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Habs Don’t Need A Rebuild

Let’s all take a deep breath, or twenty.

Do the the Habs stink? You bet they do. Tough to admit, especially when they are “only 3 points out of a playoff spot” but you are what your record says you are, so yes – right now, the Habs stink. How did they get to this damp and sullen place so quickly? In this blogger’s view, two solid years of poor strategic coaching, coupled with non-existent tactical coaching, questionable development of youth and inept managerial moves have crippled this team. Ownership has a good amount of stink on it as well for placing blind faith in a team that was hired to keep corrupted and brainwashed masses content.

The team was never retooled properly following the collapse and subsequent mass exodus of 2009. Jacques Martin was brought in to breathe new life in to the team, as well as to bring a level of professionalism behind the bench that had been missing for years. Surely he had a hand in selecting the players that they eventually traded for, and signed during that summer’s free agency period. Why on God’s green earth they opted for small, offensive-minded players, we will never know. Sure, they’re loveable, respectable, classy guys, which makes trying to be objective about them much more difficult, but their contributions – or lack thereof speak for themselves. The style of play that was promised by Jacques Martin was never delivered – not even close. Instead, he enforced the exact opposite style of play that would have maxed out the players’ talents.  What’s the French translation for ‘appeasement’? The ruse worked for a while…or did it? I think we can all agree that goaltending saved not just the team’s bacon, but the entire barn. Whether Carey Price since the start of last year, or Halak two seasons ago, the trip to the Conference Finals was enchanting, but it was a fairy tale. An anomaly. The road taken was unsustainable. When a game plan calls for a goaltender to stop 40-50 shots per night, and asks defensemen to block almost as many, with the desired end result being a 2-1 victory, it’s only a matter of time before the trap door that you voluntarily stood on top of opens wide. Sidney Crosby’s bewilderment at the conclusion of game 7 spoke for nearly everyone, much of Habsland included.

Last year the team had its ups and downs, eventually bowing out in the first round to the Bruins in seven games. Many saw that as some sort of accomplishment, considering the “injuries”. Yawn. News flash! there are no moral victories in the playoffs. None. There never were, and there never will be. Talk of “tomorrow’s another day” is for the regular season. The playoffs, on the other hand are merciless and not for the faint of heart. Any talk otherwise stems from apologists, exonerators and excuse makers. Pass me the barf bag. The cracks in the foundation were deep and visible, but covered up with Carey Price’s excellence. That Carey Price is even in a Habs sweater is a stroke of luck.

Fast forward to this season, and the slow slide to oblivion accelerated to avalanche speed, and not even Price’s continued fine play could stop it. Jacques Martin quickly lost the pulse of his team, which is not surprising given how he stamped out any semblance of energy and passion – what was left to measure when you don’t communicate with your players? He soon ran out of places to hide, kids to throw under the bus and people to blame other than himself by the time the axe fell. Last Saturday ended what was an infernally long tenure that really wasn’t that long at all; it just felt that way, which is a damning testament to the type of stodgy, stale, flaccid hockey that Jacques Martin had installed. It was, and still is boring, which speaks to the damage that he has done, and that Randy Cunneyworth has been tasked with fixing. Nothing is worse than failing, sleep-inducing hockey, especially when you’re one of the priciest tickets in the league. Nothing. Near the end, Jacques Martin said that it was less about entertaining the fans. Way to keep up with the times, Coach.

Now, as Randy Cunneyworth struggles to pump out the water, he seems as powerless as a nine volt battery trying to power a nuclear submarine. It isn’t his fault; he’s been set up for failure by ownership and management, and the jackals in the French media have already begun gnawing at the carcass before it has even flatlined. Dead man walking.

The result is a team in disarray, or at least the semblance of disarray. There are still some good players on this team: Cole, Pacioretty, Gionta, Plekanec, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are all eminently capable of 25 goals each, but only one or two of those guys will hit that number…three would be stretching it. As the team spirals to 12th place and poised to sink even lower, fans are predictably calling for a tank & rebuild in the same vein as Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, and other teams that reaped all-star talent at the draft table by being appallingly bad for many years.

As tempting as it may be to dream of a lottery draft pick, it’s not needed for this iteration of the team. Serious tweaking? Absolutely. Blowing it up? Stop it. While this season is on the verge of being lost, (if it wasn’t lost in October) there is plenty of hope for 2012-13, provided Geoff Molson gets his priorities straight and stares down those that insist that they have a say in running the team.

Re-signing Price, Subban and Gorges are no-brainer decisions. Bringing back Andrei Kostitsyn isn’t quite a no-brainer, but it’s damn close. Unless he can fetch a king’s ransom in return, he should be retained, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t trust Gauthier to fetch that kingly ransom. Thanks to Gauthier’s panic moves designed to save his, and Jacques Martin’s job (bonjour to those who said that a healthy Campoli and Kaberle would fix all that ails the team), he has saddled the team with some contracts that are suffocating the Habs, and will continue to do so until they’re off the books. That being the case, whoever has the title of General Manager in the summer – because it won’t be Pierre Gauthier – should focus on moving Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Kaberle at all costs. Freeing up that kind of scratch and replacing it with the right pieces and coupled with the proper Coaching, will set it back on course in a hurry.

There’s no need to flush out everyone over the age of 27. No need to be voluntary doormats for years to come. No need to waste some of Carey Price’s best years. As long as pillars like Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec, Cole, Eller, Gorges and Gionta are around, there is plenty to play for, and it’s all the more reason to get things right without waving the white flag of failure.The only capitulations that should be made, if the team can’t pull out of this tailspin absolutely and immediately (meaning tonight vs Winnipeg, and no more consolation loser points), is to trade pending UFAs (except Gorges and Kostitsyn) for assets. That’s it.

The recipe, as challenging as it may be to implement, is really quite simple:

1- Get the organizational priorities straight. Winning? Or pandering & political appeasement?
2- Hire the best General Manager money can buy, language be damned.
3- Let him get the best Coach, and ask him to pretty please with a cherry on top become competent in French as quickly as possible.
4- Sign or trade for players that match the new Coach’s style and fill the team’s gaps.
5- Enjoy hockey again.

Now, if only Geoff Molson can summon the courage to stomp out the filthy agenda-driven rats in the Francophone media and political arena who have infested and warped the views of Habs fans all over Quebec, things might get moving in the right direction. These clowns have once again made the Canadiens a laughing stock, not only in hockey circles, but in global news. It’s not because “outsiders don’t understand”. It’s because it’s farcical that a segment of Quebecers carry the sense of entitlement that allows them to believe that they control the team. The legacy of the Canadiens hangs from the rafters of the Bell Center, and it was built by French AND English. The legacy doesn’t exist anywhere else. It’s a sport. You want to make a statement about your culture and language? Do it through other channels and stay out of the hockey rink. People and organizations trying to shape the Canadiens to reflect their narrow-minded, pig-headed views have no place in the business of sport.

The ball is in your court, Mr. Molson.

2010-2011 Habs: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

It’s always a difficult task to try and segment a 7-month long season in to 3 distinct buckets, as the memories all tend to fade and fall victim to what romanticism and to what feels most comfortable. The Habs have been a veritable roller coaster for two full seasons now…and what a roller coaster it is. Dizzying heights and stomach-churning drops galore. As strange as it is, would the highs feel as good as they do if not for the abyssmal depths that this team sunk to at times? Probably not.

Let’s start from the bottom of the barrel and finish on a high, shall we?

The Ugly

The Pacioretty/Chara incident. This will certainly be one of the infamous moments in Habs history, for all the wrong reasons. Everyone has their own personal opinion on whether or not Chara intended to severely injure Pacioretty, but the fact will always be that Pacioretty came within fractions of an inch from losing his career, his ability to walk, or perhaps even worse. That he luckily escaped severe handicap is a blessing, but it also fuels the knuckle-draggers who think the whole thing was overblown. Pacioretty was out cold on the ice – that by definition is a severe concussion. That he seemed to avoid post-concussion symptoms is what has Dr. Recchi, Boston media, and Bruins fans in such a confused tizzy. Any way you slice it, this was a horrific incident that touched off a frenzy in Montreal unseen in decades. Predictably, the rest of the hockey world points and laughs. Thankfully Pacioretty will be back next year and looking to pick up where he left off.

Injuries to Markov and Gorges. Why, oh why can’t the Habs stay in one piece for one year? If you spend any time reading here, you know me as somebody that doesn’t buy the injuries as an excuse for underachieving, or failure. Everyone suffers from injuries, and the Habs were somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of man-games lost to injury. Yeah, yeah, the whole quality vs quantity argument. Given the importance of Markov and Gorges to the team, it seems grossly unfair that both would be shelved for many months. Will either be back next season? Time will tell, but I would like to see them both return, for the right price of course.

Scott Gomez. No breakdown of the Habs season would be complete without looking at Gomez’ horrific season. After his putrid start, his supporters said that he’s a second half player. When he didn’t get going after the all star break, his supporters entrenched themselves deeper and said he was a playoff performer and we should be patient. When all is said and done, he never really got going at all. 38 points, -15. Underwhelming playoff performance aside from a strong first game. His last goal would come in early February, while all other facets of his game tumbled to appaling levels. The Canadiens can’t afford another season like that from a guy who eats such a large chunk of cap space. It will be tough to move him in any scenario, but its safe to say that his nightmarish season could have single-handedly cost the Habs a playoff spot if not for Carey Price’s brilliance.

Booing Carey Price. What’s the matter with the people who booed Carey Price – in the preseason no less? The real work hadn’t yet begun and those who sleep in Halak jammies were already out with their pitchforks. Needless to say, within weeks they no longer had any credibility, as Price forcibly duct taped every single one of the haters mouths shut. Booing the home team is never smart. Singling out a young player who needed support more than scorn was borderline criminal. In the end, all Price needed was confidence and he’d take care of the rest. On many nights, he was left on his own and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. It’s what the greats do, and Carey Price is already great. When it’s all said and done, his name will not look out of place with the likes of Plante, Vezina, Roy, and Dryden.

The rivalry with Boston. For the better part of a century, the Habs and Bruins built one of the greatest rivalries in sports. In 2011, however, it went from an on-ice rivalry, to outright vitriolic hate in all directions. The players don’t like one another, but the fans and media have helped propel this rivalry to very nasty, unfriendly places. There’s no need to rehash it all, as it all cuts so close to the bone but it’s safe to say that this rivalry, which had cooled slightly in recent years, even with several playoff matchups has been renewed. We hope that it stays on the ice and produces exciting hockey, but I somehow doubt that. Winning with grace has eluded certain fanbases and the teams they follow.

The Bad

Opening round loss to the Bruins. After the tumultuous season that the Habs suffered at the hands of the Bruins (despite winning 4 of 6 games), roaring out to a 2-0 series lead had everyone thinking about the 2010 playoffs and another Cinderella run. Surely, with a 0-26 record when falling behind by two games, the Bruins were toast, right? Sadly for Habs fans, the Bruins fought back, broke through the barrier that was so successful last year for Montreal and eventually won the series. In seven games. In overtime. It doesn’t get worse than that for Habs fans who were around when the Canadiens hadn’t lost to the Bruins in the playoffs for 40 years. Yes, 40 years.

Inability to score at even strength – ‘The System’. Listening to the season ending post-mortem press conference, Jacques Martin would have you believe that his puck possession system in fully in place, and that the Habs do not struggle to score goals. Those paying attention know that he is simply deflecting, avoiding and outright lying about the type of hockey he has his team playing. It was tough to argue with him as the Habs hobbled through the season and still hung on to 6th place in the East. But again, when looking at all of the stats and evidence, the real system is Carey Price. Without 70+ games of terrific hockey from the Habs netminder, it would have been lights out after the regular season. It’s dangerous to rely solely on special teams and goaltending, and hopefully everyone now realizes that.

Underachieving forwards. All 6 of the top forwards had sub-par years. Starting with the aforementioned Gomez, but filtering down to each and every one of Plekanec, Gionta, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri and whoever the 6th forward was on any given day. None had what I’d call a strong year. Aside from Gomez’ putrid performance, the others all had decent, but underwhelming performances. We’ll never know how Pacioretty would have affected things if not for his head-first dive in to a stanchion, but it’s clear – the system prevents the Habs best offensive talents from reaching their potential. We’ve long forgotten what it’s like to have a forward finish among the league leaders in terms of production, and as long as the defense-first system lives, the Habs will struggle to score – regardless of the PR spin the coach and management decides to sell us, and regardless of what talent may be lured to town.

Moving Ryan O’Byrne, then trading to acquire more defense. This is a sticky one. The coach didn’t trust O’Byrne, which is his prerogative. I have to admit that I didn’t have much faith in O’Byrne, either, but I did want him in the lineup on a more consistent basis so that he could develop the confidence that fans would then absorb by osmosis. The organization didn’t see it that way, and shipped him to Colorado – where he played quite well – for another small prospect forward in Michael Bournival. We can only ponder how management reacted once O’Byrne was no longer available once their defensemen started to drop like flies. Would O’Byrne have drawn back in to the lineup, or would coach Martin continue to select others like Alexandre Picard over him? We’ll never know, but what is certain is that there was no rush to move him as quickly as they did.

Scattered, disorganized, immobile defense. Valiant warriors one and all: Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek, Brent Sopel, Paul Mara. All are guys with guts, and all performed as well as they could. In the end, it was clear that they were asked to do more than they were capable of – whether through lack of skill, or the slow erosion of age, these guys simply couldn’t do the things necessary to win for long enough. Opponents know that if they press on their older, slower bodies, they’ll end up with the puck in the Canadiens zone, and they’ll force these older players to take penalties. And take penalties they did; the Habs were near the summit of the league in terms of minor penalties taken; another blight on ’the system’. It’s tough to score goals when the puck is always in your own end. Individually they all seem like terrific teammates, but in order to get better, some changes will need to be made, and hard decisions taken. It’s hard to do, but teams don’t get better by “being nice”.

Picking on PK. I would have put this in the “ugly” section if PK showed any signs of caring what other think of him outside of his locker room. Instead, Pernell Karl turned the corner at midseason and, given the ice time he received because of injuries to Markov and Gorges, he opened eyes across the league. However, not all eyes are as tolerant as we would like them to be in 2011. Racial slurs became common, and the league feigned horror at the “disrespect” the Habs young rearguard displayed on the ice. What a load of trash. Brad Marchand and Cam Fowler pulled similar stunts to what Subban did this year, and yet received no criticism. Racial undertones aside, PK gets a lot of flack simply because he’s GREAT and still a long way from his full potential. This scares other teams and their fans. Almost all non-Habs fans would admit to wanting him on their team, and this is a testament to PK’s resolve, evolving maturity, and lastly, to Trevor Timmins, who has hit a grand slam by drafting this kid in the second round. For once, it’s awfully nice having a player that everyone else says “how did we miss this guy” about.

The Failure of Pouliot. Benny, Benny, Benny. Last year I referred to you as Jimmy Olsen on a team of superheroes. You did nothing to change that this year, even though I thought you may be turning a corner at a few points. Have a nice career in some other jersey. I can’t devote any more space to you and your underachieving ways.

The Heritage Classic. Everyone loves an outdoor game, right? The mystique, the roots of the game, the fresh air. Yeah, sure they do. On this cold February evening, the Habs, decided that being in front of a gigantic, captive North-American audience was the right time to play one of the worst games of the season, being blanked 4-0 to the Calgary Flames at McMahon Stadium. It was a flaccid performance, coming off the heels of an equally putrid loss to the bottom-feeding Oilers.

Departures we hate to see. It hasn’t happened yet, but it certainly appears that Kirk Muller is on his way out of Montreal. What a shame that the Canadiens organization should lose two young coaching talents in Guy Boucher and Kirk Muller in consecutive years. If there’s one argument for Habs brass in keeping Jacques Martin around it’s that if they cut him loose any time soon after losing Boucher and Muller, they’ll be roasted. Other players potentially on their way out include Andrei Markov, Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik and a few others. Some are near and dear to Habs fans, and we’d hate to see them go. In some cases, it’s necessary, but in the case of Kirk Muller you’d hope the Canadiens would do whatever it takes to keep a guy that the players reportedly adore. The fans seem to like him, too.

The Good

A new captain for a new era. After going through an entire season with no captain, the Canadiens decided it was time to name a new one to replace Saku Koivu. Raise your hand if you don’t like Brian Gionta as Captain. Nobody? I thought so. Stoic, heart of a lion, non-stop motor…what’s not to like about Brian Gionta? Nothing, that’s what.

Price’s rebirth. Carey Price had been, until this season started, a very controversial figure. How refreshing it is then, that under more pressure than ANY player in the league, Price responds with the type of season he had. There’s a case to be made that he should have been nominated for the Hart Trophy as the league’s MVP. Certainly there is no post-season in Montreal without his consistently solid play. Each and every single Habs fan should be in awe of how he played and conducted himself this year. And General Manager Gauthier should lock him up for a very, very long time as soon as possible. Don’t wait until Price increases his value even higher.

Subban’s emergence. He’s already been mentioned, but how amazing was PK Subban this season? He’s clearly the best rookie defenseman the Habs have had since the mid-80′s, and there are whispers that he’s gone and made Andrei Markov expendable. I don’t necessarily believe that, as the sophomore jinx has bitten the best of them, including Tyler Myers and Drew Doughty. Subban could easily have a setback next year, but what is clear is that at 21 years old, Subban is going to be the Canadiens top defenseman in a couple years from now, and will be for a long, long time. As with Price, Gauthier should lock up Subban immediately, before his price tag is elevated with Norris credentials.

Weber shines. Below the radar, and in Subban’s immense shadow lies the solid, versatile Yannick Weber. He may never be a top pairing defenseman, but he can be an effective power play specialist, while not embarassing himself on defense. He also proved that he could play a fourth line role, bringing back images of another Swiss-born, under-the-radar, jack-of-all-trades former Hab in Mark Streit. I believe he’s been underrated all season long and has earned a permanent spot on the blueline.

Pacioretty’s promise. Where’s our power forward? How many times had you heard that over the past decade? Safe to say that if you had a dime for every time you heard that from a fan, or member of the media, you’d be living the sweet life out in California’s beatiful San Fernando Valley (hat tip to Dr. Venkman for that beauty). Before being savagely injured, Pacioretty was just entering his own. He was the Habs best forward at the time of his injury, and seemed to be the answer to the gaping hole among the top 6 forwards. When Pacioretty revealed that he would have been ready to face the Capitals should the Habs have beaten Boston, fans sighed in disappointment. So close. On the other hand, he gets a full off-season to stregthen his neck and be absolutely certain that he wasn’t rushing back. Then again, it took a wicked slap shot to the ribs and a trip to the hospital before Pacioretty really heated up in the first place, so who knows, maybe he would have been even better after recovering from his neck problems.

Discovery of Desharnais. Talk about found money! Everyone knew about his skill, and his pal Pacioretty said he was the best center he had ever played with. It didn’t take long for Habs fans to see what he was talking about. Though he’s another small forward on a team of small forwards, I think Claude Julien got it right on when he said that Desharnais looks like he could be another Martin St-Louis. Let’s hope the Canadiens are able to find a permanent and fitting role for this pint-sized dynamo. It will be tough, as the Habs have Gomez, Plekanec and Eller at center already. Eller is ill-suited to play wing, and it would be a shame for Desharnais to toil on the fourth line with all that skill being devoted to a checking role. The answer, as hard as it may be to accomplish, is to somehow move Gomez. As much as I’d like to give him the chance to redeem himself (and this likely will be the path we go down), I’d spit nails if young talent was sacrificed for overpaid underachievers. Young homegrown talent is raring to go, and shouldn’t be stifled or discarded. If Habs management is intent on letting fresh coaching talent walk away, as well as prime prospects in low salary brackets in favour of bloated, stale contracts in Jacques Martin and Scott Gomez, then they should be immediately fired.

BAMF Ryan White. Finally, a player with wheels, and a willingness to get his nose dirty. Every team needs players like Ryan White. When members of the team come out and publicly state that White should have been on the team since the start of the season, that’s a criticism on the coaches and management, who were either asleep at the switch, or ignorant of their team’s needs. Either way, it’s a huge compliment to Ryan White, who, despite not being a heavy weight, finally brings accountability for other teams who feel like they can take liberties on the Habs without having to answer for it.

Koivu 2.0: Enter Lars Eller. Somebody said it on Twitter, and I think it’s totally appropriate (if you know who said it, please let me know). Eller is Koivu in a bigger body. What a dream come true for Habs fans! For a decade we wished that Saku could have been a little bigger and a little more durable. As big as his heart was and still is, he always wore down as the seasons took their inevitable toll. Lars Eller may not have had the numbers to prove it, but he has playmaking skills, skating ability, defensive awareness and size down the middle – one of the Habs missing key ingredients. We would love to see him develop his finish around the net in coming years, but it’s clear to me that the Habs have won the Halak trade hands-down. With Eller in the fold, and a reborn Carey Price, it’s in fact a steal and Gauthier deserves credit, despite what Pierre McGuire’s bitterness will tell you.

Mike Cammalleri - playoff wizard. Two seasons. 26 playoff games. 16 goals. 13 assists. 29 points. Any questions? Many thought that they could throw Cammalleri under the same bus that Gomez found himself under all season. While Gomez apologists tried to tell us that he would produce in the playoffs, and that Cammalleri hadn’t proven anything, we now know better. Cammalleri is a gamer, and brings his best to the post season. While he’s merely average defensively, he’s the Habs go-to guy on offense in the playoffs. He simply gets it done unlike any Hab player in recent years in the post season.

Small package, huge heart. The small forwards may get beaten up, but they simply don’t go away. Time and time again they fought back this season, led by guys who punch much higher than their weight. Captain Gionta certainly leads the way with his fearlessness, and never say die work ethic, but others like Plekanec, Cammalleri and Desharnais showed no fear when it comes to facing adversity. Young players like Eller, Desharnais, Subban, Weber, Pacioretty are soaking in some extremely vital lessons. They see smaller guys working their tails off, and the attitude is infectious. This bodes very well for chemistry and identity of the Habs’ future.

Departures we like to see. Pierre Boivin. Thanks for making the Habs more relevant than they’ve ever been, during their longest Stanley Cup drought in history. Your business acumen and marketing prowess (along with Ray Lalonde) is to be commended. You guys made the Habs a glossy, flashy, only-show-in-town behemoth. Your work has enlivened the Habs for a new generation and has somehow made the Canadiens even more of a religion than they already were. However, your sociological policies have held the Canadiens back where it counts most – on the ice. You honoured the past glory of the franchise to the point of distracting fans to the mediocrity of recent teams. We’re all grateful for what you did in honouring greats like Geoffrion, Robinson, Cournoyer, Savard, Gainey, Roy and others, and we thank you for that. Really, we do. The ceremonies were touching, classy and the gold standard by which all sports teams should aspire to. Good luck in your future endeavors, but I can’t say that I’m sad to see you go.

Mathieu Darche. What more can be said about this guy? Bemoaned by nearly all Habs fans for signing a one-way deal, I was in the minority who thought this was a wise, value-packed signing, and I’m glad that I was proven right. He filled in admirably on the second line when Pacioretty went down, scoring several big goals in areas on the ice where Habs have feared to tread for years. He has to be a tremendous influence on young players who have more skill and upside than Darche, but may lack the work ethic required at the NHL level. Darche spent time all over the lineup, and even spent time in the press box. Without having access to the locker room, I’d bet my last penny that he did everything with a smile on his face.

Triple low-fives. How much fun is the post-victory ritual between Subban and Price?

This post is brought to you by Quality Plus Tickets. If you’re in need of Habs tickets next season, be sure to check them out!

Three Thin Arguments

I’ve managed to stop chuckling barely long enough to bang out another blog post. This time I’m taking aim at three arguments that are currently fan favorites when describing the present-day Habs woes:

  1. Injuries
  2. “They’re still ahead of last year’s pace”
  3. “Look at what happened last year”

Spare me. These are all weak arguments that do nothing more than slather plaster over gaping cracks.

Let’s dismantle the arguments one by one, shall we?

1. Injuries

By now we can all agree that the Canadiens have been the walking wounded this year. Just about every defenseman has been on the shelf…even the guys brought in to replace injured regulars have found their way to the shelf. But we Habs fans tend to look at things with a very narrow lens. When one looks at the full picture, it shows that the Habs are actually in the bottom half of the league when it comes to man-games lost to injuries – that is to say that 16 teams (including 7 playoff teams as of last week) have suffered more man games lost to injuries than the Canadiens have. You can cite the quality over quantity argument if you’d like, but the fact is that Markov and Gorges have both been “replaced” with acquisitions (Wizniewski, Mara, Sopel) and while those 3 likely aren’t quite as good as the other two combined, the drop off isn’t so severe that it should affect the team’s fortunes to any significant degree. Up front, it’s pretty evident that Plekanec, and Cammalleri aren’t themselves, but as I mentioned here, when a player decides to play wounded, he is signing an implicit agreement that he’s good to go, with no excuses. If the player is hurt badly enough to prevent him from being a productive member of the team, stay home. Rest up, and come back when healthy. Having Pacioretty out of the lineup is also a big blow, no doubt. He was the Canadiens most productive forward at the time of his injury, and any time a guy like that is lost, there’s bound to be some pain. However, the loss of Pacioretty does not in any way explain why the Canadiens are 4-7 since losing him, while being badly outplayed in nearly every game over that stretch (the only games in which the Habs looked good, are games in which the opposition was dreadful – Pittsburgh and Minnesota). It also in no way begins to describe the lifeless, emotionless, complacent manner in which the Canadiens have taken to the ice in many games. Are they exhausted? Some guys probably are…in which case we need to ask the coaching staff why some guys were so foolishly overused. Nevertheless, who did the Penguins have to turn to in the absences of Crosby and Malkin?

No matter how you slice it, injuries are not the reason why they’re in such a funk. The Canucks have lost more than a hundred man games above and beyond the Canadiens. While they are certainly deeper offensively, their defensemen have been ravaged WORSE than the Habs all year. This has not prevented the Canucks from not only continuing to play well – but they are running away with the much tougher Western Conference, and will easily win the President’s Trophy as the top poing getting team in the league. They haven’t used injuries as a crutch. What’s that? They play in a weak division? Ok, ok, you got me. Sort of. It is a weak division, but the Canucks have beaten up on everyone all year, regardless where they play. Many teams have sacked up and played on to success - why can’t the Habs? Is it talent? Is it coaching? Uncontrollable circumstances? It’s certainly your right to decide. I simply choose to look at stats, and try to take a bigger look around before making blanket statements.

2. They’re Still Ahead of Last Year’s Pace

Today, the Canadiens sit 5 points ahead of their pace from last season. Is that really relevant? I’m not so sure. Last season, the Canadiens mark of 88 points in 82 games was enough to get them in to the playoffs, but it was the lowest point total for any playoff-bound team since the lockout ended. So if you want to measure this year’s team against a team that had set the bar so very low – more power to you. But let’s continue the charade.

The Habs are up 5 points over last year. Goodie! Again, using a wider lens, here’s how the other seven playoff-bound teams in the Eastern Conference (as of today) stack up in terms of points earned when compared to this point last year:

Philadelphia: +20
Capitals: -13
Bruins: +14
Penguins: +3
Lightning: +21
Canadiens: +5
Sabres: -19
Rangers: +7

Of those teams, only the Capitals and Sabres have had a big drop. Yet most would agree that this year’s Capitals team is much more balanced and well-rounded than last year’s juggernaut. As for the Sabres, well if you’re one of those that leans on injuries as the grand reason behind the struggles, the Sabres can also use that excuse – they sit in 18th in terms of man-games lost to injury, right behind the Canadiens.

Breaking down the numbers further, the average playoff team from this year is 4.75 points ahead of last year’s pace. Also of note is that 4 of them (Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals – 2 division leaders, don’t you know?) have had more injury troubles than Montreal. Can we round up 4.75 to 5? Presto!

So while the Canadiens remain ahead of their pace from last year, it doesn’t make them any better of a team relative to the other playoff teams in the conference.

3. Look at What Happened Last Year

There’s not much that can be said here. The Canadiens surprised everyone with their improbable 7-game upsets over Washington and Pittsburgh. The Canadiens discovered that a suicidal game plan can work – and it did - for a while. Offensively gifted (selfish?) players like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Malkin, Crosby were totally befuddled by their inability to beat Jaroslav Halak. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, it was mostly panic that forced them to shoot from the outside, and they allowed Habs defenders like Hal Gill and Josh Gorges to block a large portion of their shots. Halak, for his part, was unbeatable when he was on, but was awful when he was off. I don’t care what era you’re playing hockey in, when you ask your goalie to stop 40 to 50 shots in the playoffs, against some top players in the world - you’re asking for trouble. When they hit a deep, skilled, big team like the Flyers, they were summarily trounced, being shut out in 3 games of the series.

There’s a well-known adage that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. Hoping for the Habs to get hit again when they go up against the likes of Philly, Boston or Washington may be ok for some, but it doesn’t work for me. Yes, I will be there cheering for the team as hard as I can and willing them to whatever success I’m able to.

But I’m not going to blindly join those who ignore signs of concern, or choose to stay quiet about it since words (of any blogger/journalist/fan/twitterer) are for naught. It doesn’t make one a bandwagon jumper, nor does it make one a bad fan if they choose to shine a light on what they perceive to be some serious issues. Some would rather see nothing but unicorns and ice cream type posts. “Stay positive!” Sorry, that’s not for everyone. Some of us bring a critical eye to the web when it comes to the Habs, and that’s ok. The glass half-full crowd is fine, too. Where the whole house of cards falls apart is when both sides attack each other and resort to personal attacks. It isn’t a sin to expect better from the Habs, who had their eyes on 3rd place in the conference less than 2 weeks ago, only to drift lifelessly in to 8th place without a whimper. Some are satisfied with 8th, and more power to them for it. Others aren’t. We have to live with each other’s viewpoints, or employ the unfollow button (or any other form of avoidance that is available to everyone).

Solutions?

Today, there aren’t any outside of the Habs locker room. This is the team that will enter the playoffs (so indicates this site). The coach is the guy that will rubber stamp the game plan. The players will have to deliver, stifling system be damned, or hit the links early. The solutions lie in the room. That’s why I won’t hit the panic button.

Looking ahead to next season, it is in my view imperative that if he isn’t going to be replaced by a more progressive-thinking coach, somebody needs to convince Jacques Martin to loosen the reigns and allow his offensively-minded players to explore and maximize their talents. It’s been proven that his system sacrifices offense in the name of defense. With a goalie like Carey Price, you can afford to open things up. The Canadiens also desperately need more size up front. Even with a system that focuses on speed, the small forwards would skate themselves to death trying to go around much bigger defensemen before long. They also need size in order to penetrate opposing defenses to make life miserable for the other goalie. It goes without saying that they also need somebody with that nasty demeanor, too. This means that a player or two from the current top 6 is likely going to have to leave to make room. That’s a post for another day. Martin must also improve his in-game management skills. Put players in positions to succeed. Let Halpern, a league leader in faceoffs, take faceoffs whenever possible. Use Subban on the powerplay as often as possible. Use timeouts appropriately. Make discipline a priority. Show some emotion once in a blue moon!

Injuries will always be an issue. That’s not going to go away for anyone, so the Habs need more depth to replace battered bodies when they can’t play. With all due respect to guys like Halpern and Moen, they aren’t top-6 players any day of the week, on any team in the league. The Canadiens are certainly heading in the right direction in terms of depth, but they aren’t there yet.

Listening to call in shows, and reading fans on twitter, it’s as if the sky has already fallen for some. Others simply shrug and wait for mid-April. Again, it’s all good, but for everyone’s sake we all need a thicker skin at this time of year.

Mythbusting

When you follow a team that generates as much discussion and speculation as the Habs, urban legends and outright myths are bound to spring up like dandelions. Two of the most popular myths that have endured for years are that the Canadiens cannot lure superstar free agents to Montreal for reasons relating to media pressure, taxes, political strife, and the fishbowl atmosphere. When former General Manager Bob Gainey signed big names like Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri to long-term contracts, much of the long-held myth died. Other lower tier free agents like Hal Gill, Jaroslav Spacek and Travis Moen also elected to ply their trade in la Belle Province. Tomas Plekanec elected to return to Montreal when he could have likely gone elsewhere for more money. Gainey proved that as long as the dollars are there, the signatures will follow. This doesn’t mean that it will be a cake walk to sign big names in the future, but it’s far cry from the “fat chance” that it was just a few years ago.

The other myth is one that has needed a debunking in the worst way, and that is the long-held belief that once the Canadiens give up on a young player, he goes on to stardom elsewhere in the league. I don’t know where the myth started, but maybe it traces back to the early 90′s when the Canadiens sent John LeClair to Philadelphia. LeClair went on to 50-goal fame with the Flyers, something no Habs fan saw coming, and something that hasn’t been easy to swallow nearly 20 years later. Perhaps some would refer to the deal that sent Chelios to Chicago for an over-the-hill Denis Savard? On the flip side, let’s also recall that youngster Gilbert Dionne, he of 60 career goals with the Canadiens over parts of 5 seasons was sent packing, only to accomplish less than nothing with the duration of his NHL career. If he had scored 2 goals per game in the 27 games he had left in front of him in his NHL career, he would not have matched his career output in Montreal. Eric Desjardins and Mathieu Schneider went on to have terrific careers after playing with the Canadiens (and being contributors to a 24th cup victory, I may add), but its not like the Canadiens “gave up” on those guys. Both played several years in Montreal and were part of deals that were intended to make the Canadiens better. Give to get, as it were.

Today it seems that the consensus among fans is that once the Canadiens trade Andrei Kostitsyn away, he will instantly fulfill his first round draft pick promise and score 30 goals without breaking a sweat. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. If he finds the right fit, he will. If he doesn’t get his head in the game, he won’t. If he does manage to consistently score, it will undoubtedly fuel the fire that says youngsters departing Montreal instantly get better by changing scenery, or escaping the clutches of vile gangster Jabba the Hut Head Coach Jacques Martin.

But let’s take a quick look at the ledger, shall we? Without breaking down every stat and every situation, the Canadiens have let the following “young” players go over the past few years:

  • Michael Ryder
  • Chris Higgins
  • Mike Komisarek
  • Mikhail Grabovski
  • Sergei Kostitsyn
  • Kyle Chipchura
  • Guillaume Latendresse
  • Max Lapierre
  • Matt D’Agostini
  • Ryan McDonagh
  • Jaroslav Halak

It’s not an exhaustive list by any means, and without breaking it down in to minutae, at a glance we can see that of those names, only Belarussians Mikhail Grabovski and Sergei Kostitsyn have Habs fans up in arms today. Micheal Ryder has remained a decent player, but isn’t blowing anyone away in Boston and while Latendresse had some success after his trade last year, he’s been hurt for the vast majority of this season. Matt D’Agostini has posted respectable numbers overall, but he isn’t exactly burning up the scoresheet, either. In fact his recent stats suggest he’s slipping back to the form that saw him wear out his welcome in Montreal. Defenseman Ryan McDonagh has been a solid addition to the Rangers blue line but has a long way to go. He will always be known as a guy that was traded away so that the Canadiens could get their man in Scott Gomez. No doubt that the sting of that trade will help fan the flames. The rest of the names: Higgins, Komisarek, Chipchura, and Lapierre have all gone on to circle the drain in their post-Canadiens tenures. Higgins continues to struggle to find the form that had Habs fans labeling him as the team’s future captain. He’s seen time in New York, Calgary, and now Florida, with few signs that he will return to being the player that had three consecutive 20-goal seasons in Montreal. Mike Komisarek has been a huge failure in Toronto after signing a big contract, and everyone except Brian Burke will admit that. Kyle Chipchura is a spare part in Anaheim as he was in Montreal, and Max Lapierre is utterly lost with the same Anaheim team. Perhaps most famously, Jaroslav Halak has been very average with the Blues this season after enchanting an entire city with his performance last year. After a fantastic start to the season, his play has eroded significantly.

Circumstances vary, and the jury is still out on many of these players, but it’s clear from just taking a quick look at the list that very few players actually leave Montreal and become poster boys for success, or are cautionary tales for giving up too early. The myth is just that: A myth. It’s no guarantee that a young player will become a star elsewhere. That said, in this age of the salary cap, it is imperative that teams get the best from their young players or suffer the consequences. The Canadiens have struggled in this aspect, but it’s pretty clear to me that they were not always dealing with blue-chip stocks. I’m not getting in to what the Canadiens got (or didn’t get) in return for these players when they were given their walking papers. That’s a separate issue for another time.

But for now, we can at least try to shelve the discussion that all youngsters dumped by the Canadiens become superstars elsewhere.

Can you think of any other Habs that were traded away, only to become stars elsewhere?

Halak Trade Blog Roundup

As a Habs fan with a blog, I thought it would be almost compulsory to write yet another blog about the Halak trade, but I’m not going to do that. There are a lot of blogs already out there that already sum up what I feel (in summary: inevitable, necessary, smart).

Instead of adding to the chatter, I want to post a roundup of some of the Halak blogs written in the past couple days:

All Habs: Halak Fans Singing the Blues

The Active Stick: The Halak trade may not actually be the end of the world

The Daily Hab-It: Everyone Breathe Deeply and For What It’s Worth

Schmitzy Says: I’m back. You might not like me though. But I don’t super dig many of you right now either. So sue me.

Habs Loyalist: Obituaries

The Checking Line: BREAKING NEWS: Jaroslav Halak Traded to St. Louis Blues

Eric Engels at HockeyBuzz: Gauthier Trades Halak to Blues. Commits to Price and Salary Space.

That ought to fill your cup many times over, if you haven’t read enough already. These are all worth reading for their own merits and the whole spectrum of opinion is represented here. If I forgot any blogs, please let me know and I’ll add them to the list.

Enjoy!

P.S. Be sure to check out my blog post that I wrote Wednesday before the Halak deal went down, advocating Pierre Gauthier’s need to make bold moves.

There’s Something to be Said for Blind Faith

I confess, I didn’t believe, either. On this very blog I said the Canadiens would bow out in 6 to the Capitals. Don’t get me wrong, I took no joy in saying that. It pained me very much, actually. And it pained me to think that I was being generous in giving the Canadiens 6 games. That was my stupid brain talking. By the end of game 3, I was hurting, but took solace in the fact that I had seen this coming. That it was merely inevitability setting in. It made the losing easier to swallow. In stark contrast, earlier in the month, I wondered about the next steps in the Canadiens rebuilding plan, and mentioned that I had an eerily good feeling about the Canadiens. That was my heart talking, and it was before the final week of the year that saw the Canadiens clumsily stumble in to the playoffs.

The only common ground between my head and heart was that there was no way that the Canadiens would be embarrassed by the Capitals, despite the apparent mismatch. They hang in there, “make us proud” for not being crushed like everyone said they would, and then we’d talk about how great that was. Then the requisite “next year the team will be better talk” would resume.

While the vast majority of bloggers, experts, and even ardent Habs fans took the Capitals, there were those who stayed with the Canadiens. Whether because they refused to pick against their team, or because they truly thought they would win, I’ll tip my hat to those who picked the Habs from the start. I did that last year, mostly because I was too afraid of what I would see in the mirror if I chose the Bruins. So I took the Canadiens to upset the Boston. My loyalty was rewarded with an embarrassing 4-game sweep in which the Canadiens barely put up a fight against their forever rival.

So I was done with the blind faith thing. I was always the type to take the Habs no matter what, and more often than not, the Canadiens would find a way to flame out in a spectacular way. This year really marks the first time that I decided to go with my brain, and I was rewarded for it with a lesson in eating crow. Best tasting crow I’ve ever had, but it just goes to show that in the playoffs, and in the first round in particular, you just never know.

Here’s what NOBODY can say they saw coming: that the Habs would block ten million shots, and that Halak would instantly make himself a folk hero, if he wasn’t one already. The defense that ran around their own zone all season long (literally) looked like the total opposite of themselves, against the best team in the league no less. They were poised, tough, effective, efficient and played with heart. Even though the number of shots against was sky-high, and even though many of those shots were of the extremely dangerous variety, the defense really did a good job of limiting second and third opportunities.

While most of the credit belongs to Halak and the defense, the forwards are not undeserving of praise either. Gainey’s acquisitions all paid off big dividends during the series. Even Max Lapierre reappeared after an 85 game slumber (with sporadic fits of wakefulness). Something got in to these guys. There really was a flip that was switched on, and the Capitals were completely unable to turn it off.

Now as we look forward to tomorrow night’s game vs the Penguins, I find myself trying to break down the series. The heart, as always, says to go with the Habs. But there’s the stupid brain again. It’s saying that Crosby has shown over the past year why he is without a doubt the best player in the world. Not the flashiest (though he does cast a considerable glare of his own), but the best. He’s more clutch than those mentioned alongside him as best in the world. Even if the Habs manage to ensnare Crosby in some sort of quagmire, they have that bull named Evgeni Malkin to deal with. You remember him, don’t you? Last year’s Conn Smythe trophy winner? Of course you do. While he’s not the focalpoint of the Penguins attack, he can certainly take over a game on his own. Then there’s Jordin Staal. And Max Talbot. And Bill Guerin…all guys who still have the stink of Lord Stanley all over them. They obviously know what it takes to win. This is a good matchup for the Penguins, but are they still as hungry? You see how the brain louses everything up? Why should I even entertain the thought of the Habs losing after what we just saw? If the Habs beat the Caps, they can be the Penguins, right? Counting intangibles is tough, and while you’ll find plenty of intangibles on any Cup winning club, the Canadiens have shown that they aren’t without the je ne sais quoi qualities, either.

So I’m reverting back to form. I’m going to be a believer in this series. If they get down, I’ll believe that they’ll crawl back. If they crumble, I’ll believe that they’ll bounce back.

Has the Tide in the Halak vs Price Debate Turned?

Last month, the boys over at Habseyesontheprize.com posted a brilliant breakdown of the stats between Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. It’s too long and in-depth to even tell you about the conclusions, and besides, it’s so well done that it deserves to be read on its own. Take the 10 minutes to check it out, it’s worth it.

I wanted to provide a little update on the stats today, though I am certainly not going to get in to as much depth as they did. This is the quick & dirty edition. I’m also going to go as far back as December 19th, the day that Andrei Markov rejoined the team. That was the date that Habs fans pointed to as the game to which we will see the real Canadiens stand up and show themselves. Since then, Jaroslav Halak has started 11 games, and Price has started just 6.

Before I start with the details, I want to make it known that I don’t care who starts for the Canadiens, so long as each gets their fair chance. I also want it to be known that I don’t care which one is traded, so long as the Canadiens are a better team AFTER the deal than before it, and for many years thereafter. Also for the record: I reject the argument that you can’t trade the 5th overall draft choice. We just acquired the 4th pick in the same draft year as Price in Benoit Pouliot, so let’s not say that these types of selections can’t be moved.

Here are their stats since December 19th, the day Andrei Markov returned:

Price (6 starts) Halak (11 starts)
Record 2-3-1 8-2-1
Save percentage .918 .943
Save percentage in wins .944 .967
Save percentage in losses .905 .880
Average goals for in wins 3.5 3.9
Average goals for in losses 1.8 1.6
Average shots against per game 33.2 37.5

So what do we make of these numbers? Do we want to start looking at quality of opponent. We could, but I think that’s becoming a lame-duck argument. In the East, there are really only 4 good teams: the Sabres, Devils, Penguins and Capitals. Everyone else is very up-and-down, and not much better than any other team among the other 13 teams. But just for fun, let’s take a look. Price played the Capitals and Sabres in his last 6 games, and because the team in front of him is not that good, he lost both, including a 1-0 loss to the Sabres in which Price was terrific, posting a .971 save percentage. If one goalie in the league was going to be better that night, it had to be Ryan Miller, who, in my opinion is the hands down Vézina Trophy winner at this point. On the flip side, Halak played the Devils twice, who are notorious for beating the Canadiens each and every time. In fact, the Canadiens just won a Friday game in New Jersey for the first time since 1989. Martin Brodeur simply owns the Canadiens. That said, Halak went 1-0-1 vs the Devils, posting a .969 save percentage in the win, and a .929 save percentage in a 2-1 overtime loss. Halak took 3 pts, while Price took none. Easy to say that Halak wins this battle, and if you’re the type that is all about points, no matter how they come, then Halak is your guy. I’ll give Halak the slight edge, because the end result DOES matter, but Price did everything he could to give the Canadiens a chance to beat the Sabres at home.

The numbers are good across the board for both goaltenders. Both face a lot of rubber, and both are very efficient at stopping the puck.  Price seems to be steadier overall, with less fluctuation in his save percentages. Halak, meanwhile, seems to be very very good (and has been perfect in 3 instances in the past month) in wins, and is not very good in losses. The similarities are striking. Halak’s save percentage is .23 higher than Price’s when the Canadiens win, while his save percentage in losses is .25 lower. Again, it says that when Halak is good, he’s nearly unbeatable. When he’s bad, the Canadiens are almost guaranteed to lose.

So where does this leave us? At this point it comes down to intangibles. Many of which we are not privy to. How do the rest of the Canadiens view their 2 young goaltenders, behind closed doors…beyond the clichés? What is their body language like on the ice after they surrender a goal? Is one more likely than the other to give up a bad goal? Lately, I believe Price has given up more weak, demoralizing goals than has Halak, and does not seem to have the same level of 60-minute focus as Halak. That is totally subject to interpretation and personal opinion/bias. Halak’s rebound control is not as sharp as Price’s (though Price’s has not been so hot lately either; the goalie coach is not helping either improve in this area). It’s an adventure when either leave their crease.

As the Canadiens struggle to stay in the playoff race, they have no choice but to go with the goalie that is delivering wins on a more consistent basis. Right now that guy is Halak. Today being the Monday after a good weekend for the Canadiens, and Halak in particular, I was not surprised to see Montreal Gazette veterans Dave Stubbs and Jack Todd throw their support behind Halak for the #1 job. TSN’s Bob McKenzie is a regular guest on the Team 990 and also said that he believes that Jacques Martin has no choice but to let Halak run with the #1 job until he blows it. And no, a loss does not mean he’s blown it. It is at the same time fascinating and sad that in 79 career games with the Canadiens, Jaroslav Halak has NEVER been allowed to start the next game following a loss. Never. How can a team properly evaluate what a goaltender’s mental constitution is if they do not allow him the opportunity to bounce back from a loss? Many feel that Halak was robbed of the chance to get the Canadiens in to the playoffs 2 seasons ago in the last game of the season vs the Leafs. Halak had carried the ball for the injured the Cristobal Huet, but former coach Guy Carbonneau decided to go with Huet when he was ready to go for that last game. Huet folded like a cheap tent, and the Canadiens were eliminated, blowing a big 3rd period lead. Last season, many will say that Halak’s performances are what got the Canadiens in to the playoffs last season, and was again denied the chance to play. The Canadiens were swept by the Bruins, and I don’t think Halak would have done anything to prevent that. Gainey decided to let Price play, in order to let him gain more experience in meaningful games. I’m not sure how much experience was gained in those 4 embarassing losses.

This season is a different story, however. Both Price and Halak are restricted free agents, and both deserve to prove what they’re made of. Halak has been repeatedly put in to a corner, and essentially told that he’s not allowed to screw up. And for the most part, he hasn’t. When he loses, Carey Price gets the next start, and, presumably, the chance to retake the #1 job. He has not done that, despite being very good in 3 of his last 6 starts. I guess that what I’m saying is that it is time to let Halak show what he can do. The Canadiens would only be doing themselves a disservice by not getting the full picture. They’d also be cheating themselves if Halak can further raise his trade value from where it is. Or maybe they do an about-face and decide that they want to keep Halak and move Price for a King’s ransom.

This does not mean that I think Price is the obvious choice to be sent out of town. Ditto for Halak. Gainey has a very tough choice on to make, and, frankly, one that 29 other General Managers would kill to have the privilege of making. It’s still unlikely to me that Gainey will part ways with Price given how much he has supported him, but he did also say that Guy Carbonneau was the best move he had ever made, only to fire him a couple months later. Gainey has to weigh the relative performance of each goalie vs what they’ll probably be making next season vs what either asset can bring back to the team. If he’s approaching this with an open mind, and if he finds that moving Price makes most sense, then that’s what he has to do. His job is to improve the Canadiens, regardless of the names on the back of the jersey, and regardless of what it means to his reputation.

These are decisions I’m glad I don’t have to make. You know, I think we can all agree that Canadiens fans have many other problems to dissect, but goaltending is not one of them. But it is fun to talk about, isn’t it?

UPDATE (1:03 p.m.): Sometimes when you post a blog like this, you hope that you’re not going to get slammed for it. But I’m relieved that Elliotte Friedman of Hockey Night in Canada also now believes that Gainey needs to consider trading Price. Again – consider, not absolutely trade.


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