Tag Archives: Carey Price

A Tangled Weber

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I’ll admit up front that the larger point of this blog entry was to see if I remembered my login details for my own website (mission accomplished!).

Now that I’m safely logged in, I just want to get something out of the way, and hopefully won’t take up too much of your time.

Every year around this time, we Habs fans sit around the campfire and look for the shiniest object with which we can adorn our team with. This year, many Habs fans have set their sights on Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber. Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have a guy like Weber in the lineup, even at the hefty price tag he’s sure to command. But (there’s always a but, isn’t there?) there’s a heavy cost to snatching a guy of Weber’s caliber away from the Predators over and above his nasty cap hit.

Most Habs fans simply assume that tossing an RFA offer sheet at Weber, and forcing Nashville – a team with its own internal budget that is surely far lower than the Canadiens – to match the Habs rich offer or surrender his services. Let’s all do the happy dance, right?

You see, there’s a reason why pilfering RFAs from other teams is a rarely used method of player acquisition. On one hand, it’s the NHL equivalent of M.A.D – mutually assured destruction. You want my RFA? I’m taking yours. And the spiraling costs will simply lead to another work stoppage. Just ask Kevin Lowe if he wants a mulligan on the Dustin Penner acquisition, or ask Buffalo how they feel about having to match Lowe’s ludicrous offer to Thomas Vanek. On the other hand, I believe that what goes around, comes around. If the Habs want to swipe Shea Weber, somebody will be all too eager to take a stab at acquiring PK Subban, Carey Price, Lars Eller, or Max Pacioretty in the very near future. Given the heavy contracts the Canadiens are already saddled with, you can safely bet that at least one of those players would be plying their trade elsewhere. Also, in the ultimate safeguard against making RFA pitches for all-star talent, there’s the little issue of compensation to the other team after they fail to match the courting team’s offer.

If you want to sign an RFA, then depending on the annual cap hit they bring them, you have to give up the following assets to the other team:

Salary Amount Compensation
$994,433 or less None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716 3rd round pick
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 2nd round pick
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 1st and 3rd round pick
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
Over $7,533,584 Four 1st round picks

Now we can safely assume that Shea Weber will fall somewhere between the last two brackets. The Canadiens already fairly thin on the farm, with little prime talent on the horizon. Dropping more high-end picks would be nothing more than a short-term payoff with a suicidal ending. Moreover, when you factor in that Montreal typically has to overpay free agents to compensate for the fishbowl, taxes, politics, (take your pick), it’s also reasonable to believe that Shea Weber would fetch over 7.533 million per season, thus forcing the Habs to kick back four first round picks to Nashville.

Read that again.

Four.

First.

Round.

Picks.

Gone.

Sure, Gauthier could always try to recoup those lost picks in other ways, but you’ve got to ask yourself if the high cap hit and lost assets would be worth acquiring one defenseman. And as a final killshot to this fantasy, let’s remember that the collective bargaining agreement is up at the end of next season, and is sure to have ramifications on how teams dole out contracts over the next year or so. It would be similarly stupid for Gauthier to saddle himself with another fat contract while ridding himself of prime assets.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

In the meantime, I’m going to write down my username and password for safe keeping.

Swan Song

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At the end of the day, the Habs just didn’t have enough left to “fight the good fight”. If we’re looking for reasons as to why the Habs fell after owning a 2-0 series lead, certainly the injuries will rise to the top of the list. And not just the injuries to Markov, Gorges and Pacioretty. Desharnais left the series, Kostitsyn was skating on a bad paw, Halpern wasn’t ready to return from injury, Gill and Hamrlik were reportedly playing with injuries…incredibly the list goes on, yet the Habs pushed this to 7 games and gave the heavily favoured Bruins more than they could handle. We can only wonder how things would have been different if the Habs would have been closer to their real identity.

This series was an epic battle to be sure, and each team had to dig deep for results; Boston salvaged their playoff lives just in time after falling behind two games (a shame that now is the time they get their first series win after dropping the first two games), while the Habs fought back to force a deciding seventh game; and fought back even harder to push that game in to sudden death. When a series goes to overtime in a seventh game, it’s obviously anybody’s to win, and sadly for Habs fans, there was only so much blood to be squeezed from the stone.

Prior to the start of the series, if I had told you that David Krejci, Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara and Tomas Kaberle would combine for a total of 2 goals and 4 assists in 27 games played, and that the Bruins would score exactly zero power play goals in the series, you would have thought that the Habs were certainly going to take it. Strangely and cruelly enough, you’d be wrong.

Today isn’t the day to point fingers, but here’s a stat that reveals a fatal flaw in “The System”.

The Canadiens and Bruins both scored 17 goals in the series, for an average of 2.43 goals per game. It doesn’t get tighter than that. The issue is this: While the aforementioned invisible Bruins combined for a paltry 6 points, they were also a combined +1. How does that happen? Looking at the teams a little more closely, we see that only 5 Bruins players were on the wrong side of the +/- stat: Krejci (-1), Thornton, Seidenberg, Paille, and Campbell were all -2. Needless to say, three of those guys are not what I’d call crucial to the Bruins success and as such don’t receive a heck of a lot of ice time. Contrast that with the Habs, who had 13 players on the wrong side of the ledger: Gionta and Gomez at -6. Cammalleri at -5. Wizniewski at -3, Spacek at -3, Subban at -2, Sopel at -2, and half a dozen others at -1. Only Weber and Eller were +1. Again, I’m not pointing fingers at individual players, but rather at a system that forces the Habs to win the special teams battle by such a wide margin that it essentially negates what happens at even strength, where the vast majority of a hockey game is played. The power play was terrific, and the penalty kill was better than perfect when you factor in Plekanec’s short handed goal. But without even strength production, you can’t win in the long run.

There are other factors contributing to the series loss, and I’m sure you’ll read about them. While losing to the head-hunting, bird-flipping, lie-telling Bruins stings in the worst way imagineable, there’s never been more reason to be optimistic. The Habs core is in place, and youngsters like Price, Subban, Eller, Desharnais, Pacioretty all revealed themselves to be superb NHL players over the course of the season – and they’re all going to make huge strides in development in the coming years (Dear Salary Cap: Please keep rising!). Gauthier has a lot of work in filling out and improving the roster, but this is clearly the best team we’ve seen in a very long time, and I’m already looking forward to October.

Expectations

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It’s a word that we use often. Pierre McGuire constantly reminds us to “manage” them, but we often let them get away from us just the same. When we talk about individual players, coaches, teams and outcomes, we all have our own expectations for what the final analysis should read. Sometimes their fair, sometimes they’re more fantasy than reality-based.

I can’t recall a playoff series that has such a wide gamut of expectations on either side of the fence as this 33rd matchup between Montreal and Boston. Both sides expect (demand?) victory, and both sides have compelling cases as to why their side will come out on top.

No doubt Bruins fans, and indeed Bruins management expect their team to employ the ‘Big, Bad Bruins’ philosophy. It’s been their identity for decades, and it’s how they play the game. They’ll expect the belief of superior size, and skill, propelled by their two most recent home wins over Montreal, to grind the Habs in to a gooey tri-coloured paste. They’ll expect to break the Canadiens’ will through intimidation. The Bruins almost certainly expect to prove that their Northeast Division win wasn’t all for naught, and they want to do it with authority. Their Head Coach, Claude Julien expects that his team will carry their strong regular season in to the playoffs with their rough-and-tumble style, and escape the first round unscathed (no doubt he has to expect that, otherwise he can expect to be shown the door). General Manager Peter Chiarelli clearly expects big things, as he was the one pulling the trigger on significant trade deadline upgrades. He will have answering to do if the Bruins don’t go very deep in the playoffs.

The Bruins see this postseason as a prime chance to win it all for the first time since 1972. They’ve added Tomas Kaberle, Rich Peverley, and Chris Kelly for their playoff run…you don’t make those types of additions if you don’t think your window is wide open. These moves signaled the Bruins intentions and expectations, and they desperately want to capitalize before that window slams shut. The pressure is squarely and intensely on the Bruins to squash their pesky little foes and take another step in leveling the scales – which currently tip heavily in Montreal’s favour: 24 playoff series victories to the Bruins’ 8. Should the Bruins again fall to their bitter rivals (the Habs represent the ultimate bear trap) you can expect a lot of questions. You can expect a lot of anger. You can probably also expect some big changes.

The Bruins have elite goaltending, but I’m not sure what to expect of Tim Thomas, and I bet I’m not the only one. He’s a virtual lock for the Vézina trophy as the league’s best regular season goaltender, as he should be, but his numbers against the Habs are anything but impressive. Who will we see? The former and probable once-again Vézina winner, or the guy with bambi legs when facing the Habs?

Goaltending aside, there’s a lot of very good talent up front wearing black and gold. Bergeron, Horton, Krejci, Peverley, Ryder, Recchi, Marchand and Lucic are all terrific players in their own right. They’re a solid mix of power, skill, speed, and sharpshooting. Overall they lack playoff experience, but Dr. Recchi’s long career probably carries enough experience for everyone to share in. Defensively, however is where the Bruins are vulnerable. Outside of Chara, their defense is nothing to write home about. They’re not horrendous, but the quicker Habs forwards should be able to exploit that weakness – provided the Canadiens can get possession of the puck.

As for the Habs and their fans, last year’s improbable run deep in to the playoffs broke ground that nobody with the CH tatooed on their heart had seen since 1993 - a lifetime for fans spoiled by annual Cup parades. That run to the Eastern Conference Finals – for better or worse – sent the explicit message that simply making the playoffs is no longer enough. The happy news – if you can call it that – is that both the team and fanbase seem to be in lock-step with this belief. The team knows the bar has been raised, and the fans are all too happy to go along with that.

Recall that just one year ago, it was a pretty much a brand new Habs roster, with new coaching, new management and new ownership…how could they have done what they did considering all of the upheaval? It was mind-boggling to be sure, but fast forward to the present day, and the new car smell has worn off this Habs team. The Canadiens are now expected to replicate their results from last year – or at the very least not bow out in round one – not to the hated Bruins – and especially not after what Chara did to Max Pacioretty. It’s simply unacceptable to Montreal fans – no matter their conference rankings – that the Canadiens be eliminated by the Bruins. It’s the bitterest of pills. Fans of the Bruins will undoubtedly be upset should the Bruins fail, but most of them will quickly get behind the Celtics and Red Sox to soothe their pain (though the Sox may not be the ideal place to find solace right now). In Montreal, fans will gnash their teeth over a loss to the Bruins all summer long.

Getting a little more granular, Habs fans expect greatness from Carey Price, despite his less-than-stellar career playoff numbers. His playoff experience certainly is a mixed bag, but think back to Price’s rookie season and his performances in the first round against the Bruins – most notably his game seven performance. His 5-11 playoff record is underwhelming, but it overshadows some brilliant performances, and is skewed by the complete no-show the Habs put forth during the centennial collpase. After a terrific regular season, and with a solid record against Boston over the past 2 years there’s little reason to expect anything different from the Habs netminder. He will almost certainly be good, but he needs to be better than Tim Thomas if the Canadiens are to win this series. There will be defensive lapses all around him and he will have to continue to bail out his mates, as has done since October.

With the aforementioned centennial sweep at the hands of the Bruins a long faded (repressed?) memory, it should not factor in to anybody’s psyche in this series; the Habs roster reset of last season took care of that, even if the Bruins choose to use that sweep as a source of confidence. So what else do Habs fans expect? Certainly they expect the best players to perform like the best players, as they should. That means Plekanec, Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta need to produce on the scoreboard, with no exceptions. If Plekanec can’t produce points on the road, if Gomez can’t salvage his disastrous season in the playoffs (where he usually excels), if Cammallieri goes stone cold again, and if Gionta is neutralized, the Habs are done like dinner. There cannot be any “yes, but X was good defensively” or “yeah but X played hurt” type of excuses if they fire blanks. Guys in their paygrade don’t earn several million dollars just to be defensively reliable; Jeff Halpern is. Mathieu Darche is. Tom Pyatt is. Also, at this stage, everyone has a nagging injury, so that excuse carries little water except for with apologists. This is the time of year when good players really earn the paychecks and make their names, so these four key cogs need to deliver on the scoreboard, end of story. It would be grossly unfair to the likes of Lars Eller, David Desharnais, Andrei Kostitsyn and Benoit Pouliot to expect them to carry the load offensively, and any production from Moen, Darche, Pyatt, Halpern, and White while certainly welcome, should be seen as found money. It can be argued that the Canadiens’ under-25 group is a prime reason why the Habs are in the playoffs, but it will have to be the highly paid veterans who lead the charge. Defensively, the group “is what it is”. They’re slow, old, not very tough and don’t move the puck particularly well. As they did in virtually each of the 82 games, the Canadiens will be caught running around their own zone in a frantic, disorganized mess from time to time. This is expected, and habitual with this team. Anyone surprised at that may need to be handed the smelling salts. While it’s unlikely for the defense to clean up its act now when they have even more miles on the tires, their veteran savvy may reveal a trick or two up their sleeve. Shot blocking is one thing; physicality, and quickly moving the puck with purpose are other animals entirely. By now you know which ones the Canadiens do well, and which ones they don’t. The questions is which of the things that they don’t do well can they mitigate the most?

We can expect Jacques Martin and his staff to be steady in their demeanor, even if it isn’t always deemed the ideal approach. Don’t expect any surprises. Don’t expect much emotion, or much reaction to anything. There will be canned coach-speak, and the common clichés. In this respect, the Habs coaching staff is as easy to set expectations for as it gets. If there’s one unfortunate expectation it’s that the coaching staff has been unable to stop the Canadiens from taking minor penalties through 82 games, and there’s not much reason to think they’ll find a way to stop it now…but any more bench minors for Too Many Men should be viewed as unacceptable. The Canadiens already spend too much time on the penalty kill and in their own end at even strength. There’s no need to make that problem worse by taking entirely preventable penalties. While the Habs usually do a good job of killing penalties, any time spent on the penalty kill is time wasted in the Bruins zone, and precious energy spent by the likes of Tomas Plekanec and Roman Hamrlik. On the flip side of the special teams battle, the Habs do a terrible job of drawing penalties. They’re not big enough to force opponents to take interference penalties, and they don’t play a style that allows their speed to force opponents to hook, hold, grab and trip with much frequency. In order for the Habs to get on the power play, they need to be antagonistic thorns in the Bruins’ side, and they need to avoid retaliating when they do raise the Bruins ire. They need to be that team that the Bruins constantly whine about. Getting under the Bruins’ skin and getting them off their game is paramount.

If the Canadiens are planning on applying pieces of last year’s playoff game plan to this year’s, it would be at best a risky gambit. While the Canadiens allowed offensive-minded players like Ovechkin, Semin, Crosby and Malkin to fire at will, once they faced the Flyers, who are a deeper, more evenly distributed team they were stopped dead in their tracks. This Bruins team more closely mirrors that fatal Flyers bunch in that there isn’t one or two players to shut down in order to win. Stop Ovechkin and Backstrom – you win. Stop Crosby and Malkin – you win. Stop Richards and Carter? Oops - what about Brière and Giroux? It’s tough to identify just a couple of Bruins to stop, because others are eminently capable of seamlessly filling the void; they’re like the Hydra that way. No doubt they’re a formidable group, and they’ll seek to overwhelm the slow-moving Habs defense. The Canadiens would love to block as many shots as they did last year, but it would be dangerous indeed to allow the Bruins free passage in the Habs zone as they did with the Capitals and Penguins.

At the end of this long-winded post, I’m expecting a simlarly long series that will go at least 6 games. I believe that whoever takes the first game will eventually win in 6 games…and I think Carey Price will steal game 1 in Boston.

Don’t Lose Sleep

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The playoffs are upon us, and that can only mean one thing.

No, not burning police cars or other forms of mass hysteria.

Ok, those things, too. But what I’m referring to is the infernal NHL awards and the infinitely tiresome debates that come with that territory.

In the NHL, there’s only one award that really matters, and that’s the one that gets hoisted a couple weeks prior to the perennially cheesy awards ceremony – the Stanley Cup.

While the Art Ross, Maurice Richard, and Jennings trophies are decided by stats alone, the rest are subjective in nature, voted on by media, players and NHL General Managers.

Potential candidates for awards have been bounced around for weeks now, and those with the privilege to vote have to have their submissions completed by the time the sun sets on the regular season.

Here in Montreal, and even in some places outside of Montreal, the virtues of Canadiens Molson Cup winner Carey Price are being extolled, and for very good reason. He’s an MVP in every sense of the word, and a fitting candidate for both the Vezina and Hart trophies. But whether or not he wins them is not so much of a question as whether or not he’s even nominated. While it’s unthinkable to us Habs fans that Price won’t even be nominated for either award, we should at least get used to the idea of the possibility. The same goes for PK Subban and the Calder trophy. The fact is that there are many amazing candidates who have been just as stellar as Price and Subban have been this season. Without getting in to a debate about who’s better and who’s numbers are more noteworthy, who worked under more pressure and more difficult circumstances, the real issue at hand is who gives a shit about these awards?

No doubt there will be many, many Habs fans who cry foul or pop off about some anti-Habs conspiracy at the league level if Price or Subban don’t get nominated or win outright, and I can only pray for the health and well being of those people. The candidates aren’t even announced yet, and both Habs players very well may get a nod and may also win some hardware for their showcase. Time will tell. But if they aren’t, and if they don’t, I won’t miss a moment’s sleep except for the prayers I’ll say for those going grey and hoarse over it.

In the end, why should we care? I suppose it’s great to say that “our guy” got the recognition and the love from those with power, and we can wield that like a royal sceptre but would not winning change what they’ve meant to the Habs this year, and what they mean to the long-term future of the team?

Good lord, no.

In fact, in a city where players need to be paid a premium just to come and play (damn taxes!), an MVP, or any other award would perhaps only tack on another million or two to retain the services of that player. After all, when you accomplish something significant in your career, you’d add it to your c.v., would you not? And you’d expect to get recognition in the form of monetary compensation, either from your current employer, or another one, correct?

For what it’s worth, I’ll take the guy that plays like an MVP, but doesn’t necessarily get paid as one. Besides, José Theodore parlayed an MVP award in to a long, rich contract that turned out to be toxic. It’s still a miracle that Gainey was able to wash his hands of that mistake. Not to compare Price and Theo, because they are totally different in every respect except for the fact that they both have a ton of hair, but my point is that I don’t need a hockey card with Price holding a trophy in his hand to know his value to the Habs.

There’s little point in getting angry over what the media, players and General Managers decide with their votes…after all, these are the same people who (media notwithstanding) can’t get player safety right, oppose common sense when it comes to protecting brains, don’t respect each other on the ice, foolishly overspend, and generally bumble their way from one CBA to another. Why should something relatively meaningless like award ceremonies get fans in a lather?

In short: don’t get your knickers in a twist if your ego isn’t sufficiently stroked with Habs in the mix for hardware…whether it’s a snub altogether, or merely as a runner up, not being recognized for an award is not a big deal, and may even save the Habs a few bucks on the salary cap.

Three Thin Arguments

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I’ve managed to stop chuckling barely long enough to bang out another blog post. This time I’m taking aim at three arguments that are currently fan favorites when describing the present-day Habs woes:

  1. Injuries
  2. “They’re still ahead of last year’s pace”
  3. “Look at what happened last year”

Spare me. These are all weak arguments that do nothing more than slather plaster over gaping cracks.

Let’s dismantle the arguments one by one, shall we?

1. Injuries

By now we can all agree that the Canadiens have been the walking wounded this year. Just about every defenseman has been on the shelf…even the guys brought in to replace injured regulars have found their way to the shelf. But we Habs fans tend to look at things with a very narrow lens. When one looks at the full picture, it shows that the Habs are actually in the bottom half of the league when it comes to man-games lost to injuries – that is to say that 16 teams (including 7 playoff teams as of last week) have suffered more man games lost to injuries than the Canadiens have. You can cite the quality over quantity argument if you’d like, but the fact is that Markov and Gorges have both been “replaced” with acquisitions (Wizniewski, Mara, Sopel) and while those 3 likely aren’t quite as good as the other two combined, the drop off isn’t so severe that it should affect the team’s fortunes to any significant degree. Up front, it’s pretty evident that Plekanec, and Cammalleri aren’t themselves, but as I mentioned here, when a player decides to play wounded, he is signing an implicit agreement that he’s good to go, with no excuses. If the player is hurt badly enough to prevent him from being a productive member of the team, stay home. Rest up, and come back when healthy. Having Pacioretty out of the lineup is also a big blow, no doubt. He was the Canadiens most productive forward at the time of his injury, and any time a guy like that is lost, there’s bound to be some pain. However, the loss of Pacioretty does not in any way explain why the Canadiens are 4-7 since losing him, while being badly outplayed in nearly every game over that stretch (the only games in which the Habs looked good, are games in which the opposition was dreadful – Pittsburgh and Minnesota). It also in no way begins to describe the lifeless, emotionless, complacent manner in which the Canadiens have taken to the ice in many games. Are they exhausted? Some guys probably are…in which case we need to ask the coaching staff why some guys were so foolishly overused. Nevertheless, who did the Penguins have to turn to in the absences of Crosby and Malkin?

No matter how you slice it, injuries are not the reason why they’re in such a funk. The Canucks have lost more than a hundred man games above and beyond the Canadiens. While they are certainly deeper offensively, their defensemen have been ravaged WORSE than the Habs all year. This has not prevented the Canucks from not only continuing to play well – but they are running away with the much tougher Western Conference, and will easily win the President’s Trophy as the top poing getting team in the league. They haven’t used injuries as a crutch. What’s that? They play in a weak division? Ok, ok, you got me. Sort of. It is a weak division, but the Canucks have beaten up on everyone all year, regardless where they play. Many teams have sacked up and played on to success - why can’t the Habs? Is it talent? Is it coaching? Uncontrollable circumstances? It’s certainly your right to decide. I simply choose to look at stats, and try to take a bigger look around before making blanket statements.

2. They’re Still Ahead of Last Year’s Pace

Today, the Canadiens sit 5 points ahead of their pace from last season. Is that really relevant? I’m not so sure. Last season, the Canadiens mark of 88 points in 82 games was enough to get them in to the playoffs, but it was the lowest point total for any playoff-bound team since the lockout ended. So if you want to measure this year’s team against a team that had set the bar so very low – more power to you. But let’s continue the charade.

The Habs are up 5 points over last year. Goodie! Again, using a wider lens, here’s how the other seven playoff-bound teams in the Eastern Conference (as of today) stack up in terms of points earned when compared to this point last year:

Philadelphia: +20
Capitals: -13
Bruins: +14
Penguins: +3
Lightning: +21
Canadiens: +5
Sabres: -19
Rangers: +7

Of those teams, only the Capitals and Sabres have had a big drop. Yet most would agree that this year’s Capitals team is much more balanced and well-rounded than last year’s juggernaut. As for the Sabres, well if you’re one of those that leans on injuries as the grand reason behind the struggles, the Sabres can also use that excuse – they sit in 18th in terms of man-games lost to injury, right behind the Canadiens.

Breaking down the numbers further, the average playoff team from this year is 4.75 points ahead of last year’s pace. Also of note is that 4 of them (Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals – 2 division leaders, don’t you know?) have had more injury troubles than Montreal. Can we round up 4.75 to 5? Presto!

So while the Canadiens remain ahead of their pace from last year, it doesn’t make them any better of a team relative to the other playoff teams in the conference.

3. Look at What Happened Last Year

There’s not much that can be said here. The Canadiens surprised everyone with their improbable 7-game upsets over Washington and Pittsburgh. The Canadiens discovered that a suicidal game plan can work – and it did - for a while. Offensively gifted (selfish?) players like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Malkin, Crosby were totally befuddled by their inability to beat Jaroslav Halak. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, it was mostly panic that forced them to shoot from the outside, and they allowed Habs defenders like Hal Gill and Josh Gorges to block a large portion of their shots. Halak, for his part, was unbeatable when he was on, but was awful when he was off. I don’t care what era you’re playing hockey in, when you ask your goalie to stop 40 to 50 shots in the playoffs, against some top players in the world - you’re asking for trouble. When they hit a deep, skilled, big team like the Flyers, they were summarily trounced, being shut out in 3 games of the series.

There’s a well-known adage that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. Hoping for the Habs to get hit again when they go up against the likes of Philly, Boston or Washington may be ok for some, but it doesn’t work for me. Yes, I will be there cheering for the team as hard as I can and willing them to whatever success I’m able to.

But I’m not going to blindly join those who ignore signs of concern, or choose to stay quiet about it since words (of any blogger/journalist/fan/twitterer) are for naught. It doesn’t make one a bandwagon jumper, nor does it make one a bad fan if they choose to shine a light on what they perceive to be some serious issues. Some would rather see nothing but unicorns and ice cream type posts. “Stay positive!” Sorry, that’s not for everyone. Some of us bring a critical eye to the web when it comes to the Habs, and that’s ok. The glass half-full crowd is fine, too. Where the whole house of cards falls apart is when both sides attack each other and resort to personal attacks. It isn’t a sin to expect better from the Habs, who had their eyes on 3rd place in the conference less than 2 weeks ago, only to drift lifelessly in to 8th place without a whimper. Some are satisfied with 8th, and more power to them for it. Others aren’t. We have to live with each other’s viewpoints, or employ the unfollow button (or any other form of avoidance that is available to everyone).

Solutions?

Today, there aren’t any outside of the Habs locker room. This is the team that will enter the playoffs (so indicates this site). The coach is the guy that will rubber stamp the game plan. The players will have to deliver, stifling system be damned, or hit the links early. The solutions lie in the room. That’s why I won’t hit the panic button.

Looking ahead to next season, it is in my view imperative that if he isn’t going to be replaced by a more progressive-thinking coach, somebody needs to convince Jacques Martin to loosen the reigns and allow his offensively-minded players to explore and maximize their talents. It’s been proven that his system sacrifices offense in the name of defense. With a goalie like Carey Price, you can afford to open things up. The Canadiens also desperately need more size up front. Even with a system that focuses on speed, the small forwards would skate themselves to death trying to go around much bigger defensemen before long. They also need size in order to penetrate opposing defenses to make life miserable for the other goalie. It goes without saying that they also need somebody with that nasty demeanor, too. This means that a player or two from the current top 6 is likely going to have to leave to make room. That’s a post for another day. Martin must also improve his in-game management skills. Put players in positions to succeed. Let Halpern, a league leader in faceoffs, take faceoffs whenever possible. Use Subban on the powerplay as often as possible. Use timeouts appropriately. Make discipline a priority. Show some emotion once in a blue moon!

Injuries will always be an issue. That’s not going to go away for anyone, so the Habs need more depth to replace battered bodies when they can’t play. With all due respect to guys like Halpern and Moen, they aren’t top-6 players any day of the week, on any team in the league. The Canadiens are certainly heading in the right direction in terms of depth, but they aren’t there yet.

Listening to call in shows, and reading fans on twitter, it’s as if the sky has already fallen for some. Others simply shrug and wait for mid-April. Again, it’s all good, but for everyone’s sake we all need a thicker skin at this time of year.

Smoke Them Out

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Ahh there’s nothing like a once-in-a-lifetime goal drought to isolate the two poles in Habs land.

On one side, there’s the rabble rousers who resort to the trade everyone, fire everyone rhetoric. On the other side, there are the kumbaya types that don’t see any reason to panic; being outscored 12-0 over 3 important games is no different than being outscored 12-9 in those 3 same games. A loss is a loss is a loss, after all.

The rioters are expecting hellfire and brimstone to fall at any moment now, while the calm, zen-like members of Habs Nations look back to last season as proof that anything can and will happen.

The crazies are willing to throw everyone under the tank treads for lack of results – blow the whole thing up (again!); the peace & love crowd cite injuries as the reason for poor performances and promise a better showing in the playoffs.

My take?

Let’s start with the coach and get him out of the way. Anyone who has spent any time here knows that I’m not a fan of Jacques Martin’s system, nor a fan of his monotone approach. Never have been, not since he took over as coach. I hear he’s been vocal, nasty and angry during some practices throughout the year, but it would be nice for some of that ire to be directed at the officials once in a while. I get the feeling that the Coach does not even care to give the perception that he is publicly willing to stand up for his team. Does he deserve to be fired? No, not today he doesn’t…or more aptly put, firing him today would be counterproductive, as a massive shitstorm of controversy would swarm and overwhelm the team. The Habs organization has made its bed with this staff, and we’ll have to live with it for now. No coach has made it through 4 full seasons as head coach in Montreal since the late Pat Burns about 20 years ago, so chances are that Martin is closer to the end of his tenure than to the beginning. Injuries aren’t the reason why his passive system has been in use for so long; he’s employed it since taking over the job (despite saying that he would install a speed game based on puck possession). I had gotten off of his case recently, as I had rationalized that as players drop, the system can make lesser replacement players productive in a very simple way. But once the real talent comes back in to the mix, the system stifles, as offensively minded players struggle to think defense first. I feel that a coach – one man plus his staff – ought to adjust to the strengths of his 20+ players rather than force those players to swallow a system that doesn’t suit them. Simply put – the coach does not adapt. It’s one size fits all, take it or leave it.

As for the players? I think it’s fair to say that they’ve under delivered, with the exception of Carey Price, PK Subban and perhaps Andrei Kostitsyn. Others like Mathieu Darche, Hal Gill, David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty and Alex Auld have all made valuable contributions to the team (and why some of those names creep up in discussions for the Jacques Beauchamp award for unsung hero), but either haven’t been around long enough to be part of the core or don’t have the responsibility to carry the heaviest of loads. Unfortunately the players that have had the worst seasons are the ones paid the most money to produce. Whehter they’re playing hurt, or been overused, you have no choice but to take them at their word: when they lace up their skates to hit the ice, they are doing so with an implicit agreement that they are healthy enough to play and produce. By suiting up, they themselves eliminate the injury excuse.

When you play in a system that emphasizes defense, any reduction in offense is going to have a major effect at some point. As fellow blogger HabsWatch points out, when it comes to playoff success it is indeed offense that wins, not defense, as is the popular belief (I highly recommend reading both part one and part two if you have not yet done so). While its easy to blame the lack of offense (Habs rank 24th in the league in goals per game) on the Coach, the truth is that not even Coach Martin wants this little offensive production to work with, and that’s where accountability to the players comes in. That the Canadiens are still in a tie for 6th place, and a few points ahead of last year’s pace can almost be entirely attributed to Carey Price, who has earned a star in 25 of his 34 wins (12 1st star selections, 8 2nd star selections, 5 3rd star selections). Just call him Mr. Spackle. What other conclusion can one arrive at? As Rick at All Habs points out, it is the responsibility of the Coach to create the conditions for success. No player among the top 6 is delivering a good return on their significant salary. Don’t look to injuries to try and deflect all criticism of Martin; the Canadiens are 17th in the league in man-games lost. Yes, yes quality over quantity…but again, as Rick points out:

Martin-apologists claim that coaches of teams who experience injuries, all revert to playing a more defensive game. Statistics don’t support this argument. Of the top five teams in the league in terms of goals scored, four of them have lost more man-games to injury than the Canadiens.

We can argue until we are blue in the face over relative terms of talent missing from rosters but there’s no question – based on statistics – that the Canadiens don’t have it as bad as we think when it comes to injuries, and that they must adopt a defensive system as losses pile up.

All told, responsibility is shared from the Coach, down through the players on the bench. Whenever the season ends, blame (isn’t that a nasty word?) will be shared throughout the team. The big question is what will happen in the off-season to rectify the issues?

Peering in to my sometimes right, often wrong crystal ball, there’s a couple ways this season plays out.

1- The Canadiens make the playoffs, but get trounced by a much stronger opponent somewhere along the way. The angry mob resumes their act on the call in shows and on twitter, while the other side divorces themselves from that segment, saying that the frustrated, emotionally compromised vocal ones are not “true” fans. They claim that the team that has too many bobos and too many tired bodies to make a dent in the playoff picture…they say that they are proud of their team just for getting there considering the injuries (again, never mind the fact that 16 other teams – more than half the league – have it worse than the Habs. It also can’t be ignored that 7 other playoff teams have had more injury trouble than the Canadiens). These arguments hold some validity and merit. In my humble view it also gives a free pass to a team that doesn’t quite have its act together.

2- The Canadiens make the playoffs, and lightning strikes in the same place again. Cinderella descends on Montreal again and douses the angry mob with cold water. They fall in line, sing ‘olé’, loot stores and burn police cars, while the do-gooders do the Balky dance of joy, thumbing their noses at those who were ever worried or angry in the first place. Staking out the high ground, so to speak.

Despite my opposition to the chosen style of play, and despite my reluctance to swallow the excuse of injuries, I am not hitting the panic button – nor will I hit the panic button, even if the Canadiens get shut out in each of their 6 final regular season games. The panic button is something to be pushed when desperate solutions are needed. The fact is that there is no trade, signing or firing that can be done at this point that will vault the Habs in to being a Cup contender. The key to the Canadiens success lies where it always has: in the dressing room. This group of players will need to figure out how to score and how to win again. With 6 games left, there’s still time for David to refocus and find the confidence necessary to stand up to Goliath. The Canadiens haven’t forgotten how to play hockey in the past week. They will win again, and they almost certainly will get on the board tonight vs the Thrashers.

The world is not coming to an end. As we should have learned last year, there is always a reason to have faith, but we should also recognize that lightning typically doesn’t strike in the same place twice. Despite how the two poles behave, the true believing eternal optimists are to be envied for the ability to roll with the punches and enjoy the ride wherever it goes. On the flip side, it is possible to have faith, while looking closely at the statistics with open mind and go against the grain of popular opinion. It doesn’t necessarily make one uneducated or a bandwagon jumper to voice concern or shine a light on some of the ugly truths.

Bouncing Back

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It seems as though there’s no obstacle too big for this undersized Habs team. Dating back to last year’s amazing playoff run, and after suffering through a staggering amount of injuries to key players this year, you’d think the Habs would eventually run out of magic. But they continue to not only hang around in games, they continue to win at a very high clip. At some point, it stops being magic, and starts becoming identity. While we wouldn’t want to tempt fate and see what happens if Price were to be injured, or if Subban were felled, considering how they manage to find ways to win, you wonder just how far they’d fall, or if they’d fall at all.

Without Plekanec, Halpern, Gill, and a litany of others in the infirmary, Habs nation couldn’t be blamed if they thought the end was nigh after Friday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rangers. Nobody looked good in that match, including Habs (and perhaps league) MVP Carey Price. All we fans could do is shrug in resignation…what else could the Habs have done? Sure, injuries and fatigue are no excuse in today’s NHL, but at some point, you need to call a spade a spade, right? The Habs have relied so heavily on the Bulldogs organization to keep filling the roster that Hamilton is now in danger of sliding out of the playoff picture, where once they were gliding along comfortably. When does the camel’s back break? Apparently not any time soon. Fast forward 48 hours, and the Habs would take the same team that was trounced in New York and proceed to hang 8 goals around the Wild’s neck. Go figure.

The Habs keep coming. They fill holes, and when they fall behind they don’t quit. They rebound from losses very quickly. All of this speaks to the character, guts and yes, coaching of the team. Guys like Gionta, Gill, Hamrlik, Kostitsyn and many others keep the team aloft while Price provides Hart-trophy-caliber goaltending. Meanwhile, behind the Habs bench, a frequent target of my ire has to be given much credit. Jacques Martin may not be the type of coach that makes a good team great, but he is the type of coach that can make a depleted team competitive, and keep them that way over the course of a long season. You can read more on that by Steve here. While my frustration with Martin has been that his strict system prevents his team from maximizing their skills, one has to wonder what happens when a progressive, aggressive coach loses the lynchpins of his team. Mike Babcock and Dan Bylsma immediately spring to mind as guys who thrive in almost any scenario, but there are only so many Babcocks and Bylsmas out there, and that’s precisely the reason why Pittsburgh extended this Jack Adams candidate (and winner in this blogger’s opinion) for another 3 seasons. Nevertheless, the Canadiens have a good teacher in Jacques Martin, which is a good consolation at a time like this. With any luck, he’s also in the middle of shedding the dubious mantle of being a guy who doesn’t develop youth properly. Looking up and down the Habs roster, it doesn’t take a genius to see that the kids are contributing more than their fair share to the Canadiens’ recent success. Pacioretty, Eller, Subban, Desharnais, Weber and now White are all contributing to the Habs success in a big way on a nightly basis. If Martin is going to get the flames when he bungles youth management, he needs to be praised when they play well.

Martin may not be the guy with the intangibles of creativity, and adaptability that are so essential in the playoffs, but if not for his dull, boring system, the Canadiens are likely not where they are today. While Price’s spectacular play is far and away the biggest reason why the Habs are 1 point behind the Bruins with 10 games to go, “the system” is the second reason. I’m ready for an appetizer of crow, as I’ve spent a lot of time hammering Martin over the past two seasons. Results count in this league. Everyone is accountable for their results, and people should be praised and reprimanded appropriately. He’s still not “my guy”, and I would still like to see him replaced with a more progressive coach before his 4 year contract expires, but for now, the Canadiens are winning and that shouldn’t be tampered with. Should the Canadiens repeat last season’s playoff success, I’ll be ready for the main course of crow.

There’s a lot to like about this Habs team. An awful lot. While fans of other teams may not see it that way, and may accuse the Habs of being a team that relies on underhanded stick work to defend themselves instead of doing things the “honourable way”, we know better. The Canadiens were a soft, easy team to play against for too long. Opposing teams used to love coming to Montreal to play. The atmosphere was great, and quite often the visitors left with 2 points in the bank and basked in Montreal’s nightlife afterwards. We don’t hear that as much any more. Now the Habs are developing some top-end skill, they have elite goaltending, and they’re becoming difficult to play against. This may irritate other teams and their fans who had become accustomed to seeing the Habs retreat in the face of adversity, but what this tells me is that the Canadiens are very much heading in the right direction.

Now, if only the Alaskan Albatross would get his act together.

Mission: Impossible

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So the Canadiens have now lost 6 of 7 games, with another one coming up against the league’s best team in Vancouver. Losing 7 of 8 is a distinct possibility. A distinct probability given the way they’re playing lately. The timing couldn’t be worse with the trade deadline about a week away. Now there’s a sizeable portion of Habs fans thinking that Pierre Gauthier absolutely must to do something to improve this team. I can’t put up much of an argument, because the Canadiens do need serious upgrades, but what can he be expected to do with the assets he has, and considering the state of the team on the ice? Not one, or two, or even three trades would fix all that ails the good ship Canadien. Besides – and this may be a well guarded secret that I’m about to expose – other General Managers around the league have cable TV (and satellite, too!), cell phones, and perhaps most shocking of all – internet access! Given all those top-secret tools, the rest of the league can effectively eavesdrop on the Habs and figure out just what the Habs troubles are. They also know what expectations are in Montreal, and can squeeze Gauthier even harder. Here’s another secret: there isn’t a General Manager out there who wants to help the Canadiens get better. They know the Canadiens are in dire straits, and they’re sitting back waiting for Gauthier to talk turkey with them. Within seconds they will have Gauthier over a barrel because they know he’s in dire straits. They probably wouldn’t know if they didn’t have all of those high tech gadgets like TV and internet. Damn them! This is precisely why Gauthier needs to disconnect and restrain himself. Any General Manager will be all too happy to pluck away the Canadiens best remaining assets to assist Gauthier in plugging just enough holes to make the playoffs.
If Gauthier is not planning on making a huge splash that helps shape the core of the team for the foreseeable future, then he may as well take a vacation. Just so that we’re clear, any moves that will affect the core of this team for the future will cost Gauthier assets that already represent the present and future: Pacioretty, Subban, and high-end draft picks. Are you ready to part with them? I thought not. And if you are, I’m glad you aren’t the General Manager. Andrei Kostitsyn, as the most moveable among the top-6 forwards will not fetch a productive power forward in return. And no, packaging Kostitsyn with a 3rd round draft pick isn’t a clever way to pry Rick Nash out of Columbus. “Sweetening the pot” with Yannick Weber or Lars Eller blows you like a stiff breeze in to “poor asset management” territory. Face it, the Canadiens are now living through the bumps in the road that come from poor drafting, injuries galore, and unproductive forwards with gigantic contracts. Father Time is the only one that can fix this, and only if he’s joined on the ride by better drafting, better player development, better coaching, and players that do what they’re paid to do.
The trade deadline is not the place where you transform yourself from bubble team to an intimidating, high-powered, well-oiled machine. That’s never been the intention of the trade deadline, nor will it ever be. The trade deadline is for teams that want to add the last pieces to what they believe is a Stanley Cup puzzle (see: Bruins, Boston). Many Habs fans are pulling their hair out because a hated rival continues to aggressively load up for their shot at glory. The Flyers are also looking primed for their swing at the fence. But guess what? Only one of those loaded teams will get the chance to play for the Cup, let alone win it. To do that, they still need to beat the Western Conference Champ, which is no guarantee either. I suppose some of you will say “but at least they’re trying while Gauthier does nothing”. If viewed in a vacuum, you’re right. But what you aren’t taking in to consideration is the fact that the Bruins and Flyers built slowly through the draft and have made shrewd signings over the years. They are in a position to make this final push for the Cup. The Canadiens aren’t there yet. Regardless, now you want the Canadiens to make a bunch of trades to keep up with the Flyers and Bruins at the top of the East? Sorry, I’m not buying it. There’s nothing Gauthier can do, or should do right now to try and keep up with the Joneses. With the system Jacques Martin has in place, any big-name acquisition is not likely to have the desired effect anyway. If you want real, lasting change for the Habs your best option is to wait for a regime change. Martin is still basking in the glow of last year’s run and probably has immunity for the foreseeable future, especially with his buddy calling the shots. A good place to start would be to have the guy who Bruce Boudreau called “one of the smartest coaches in the league” to alter his philosophy. Stop relying on power plays and goaltending. Implement a system that sees the forwards forecheck hard and keep the puck in the opponent’s end. Force them to chase the Canadiens speedy forwards.
Gauthier should not make moves at the deadline to puck up short-term fixes at the cost of the future. Instead, his best investment is a set of “jaws of life” to pry Martin’s philosophy out of the pre-lockout era.

The Unseen Value of Josh Gorges

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On January 10th, 1,700km away from the friendly confines of the Bell Center, Josh Gorges was undergoing a procedure that by all rights should have taken place years ago. His damaged ACL gave up on him on Boxing Day, forcing the now ex-Iron Man of the Habs to end his consecutive games played streak at 150. That’s a far cry from Doug Jarvis’ all-time mark of 962 consecutive games played, but it is remarkable when you consider the events of February 10, 2010.

That night, as the first period was nearing and end, the visiting Capitals were pressing for a late power play goal. After a Glen Metropolit turnover, Caps defenseman Mike Green had a golden opportunity, and he wasted no time in unloading a howitzer towards Carey Price. Gorges, in the only way he knows how to play, instinctively goes down to block the shot. Shot blocking, like a dangle, saucer pass, or hip check is a skill that needs to be learned to perfect. Except nobody likes to practice getting hit with speeding frozen rubber. In an instant, Gorges’ instincts saw him blocking the shot…with his head.

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The photographic evidence says it all: speed kills. Gorges, obviously was ok, but his helmet wore the scar like a badge of honor.

The cross-hatch design on the side of the puck was visible on the side of the helmet, indicating just how lucky he was to not get the shot any lower than he did. A puck in the neck is not something to look forward to, just ask Trent McCleary.

As Gorges lay motionless on the ice, his good friend Carey Price immediately calls for help, and Pierre McGuire’s urgency is clearly palpable.

Most watching that night, myself included thought that they had seen the last of Gorges for a while. A concussion was all but guaranteed, and who knew how long it would take for the baseline tests to permit Gorges to get back to work?

I remember listing to the local sports radio station the next day when it was announced that Josh Gorges was not only ok, but was the first person on the ice for practice.

I’m not sure if Josh Gorges was watching the game in Buffalo on Tuesday night, but if he wasn’t there in person his spirit has certainly infiltrated the team’s ranks.

The talk of the week has mostly surrounded P.K. Subban, for mostly trivial reasons, but the real story of the week was the incredibly bizarre first period in Buffalo’s HSBC arena. Mike Cammalleri, Jeff Halpern and Max Pacioretty all went down with seemingly significant injuries. As it turns out, Cammalleri’s was the only one to have caused damage enough to merit time on the long term injury list. But let’s spend a moment with young forward Max Pacioretty. The winger took a slapshot to the ribs, off the stick of new Hab James Wisniewski. At first it looked like he’d shake it off on the bench, but within seconds he was down in a heap near the boards, and it was clear as day that he was in a great deal of pain. Soon after, news broke that he had left the arena on a stretcher with IV attached, Habs Nation was visibly shaken. The outcome of the game had become a little bit less important as people wondered if he had some serious internal damage.

The Canadiens went on to lose that game 2-1 in overtime, but not after a battle that had every Habs fan proud of the players left standing for the way they competed.

Then, the waiting started. What is wrong with Max (among the other wounded)? While post-game shows and social media channels kept the fans in touch, word came through that Pacioretty was indeed well enough to take the charter flight home. Relief echoed through the tweets and calls, but surely there was still some damage done, and Pacioretty would be lost to the club with some broken ribs. As luck, if you can call it that, would have it, Pacioretty was diagnosed with some badly bruised ribs. Painful to the nth degree, but it’s possible that a player with a high enough pain threshold can suck it up and play through the discomfort. Still, some time off would be on the horizon, right? Nobody with any common sense would have blamed him if he did opt to rest for a few days.

It was again with a great deal of surprise that, when listening to the various reports and tweets on Thursday, it was made known that Pacioretty had taken to the ice for practice, just two days after what most, if not everyone believed would be the last of him for the foreseeable future.

As the Habs prepare for their game in Ottawa tonight, it’s still not known if Pacioretty will play, or if call-up Ryan White will take his place. That decision will be made closer to game time, but the mere fact that Pacioretty is with the team speaks volumes about his character.

There’s no doubt in the mind of this blogger, that as Pierre Gauthier mulls over whether or not to offer Josh Gorges a new contract, or how much to offer him, that he should remind himself that leadership, dedication and character are priceless intangibles that permeate a team. With these immeasurable traits, he sets standards for others on the team to follow. He’s a guy who has been around long enough to understand the challenges of a long NHL season, but still young enough that he can continue to have impacts on young players such as Pacioretty. While we can’t say for certain that Pacioretty would not have been back on the ice so soon if not for Gorges (after all, Pacioretty did play through a painful collarbone injury last season), we do know that he is upholding the standard that Josh Gorges set last season when he shook off the Mike Green knockout shot.

Getting to Know Alex Auld

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He’s big. He’s bald. He’s Alex…bored?

Four starts.

Five appearances.

In 41 games played.

Yeah, I’d be bored, too.

I’m sure he knew what he was in for when he signed on the dotted line, but I’m not sure he expected to see this little ice time. Can we blame Jacques Martin though? No disrespect to Alex Auld, but the Habs’ fortunes lie with the goalie with the thick head of hair. We all know the story to here. Price started October and November hot as Georgia asphalt, only to cool down in December and at the start of 2011. The first month of 2011 has seen him play a poor game against Atlanta, and finally rebounding with a strong game against the Penguins. At the rate at which he’s starting games, he’ll start about 74 times. I know he’s only 23, and that Bob Gainey called him a thoroughbred, but 74 starts in a single regular season is stupid. Things don’t look to change any time soon though; The Canadiens face the Bruins, Rangers, Penguins, Rangers, Flames, Sabres, Senators, Ducks and finish up the month with another tilt with the Flyers. Price figures to start the majority of those games as Martin ices his best team to regain points lost in December. If Price is to get any form of breather before this season wears him out, the Canadiens will have to have success throughout January, despite the mounting injuries. Why? Because February looks like the time when Alex Auld may be able to step in and relieve Price of some of the heavy load.

February, already a short month, will see the Habs play 13 games, or roughly once every second night. There are three sets of back-to-back games, one set of three games in four nights, and one stretch of four games in seven nights. If there’s a silver lining, it’s a faint one: while there are no longer easy nights in the NHL, the Canadiens’ opponents line up as such: Capitals, Panthers, Rangers, Devils, Bruins, Islanders, Leafs, Sabres, Oilers, Flames, Canucks (the latter three during the dreaded Western swing), before finishing up the month with home games against the Leafs and Hurricanes. With a number of “weaker” opponents on the slate, February could be the window of opportunity for Alex Auld to shoulder some of the load while Price hopefully gets a break or three leading in to the stretch run. March promises to be a  difficult month, as teams play desperation hockey, or assume the spoiler role. The Habs as a potential (probable?) bubble team don’t want to be caught in the position of having to play playoff hockey again just to qualify for the post-season.

Time will tell, but we know that Coach Martin isn’t one to innovate and improvise on the fly. If he does any planning in advance, he’d be smart to look at February as an opportunity to give his meal ticket a chance to catch his breath while not sacrificing his team’s slot in the standings. But first things first – get the Canadiens back on track in January!