Geoff Molson can summon the courage to stomp out the filthy agenda-driven rats in the Francophone media and political arena who have infested and warped the views of Habs fans all over Quebec, things might get moving in the right direction. These clowns have once again made the Canadiens a laughing stock, not only in hockey circles, but in global news. It’s not because “outsiders don’t understand”. It’s because it’s farcical that a segment of Quebecers carry the sense of entitlement that allows them to believe that they control the team. The legacy of the Canadiens hangs from the rafters of the Bell Center, and it was built by French AND English. The legacy doesn’t exist anywhere else. It’s a sport. You want to make a statement about your culture and language? Do it through other channels and stay out of the hockey rink. People and organizations trying to shape the Canadiens to reflect their narrow-minded, pig-headed views have no place in the business of sport.

The ball is in your court, Mr. Molson.

It’s clear that the Canadiens are currently not living up to their own expectations. After all, they were the ones who came up with the “Rise Together” marketing campaign. What, exactly were they implying by that? Rise to where, exactly? To 8th place? 6th place? After a 2010-2011 year in which the Canadiens showed great promise, fueled by Price, Subban and Pacioretty, the team’s Marketing department may have made their first misstep in actually trying to RAISE the bar for once. They finished 6th last year, and, as the refrain goes, if they had Markov, Gorges and Pacioretty all year, they could have done better. So I assume they had higher targets this year.

Oops!

You might tell me that injuries have derailed the best laid plans, but I think that’s nothing but a lazy, old and tired excuse. Markov has been out for so long that he should no longer be factored in to the team’s plans or fortunes until he’s back in the lineup. Same goes for Campoli, a wildcard player left on the free agent scrap heap until late September. Surely, such saviours don’t rot on the scrap heap do they? The only thing we can say is that we don’t know how he would have fit in to this roster. Maybe he would have helped, maybe not. Scott Gomez, another big name and cap hit on the shelf wasn’t producing and was a drag on the team, so don’t tell me about him. You can spin the injury argument all you like, but the Penguins hummed along without Crosby, Malkin and Staal for long stretches so save the injury excuse for the apologist round table discussions. Mismanagement of resources, weak bench management, puzzling choices, lack of coach-to-player communication, motivation, outdated and ill-fitting systems, unprepared (and yes, underachieving) players are the real problems of the team. Many of these can be fixed by putting a Coach in place that puts talent in position to succeed, armed with a game plan that matches their skill sets. That hasn’t happened for much of the last 2+ seasons.

Ask yourself this: What other organization can steeply raise prices across the board and deliver such an average product? Even worse than losing is that they’ve become BORING. From the General Manager, to the Coach and now finally tricked down to the ice, the team is void of flair, personality and FUN. That’s perhaps the biggest knock against the brand of hockey that the Jacques Martin era will be known for. Montreal is a city teeming with flair, fun and personality, and given how tightly woven the Habs are in the fabric of the city, their current state is a loose thread on the tapestry. Yet legions of people are willing to accept it? I understand “accepting it because you’re virtually powerless to change it” (you’re not, by the way), but I cannot comprehend anybody “accepting it because you think it’s good enough”. By the way, the Canadiens have played many poor games this year, and currently have the worst home record in the league. Some reward for those people who scramble to find ways, despite the rapidly escalating prices, to go to the Bell Center and buy up all things Canadiens.

Rise Together? I guess if you’re at the bottom, then there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Maybe this has been the plan all along.

Yet as team owner Geoff Molson stands pat, offering his support for the General Manager, Head Coach, and Gomez alike, it seems all too clear that profits are a higher priority for the powers that be than winning is. This should come as no surprise. All outward appearances seem to indicate that making the playoffs and reaping pure profit from a couple home games is the goal. They tell us that the Cup is the goal, but as we all know, actions speak louder than words. In my last post, I’ve clearly showed that winning the Cup is a matter of home ice advantage. Without it, chances of glory are slim, yet that doesn’t stop pie-eyed optimists from believing that “anything is possible”. I don’t hold that belief against anybody, because anything is possible if you want to get in to semantics, but with just one of the last 34 Cup finalists winning it all (that’s 3%) without entering the playoffs with home ice advantage, I tend to put my stock in the overwhelming stat that has been proven over a long period of time.

And so we’ve become very good at limbo, because we happily bend over backwards to make time for this team, spend money on it and invest our hopes in it. What a pity.

Sadly, the Canadiens, through spin, media mouthpieces, marketing and PR have successfully lowered the bar to the point where making the playoffs is seen as some great accomplishment, and as a result, fans now believe that an upset or two (and even near-upsets) are highwater benchmarks of success.

Many of us know better. Unfortunately, it seems that not enough do.That, my friends, is the magic of good marketing.

During the post-game press conference following the Habs 3-2 shootout loss to the Sabres on Monday night, Head Coach Jacques Martin added to his ever-growing pile of perplexing, curious and false statements carefully designed to deflect pointed questions, avoid damning himself and erect trickster smokescreens. I’m not sure when he’s going to stop insulting the intelligence of the fans and media with his ridiculous answers, but it’s clear from the audacity of some of his replies that he’s running out of tricks.

In a game where the Canadiens dictated the pace and tone through 40 minutes, something changed during the second intermission. In easing back on the accelerator, the Canadiens let the upstart Sabres back in the game. Whether the players were instructed to play it safe or if the players did it themselves out of instinct, lack of confidence or fear of winning, when asked for the reasons behind the Canadiens collapse, Martin offered up the following:

“…a lot of youth on the backend, and they took advantage”.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. With P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber, Alexei Emelin and Raphael Diaz patrolling the blue line, there certainly were many young kids trying to hold the fort. But is it right to blame them for the loss? A team that has ZERO shots on goal in the third period through 14 minutes sounds like a team that isn’t intent on doing the same things that made them successful through the first 40 minutes – and that includes much more than a handful of young defencemen who played their hearts out. Since taking over as Coach in 2009, Jacques Martin has proven nothing if not that he strongly favours his veterans and only leans on young players if he has no other choice. How else do you explain his overuse of Mathieu Darche on the powerplay? Or Travis Moen on top scoring lines? Or bypassing Lars Eller at nearly every turn despite his rapid improvement? Or benching a slumping Andrei Kostitsyn? Last season, P.K. Subban didn’t rise to prominence until both Markov and Gorges were lost, leaving Martin with no other choice but to play the high-risk/high-reward Subban for 20+ minutes per night.

So are the young defencemen truly to blame, as the Coach would have us believe, or is Martin taking the easy, predictable path of least resistance? After all, if he starts shining the light of blame on his veterans, he can kiss his locker room support – and eventually his job – goodbye. It’s the last bastion of a Coach who can’t adapt, adjust to an evolving game, or make the best use of available resources. Whether it’s strategy or tactics, he simply marinates in old school game plans, then wraps himself in the kevlar vest that is the happiness of veterans while cursing the youth at every turn.

As I listened to Martin drive over his young rearguards and then back over them again, I  thought back to the past two seasons. Oddly, I don’t remember him ever publicly smacking his veterans for their questionable-at-times play. So I took a look at the numbers, and admittedly it’s difficult to try and quantify poor defence. But if we look at turnovers/giveaways under the Jacques Martin reign, we’ll see some eye-popping numbers. No, turnovers aren’t the be-all-end-all metric, but they’re a good starting point. If we can agree that turnovers are a barometer of a player without an idea of what to do with the puck, a player in a panic, a player without poise and without the benefit of experience, then surely veterans must be the opposite, and the numbers will reflect that, right?

Let’s start with this current 2011-12 season. The Canadiens are currently 4th overall in the league in giveaways – that’s 4th most, not 4th least. At first glance you’ll say “AHA! You see, with some many young defencemen, it’s no wonder they’re 4th overall!” Ok, but keep reading. Among the defencemen, it should shock nobody that Subban leads the pack. He’s committed the 6th most turnovers in the entire league, with 17. It’s no surprise that Subban has struggled this year, mightily at times and was guilty of the turnover that led to the Sabres tying goal on Monday night. We’ll concede this to Coach Martin. Right on Subban’s heels is Hal Gill, coming in at 11th place with 16 turnovers, followed by Yannick Weber (31st with14), Josh Gorges (50th with 12) and Raphael Diaz (115th with 9). For their parts, Emelin and Spacek were way down the list, so we’ll let them off the hook. But overall it’s a pretty fair mix of vets and young players, wouldn’t you say? But no, in Martin’s mind it’s easier to only single out the under-25 set. You’ll tell me that Gill didn’t play, and Spacek left Monday’s Buffalo game early. True, but take a look – Gill is still near the top of the leaderboard even if he hasn’t played every game. Hal Gill of 1000+ games played! (Disclaimer: I really like Hal Gill; he can play on my team as long as he wants; his good outweighs the bad).

In Martin’s first season as Habs Coach, the Canadiens committed 910 turnovers, good for 2nd most in the entire league. Leading the group? Roman Hamrlik (3rd in the NHL with 86), Jaroslav Spacek (4th in the NHL with 81), and Hal Gill (8th in the NHL with 76). Well that’s weird. Weren’t those players all in their mid-thirties at the time, with the benefit of experience that thousands of games under their collective belts provides? 2 of the top 5 in the league? 3 of the top 10? Funny, I don’t recall Coach Martin ever blaming his veterans for the team’s defensive woes back then, do you?

Last season in 2010-2011, the Canadiens had a marked improvement. They finished the year with 738 turnovers, still good for a lousy 7th in the NHL. It’s pretty sad when a 7th place finish is seen as a big improvement. Leading the pack? James Wisniewski (23rd with 67, with Isles and Habs), Hal Gill (30th with 62 giveaways),  Subban (49th with 56 and who was a rookie playing the role of a #1 defenceman), Jaroslav Spacek (54th with 55) and Roman Hamrlik (62nd with 53). So while there was a significant improvement, and nobody was even in the top 20, as a team the Canadiens were still guilty of far too many turnovers, and it was largely the veterans who were at fault. Still, we never heard Martin come down on them.

I’ve intentionally left the forwards out of the mix, but rest assured that veterans like Plekanec, Cammalleri and Gomez have all been guilty of many, many turnovers in the past 2+ seasons. Seasoned veterans, all three of them, and they all are among the team leaders in coughing up the puck.

If you’re still with me, I thank you for sticking around. It can be challenging to slog through so many stats and it can be even harder to make sense of them. If you leave this page with any sort of takeaway, it’s this:

• Experienced defencemen are vitally important, but it’s lazy to always blame young rearguards simply because the Coach says so, or because they make the easiest, most convenient target. The numbers show, at least in part, that in the Jacques Martin era, veterans are just as likely as young defencemen to make egregious turnovers. Regardless of who’s in the lineup (old or young) this team coughs the puck up with regularity.

Instead of pointing the finger of blame at the young blue line, perhaps Martin should be made to explain why his team constantly eases off in third periods? If they maintained an aggressive forecheck, and truly were a puck possession team as he claims they are, then the puck would spend more time in the offensive zone and the “culpable kids” would have less burden on their shoulders, no? We know he said that it’s not the plan to back off, but as I pointed out in part 1, he’s either full of it, or he has incompetent players, and I’m certain it’s not the latter.

With a litany of preposterous answers on the record, Jacques Martin is steadily painting himself in to a corner. The answers all dovetail nicely with his most preposterous claim of all – that the Canadiens are in fact a puck-possession team. How can that possibly be true when his team:

• Gives away the puck more often than the average team?
• Is perennially close to the bottom of the league in goals for?
• Has been in the bottom third of the league in minor penalties for the past 2+ seasons?

Is there something that the Wizard of Oz is keeping secret from us lowly, uneducated fans and bloggers? If it hasn’t become obvious already, this team is often an unfocused, confused group under the watch of Jacques Martin. Getting by with miraculous goaltending is not a sustainable plan for winning.

I’m not saying that the Habs’ young defencemen are perfect or that any of them are going to earn a Norris nomination any time soon. But it’s not asking too much for Martin to show a little even-handedness when doling out accountability through the media. If, as some suggest, falling back to protect a lead is a sign of a team without confidence or experience, then it would behoove the coach to stop throwing the kids to the wolves. The last time I looked, young players not only comprise the majority of his defensive corps right now, but more than anything they need encouragement and mentoring. Not the goat horns.

Let’s get the young players out of the way first, since by simply showing up they’ll reach certain low-hanging fruits:

Carey Price: he who just celebrated his 24th birthday will undoubtedly pick up his 100th win of his young career, as he’s only 2 wins shy of that mark today. He may even have that milestone locked up by the end of the first weekend of action. If Price has a season similar to last year, he’ll also have a decent shot at his 20th career shutout. That puts him about 100 behind Martin Brodeur, who hasn’t retired yet, but who’s counting?

Andrei Kostitsyn: If fans want to continue to talk about “potential” with this lad, I’m going to continue putting him in the younguns group. When you take a look at the milestones that are within AK46′s reach this year (in a Habs jersey or not), you can kinda see where fans are feeling impatient with him. He’ll play his 400th career game as the playoff push reaches its peak, but he’ll almost certainly hit 100 career goals, and 100 career assists (and thus 200 career points) well before that. Doesn’t it feel like he has – or should have – scored 100 career goals already?

P.K. Subban: He’ll play his 100th game as the season creeps past the 1/4 pole, and if he avoids the dreaded “Sophomore Jinx” and turns in a Norris candidate season (yes, I know that’s a bit of a reach), he’ll threaten to break 100 career points. If that happens, General Manager Gauthier better grow some long arms because he’ll have to reach deep in to his pockets to keep Subban happy.

Max Pacioretty: Following near decapitation, it will be interesting to see if the Habs young scorer can pick up where he left off last season. An exceptionally healthy and productive 2011-2012 campaign will see Pacioretty breach 200 career games, while threatening the 50 career goals mark as well as the 100 career points plateau.

David Desharnais, Lars Eller, Ryan White and Yannick Weber will all break the “100 career games” barrier. Significant statistical milestones are still way down the road for these four. Establishing themselves as full-time NHLers remains job #1 for them, and they’ll all undoubtedly reach that status this season.

Alexei Emelin, Raphael Diaz and other assorted young hopefuls and farmhands will crack an NHL roster for the first time this year. Hey, you gotta start somewhere.

As for the veterans on the team, the milestones are as beefy as their paychecks.

Perhaps the most significant of all of reachable milestones for this Habs bunch will take place (barring injury of course) on October 20th in Pittsburgh, where he won a Stanley Cup ring. Hal Gill will play his 1000th career game. Not bad for a guy who has been the butt of many, many “slow as molasses” jokes for his entire career. He must be doing something right to have stuck around this long, and 1000 games is a LONG time.

Not far behind is Jaroslav Spacek, his 66th match will be the 900th of his successful career.

If his past two seasons are any indication, then these upcoming milestones may have to wait a while longer. But let’s be positive and believe that the worst is behind for
Andrei Markov, who will have to be remarkably healthy if he wants to play his 700th career game. If he hasn’t lost any of his tremendous skill, then he may also flirt with (but probably not reach) his 100th career goal (he sits at 81). He will, however, probably notch his 300th career assist and 400th career point; he only needs 15 and 34 respectively to reach those benchmarks.

Is this season the last in a Habs uniform for Josh Gorges? I sure as hell hope not. He  just celebrated a birthday (his 27th) and will be entering the prime of his career. For a kid who was signed as an undrafted free agent, Gorges has since gone on to play in 364 NHL games. His 36th game of the upcoming season will be his 400th. Not to shabby at all. If you want to consider 10 career goals for a typical stay-at-home defenseman in the middle of his career as as a milestone, then more power to you, as that’s what Gorges is looking at this season. 10 career goals? Eat your heart out, P.J. Stock.

Mike Cammalleri: the proud new father may have other things on his mind right now, but he has a handful of meaningful milestones on the horizon: His 4th game of the year will be  number 500 for his career. His 23rd goal will be his 200th, while his 16th point will be his 400th.

Brian Gionta: even if the Captain plays in every regular season game, he will fall just shy of playing his 700th career game. Gionta will never be confused with Adam Oates, Craig Janney, and other skilled set up men, but his 5th assist of the season will be the 200th of his career, to go along with his 209 career goals.

Scott Gomez: Spacek won’t be the only member of the team to hit 900 career games played. In what everyone, Gomez especially, hopes is a big bounce-back year, he’s also in line to rack up his 700th career point. He only needs to post 25 points to get there, but let’s hope he can get there sooner than later.

Tomas Plekanec: Mr. Everything for the Habs is quietly racking up some impressive longevity numbers. His 30th game of the year will be his 500th career game played, and his 14th assist will be the 200th of his career. Fun game: will Plekanec pick up 14 assists for 200 before Gionta picks up 5 for 200 on his career?

Erik Cole: the Habs prized off-season acquisition will have to prove that he can be durable for more than one full season if he wants to play in his 700th career game. He currently sits at 620 and will have to play in all but 2 regular season games to reach this milestone. Also within reach for Cole is his 200th career goal (16 goals shy), and his 400th point (10 points shy).

Travis Moen: The ultimate plumber has shown he has staying power, as evidenced by his 522 career games; each one of them played in a punishing, rugged style that takes a toll not only on opponents, but on the player himself. He’s been remarkably healthy during the course of his hard-fought career and if he plays in 78 games, that’ll be good enough to put him up to 600 for his career. His 7th goal of the year, should he get there, will represent his 50th career goal, while his 2nd assist will also put him up to 50 for his career. All told, his 9th point will put him in to triple digits for his career.

Mathieu Darche: The man is all guts and courage, and he’s fought hard to play in each one of his 189 career games spanning 11 years and 5 NHL teams. His 11th game of the year will put him at the 200 games played level; not so impressive for players with “pedigree”, but for this blogger, I can’t think of a sweeter milestone reached for any member of the team this year. He’s well deserving of his new contract, and should have the admiration of all hockey fans.

Peter Budaj: Let’s hope he’s a patient guy. There’s really not a lot for Price’s new backup to look forward to. His 100th loss (currently at 91) and 10th career shutout (currently at 9) are within reach. Let’s just say that if he does hit 100 career losses, his season will be a spectacular failure, or it means that Price gets hurt and Budaj is pressed in to more action than any of us bargained or hoped for.

While the season is still over a month away, and while changes to the roster may still take place, it always helps to stoke the fires of enthusiasm by looking ahead to what the year may hold in store for us and for the Habs. Needless to say, if the majority of the above listed milestones can be hit, the Habs can look forward to a very strong season.

Which milestone do you see as the most important? I look at the potential milestones within reach for Markov, Pacioretty and Cole as important beacons. If those 3 players can remain on the ice, the numbers should follow, and that’s a great omen for fans.

We use the word a lot when describing players, and it has a double meaning. One is good, the other is not good whatsoever.

I’ll include each player’s cap hit, and make a couple assumptions, namely that Markov will sign for a 5.75M cap hit, that Gorges will also be back, at an undetermined cap hit, and that Mathieu Darche will occupy a full-time 4th line role, as opposed to being a part-timer.

From there, we’ll have a solid idea of where Gauthier will be able to spend – assuming there’s place left on the roster.

Forwards

1st line: Tomas Plekanec (5M cap hit), Mike Cammalleri (6M cap hit), winger to be named later. 1st line cap hit today: 11M

2nd line: Scott Gomez (7.357 cap hit), Brian Gionta (5M cap hit), Max Pacioretty (1.625 cap hit). 2nd line cap hit today: 13.982M

3rd line: Lars Eller (1.27M cap hit), Travis Moen (1.5M cap hit), Andrei Kostitsyn (3.25M cap hit). 3rd line cap hit today: 6.021M

4th line: David Desharnais (.75M cap hit), Mathieu Darche (.7M cap hit), winger to be named later (likely Ryan White- cap hit TBD). 4th line cap hit today: 1.45M

Total for 10 forwards: 32.453M

Defensemen

1st pair: Andrei Markov (5.75 cap hit), Josh Gorges (cap hit TBD). 1st pair cap hit today: 5.75M

2nd pair: Hal Gill (2.25M cap hit), P.K. Subban (.875 cap hit). 2nd pair cap hit today: 3.125M

3rd pair: Alexei Emelin (.984M cap hit), Jaroslav Spacek (3.83M cap hit). 3rd pair cap hit today: 4.814M

Total for 5 defensemen: 13.689M

Goaltending:

Carey Price (2.75M cap hit) Backup TBD.

Total for 1 goaltender: 2.75M.

Buyouts: .5M (Laraque)

Final Tally:

The Canadiens have currently spent, to the best of my knowledge $49.392 million on 10 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 1 goaltender. This leaves 14.608M for a top line winger, a 4th line winger (White), and 2 press box attendees. On defense, they have to account for Gorges, and Weber (or another 7th defenseman). Finally, a backup goalie would be required to fill out the 23 man roster.

While 14 million sounds like a lot, consider that Gorges will take at least 3.5 million of that. White will eat up .75M. 7th defensemen and press box forwards also come cheap; let’s account 3 million for those 3 guys on the generous end. That’s another 7.25 eaten up, leaving 7.36M for a top line winger, as well as some buffer space for injury call ups and perhaps an addition or two at the trade deadline.

We’ll see how things play out, but it’s clear that Gauthier has a bit of cash to play with, provided the Habs are going to be a cap team again this year.

What are your thoughts on the current roster and the remaining cap space?

The Boston Bruins have finally won a Stanley Cup. I never thought I’d have to come to grips with this reality, but alas here it is. It’s pretty bad…but I gotta say, it’s not as bad as I thought it would be. I’m back at work today, and I assume you are doing whatever it is you do on a daily basis. It’s going to be a sunny, beautiful 28°C here in Montreal today. I don’t know what the forecast is where you are, but it has to be somewhere in that neighborhood.

As a Habs fan, the thought of guys like Chara, Marchand, Ference, Lucic and Campbell hoisiting the cup is repulsive, and revolting. It’s hard to reconcile douchebaggery, outright barbarism, and classless behavior with “Stanley Cup Champs”, but that’s the reality today. Whatever we think of the Bruins, and what they were allowed to get away with this season, there’s no doubt that they were the better team in the Cup finals. We Habs fans can take a small measure of comfort knowing that the Canadiens pushed the Bruins harder than any other team, even though they also went to seven games against the Lightning and Canucks. We also can be fairly certain that if Max Pacioretty had been around, the outcome of that opening series would have been different…and no…that’s not to say that the Canadiens would have went on to win the Cup because that’s nothing but a BIG fat reach based in nothing but homerism. Arpon Basu had a great piece on this flawed line of thought.

Still, we have to give the Bruins credit no matter how much we believe they were aided by Campbell, Bettman, the refs or Hockey Gods Gone Mad. It’s clear that karma is a dead concept, but nevertheless, the Bruins accomplished some amazing things since the playoffs began. They were the first team to win a playoff series without scoring a single power play goal (vs Montreal). They’re the first team to ever win a Cup by winning three seven-game series (Montreal, Tampa and Vancouver). They were (I think) the first team to win the Cup when falling behind 0-2 in two separate series (they also had to come from behind against Tampa). Their even strength supremacy should be an indication to all teams relying on “special teams and goaltending” (coughHabscough) where their priorities should be.

The Bruins netminder also deserves credit. Let’s put aside his comment “Subban is a travesty to the game” comment for just a moment. Yes, it was dumb, especially when you consider that the Bruins had just knocked off the Habs. It’s called being a gracious winner, and the Bruins are woefully unfamiliar with the concept. It’s hardwired in to Bruin DNA (one needs to look at what happened to guys like Nathan Horton and Mark Recchi when they became Bruins). Still, we have to face facts. Thomas fought back from a mediocre 09-10 season where he pretty much lost his job to Tuukka Rask. He ripped the starting job back, and then faced down Carey Price (3 times in overtime, to boot), whatever the Flyers could muster in goal, Dwayne Roloson and Roberto Luongo to win the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup. Oh, and he’s also going to win the Vezina trophy, too. His numbers are astounding; .938 save percentage in the regular season, and a 35-11 record. Sure he only started 57 games, but if he had started 67, would his number have been any worse? There’s nothing to suggest that. Why? Because in the playoffs, he got even better at stopping the puck against superior teams. He posted a .940 save percentage over 25 playoff games, and was at his best in the Finals. When the pressure was at its highest, he gave up 8 goals in 7 games in the final series including a shutout in enemy territory. Against the league’s top team. Ladies and gents, that’s called dominance. We can sit back and hurl whatever names we want to in his direction, but they’re born of bitterness. Tim Thomas has just completed a season for the ages and there’s nothing anybody can say to refute that. He may be a tad overweight, but he’s not overrated. At least not in 2010-2011. We can twist stats to suit our agendas, but hockey is a result-oriented business, and who delivered better results than Thomas this year? The answer is nobody. For that, he has my admiration and respect.

Credit also has to go to Claude Julien for keeping the ship on course when it could have easily sunk after the first two home games vs Montreal. Some Bruins fans don’t like the conservative coach, but I wonder what they have to say today? Again, results matter. It’s all that matters in hockey, which at least partially explains why the Bruins choose to be the barbarians that they are.

Continuing along the getting results path, big kudos this morning for Bruins General Manager Peter Chiarelli. The work he has done to build up the Bruins has to be met with nothing but laurels. Confession: when he acquired Rich Peverley from Atlanta, I had a sinking feeling. Not because Peverley is a world-beater, but because when a guy of that quality is brought in to center the fourth line, you’re sitting pretty. His prime acquisition of Kaberle nearly cost him dearly…but there’s that word again: results. Chiarelli is getting a Cup ring for his troubles while every other GM is figuring out what to do next. Delivering the goods with Cam Neely breathing down his neck couldn’t have been much fun, but he pulled the right strings and put the puzzle together. Props.

So as the sun finally sets on what was an ugly NHL season, marred by horrific officiating, horrific injuries, and a nightmare ending for Habs fans (and I guess you, too Canucks fans), I offer my congrats to the Bruin players and management that I don’t want to skewer with a sharpened telephone pole: Patrice Bergeron, Tim Thomas, Chris Kelly, Claude Julien, Doug Jarvis and Peter Chiarelli. Oh, and I can’t forget the few Bruins fans that I truly am happy for today: Doug, CJ, and a handful of others who deserve to know what being a champ feels like. Enjoy it! May you never feel like this again! ; )

Now that I’m safely logged in, I just want to get something out of the way, and hopefully won’t take up too much of your time.

Every year around this time, we Habs fans sit around the campfire and look for the shiniest object with which we can adorn our team with. This year, many Habs fans have set their sights on Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber. Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have a guy like Weber in the lineup, even at the hefty price tag he’s sure to command. But (there’s always a but, isn’t there?) there’s a heavy cost to snatching a guy of Weber’s caliber away from the Predators over and above his nasty cap hit.

Most Habs fans simply assume that tossing an RFA offer sheet at Weber, and forcing Nashville – a team with its own internal budget that is surely far lower than the Canadiens – to match the Habs rich offer or surrender his services. Let’s all do the happy dance, right?

You see, there’s a reason why pilfering RFAs from other teams is a rarely used method of player acquisition. On one hand, it’s the NHL equivalent of M.A.D – mutually assured destruction. You want my RFA? I’m taking yours. And the spiraling costs will simply lead to another work stoppage. Just ask Kevin Lowe if he wants a mulligan on the Dustin Penner acquisition, or ask Buffalo how they feel about having to match Lowe’s ludicrous offer to Thomas Vanek. On the other hand, I believe that what goes around, comes around. If the Habs want to swipe Shea Weber, somebody will be all too eager to take a stab at acquiring PK Subban, Carey Price, Lars Eller, or Max Pacioretty in the very near future. Given the heavy contracts the Canadiens are already saddled with, you can safely bet that at least one of those players would be plying their trade elsewhere. Also, in the ultimate safeguard against making RFA pitches for all-star talent, there’s the little issue of compensation to the other team after they fail to match the courting team’s offer.

If you want to sign an RFA, then depending on the annual cap hit they bring them, you have to give up the following assets to the other team:

Now we can safely assume that Shea Weber will fall somewhere between the last two brackets. The Canadiens already fairly thin on the farm, with little prime talent on the horizon. Dropping more high-end picks would be nothing more than a short-term payoff with a suicidal ending. Moreover, when you factor in that Montreal typically has to overpay free agents to compensate for the fishbowl, taxes, politics, (take your pick), it’s also reasonable to believe that Shea Weber would fetch over 7.533 million per season, thus forcing the Habs to kick back four first round picks to Nashville.

Read that again.

Four.

First.

Round.

Picks.

Gone.

Sure, Gauthier could always try to recoup those lost picks in other ways, but you’ve got to ask yourself if the high cap hit and lost assets would be worth acquiring one defenseman. And as a final killshot to this fantasy, let’s remember that the collective bargaining agreement is up at the end of next season, and is sure to have ramifications on how teams dole out contracts over the next year or so. It would be similarly stupid for Gauthier to saddle himself with another fat contract while ridding himself of prime assets.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

In the meantime, I’m going to write down my username and password for safe keeping.

This series was an epic battle to be sure, and each team had to dig deep for results; Boston salvaged their playoff lives just in time after falling behind two games (a shame that now is the time they get their first series win after dropping the first two games), while the Habs fought back to force a deciding seventh game; and fought back even harder to push that game in to sudden death. When a series goes to overtime in a seventh game, it’s obviously anybody’s to win, and sadly for Habs fans, there was only so much blood to be squeezed from the stone.

Prior to the start of the series, if I had told you that David Krejci, Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara and Tomas Kaberle would combine for a total of 2 goals and 4 assists in 27 games played, and that the Bruins would score exactly zero power play goals in the series, you would have thought that the Habs were certainly going to take it. Strangely and cruelly enough, you’d be wrong.

Today isn’t the day to point fingers, but here’s a stat that reveals a fatal flaw in “The System”.

The Canadiens and Bruins both scored 17 goals in the series, for an average of 2.43 goals per game. It doesn’t get tighter than that. The issue is this: While the aforementioned invisible Bruins combined for a paltry 6 points, they were also a combined +1. How does that happen? Looking at the teams a little more closely, we see that only 5 Bruins players were on the wrong side of the +/- stat: Krejci (-1), Thornton, Seidenberg, Paille, and Campbell were all -2. Needless to say, three of those guys are not what I’d call crucial to the Bruins success and as such don’t receive a heck of a lot of ice time. Contrast that with the Habs, who had 13 players on the wrong side of the ledger: Gionta and Gomez at -6. Cammalleri at -5. Wizniewski at -3, Spacek at -3, Subban at -2, Sopel at -2, and half a dozen others at -1. Only Weber and Eller were +1. Again, I’m not pointing fingers at individual players, but rather at a system that forces the Habs to win the special teams battle by such a wide margin that it essentially negates what happens at even strength, where the vast majority of a hockey game is played. The power play was terrific, and the penalty kill was better than perfect when you factor in Plekanec’s short handed goal. But without even strength production, you can’t win in the long run.

There are other factors contributing to the series loss, and I’m sure you’ll read about them. While losing to the head-hunting, bird-flipping, lie-telling Bruins stings in the worst way imagineable, there’s never been more reason to be optimistic. The Habs core is in place, and youngsters like Price, Subban, Eller, Desharnais, Pacioretty all revealed themselves to be superb NHL players over the course of the season – and they’re all going to make huge strides in development in the coming years (Dear Salary Cap: Please keep rising!). Gauthier has a lot of work in filling out and improving the roster, but this is clearly the best team we’ve seen in a very long time, and I’m already looking forward to October.