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Random Friday Musings – May 4th

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Another work week is just about in the books, and as is usually the case, the sports world has given us plenty to talk about. Here’s some brief thoughts on what’s gone on, starting with…

Marc Bergevin as Habs GM. Without knowing the guy, or much about his body of work, I really like the hire. He comes from a winning organization and was an integral part of transforming it from a laughing stock to a recent Cup winner. Here’s hoping that he brought a lot of knowledge with him so that he can do the same in Montreal. He has oh so much work to do, and not a lot of time to do it in. Read more on what I think he has on his task list here. Did the Habs get the best man for the job, regardless of politics? Hard to say, but given the realities (self-imposed realities or not) of the Montreal market, you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody who doesn’t like the hiring. He made a terrific first impression at his press conference, and seems to be the opposite of the life-sucking Pierre Gauthier, which already is an improvement.

L.A. Kings roll. Raise your hand if you thought the Kings would not only beat the President’s Trophy winning Canucks, but be on the verge of sweeping the third overall St. Louis Blues, the league’s best defensive team. What the Kings are doing is nothing short of remarkable. Of course, any team with Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick, and Dustin Brown should never be written off, but it’s the lesser known role players who are chipping in at key times, which is critical in the playoffs. Are they a team of destiny? They are poised to dump the Kings, and whoever advances between Nashville and Phoenix is going to have their hands full. Let’s look ahead to a future that sees the Kings knocking off the Rangers in the Cup finals. It would be the most remarkable Cup win in history (or one of the most remarkable). Who else could boast knocking off the top 3 teams in the league during the regular season? That said, the last 15 consecutive Cup winners started the playoffs with home ice advantage, so the smart money is still on any of the remaining 1-4 seeds.

Shame on Radulov, Kostitsyn. No, I’m not going to play the “they’re Russian / Belarussian, what did you expect?” card. That’s nonsense and if you subscribe to that theory, kindly take the down the Don Cherry poster that is hanging from the ceiling above your bed. Still, these two offensive talents were brought in to add scoring punch to a lineup that has everything else. That they decided to break curfew in order to stay out drinking – on the eve of a playoff game – is a supremely arrogant and selfish act. It shows disrespect to the team and organization that put their faith in them at the most critical time, and it’s a slap in the face to teammates who would probably also to prefer to be out having a good time, but put the team first by adhering to the team curfew. The Predators are equipped to go all the way, and now these two selfish turds have put their coach and GM in a really tough spot. They won game 3 handily without Radulov and Kostitsyn, and the popular refrain is that you do not alter a winning lineup in the playoffs. Another loss will push the Preds to the brink and at that point you’ll see both back in action. But it would likely be too late. Depending on your point of view, Coach Barry Trotz has an easy call in front of him – let them sit in the press box. Should the Preds lose tonight, however, there will be no shortage of people who say the punishment extended beyond it’s original definition, and that Trotz hurt the team. In the end, the blame falls squarely on two players (one of whom I defended quite vehemently) who put their Coach in a position he should never have to be in come playoff time. Here’s hoping they both land in the KHL next season, which is where their selfish actions will likely land them anyway.

Unfitting end of a great career? I’m no Yankees fan, but when I heard that Mariano Rivera, hands-down the greatest closer to ever play the game blew out his knee, I was really sad. I can’t think of a more unfitting and unfair end to a stellar career than shagging fly balls in Kansas City. Yet another reason to loathe the perpetual machine of failure called the Royals. Could he not have done it falling awkwardly off the mound instead? At 42 years old, it’s hard to imagine Rivera will want to put in the hard work required to rehab a shredded knee, just to play another season. He was already contemplating retirement after this year and this injury may have forced his hand. It’s a pity. He deserved to go out to a chorus of cheers at Yankee Stadium, in the post-season after striking out some hapless, knee-buckled chap with his devastating cutter pitch. That likely won’t happen now, and baseball is the biggest loser for it.

Powerless Pujols. The last time Albert Pujols went this long without hitting a home run, he was in his mother’s womb. I don’t think I’d be concerned if I was an Angels fan – yet. He’s still this era’s most feared hitter and it’s just a matter of time before he finds his stroke. He’s only hitting .204, which is way, way, way below his standard of excellence but again, this guy is a beast and will get it back. He’s patient, poised, has a great eye, a terrific swing and has been as consistent as it gets. If he doesn’t get it back, the Angels will have another 9 years to figure out what to do with him, and it would be an even more mysterious drop in an elite level athlete than Tiger Woods’ own collapse. With the Angels scuffling at the bottom of the AL West, the pressure will continue to mount on Pujols as his power outage drags on. But if there’s one guy who can weather this and then carry a team on his back, it’s Pujols. Hey, at least he hasn’t made an error yet, right?

Junior Seau’s suicide. Not much is sadder in sports than learning about the death of one of the greats. Usually we hear about them passing away at a ripe old age after living a full life, but in recent years it seems that players from hockey and especially football are dropping like flies – by their own hand. That’s even more tragic. The connection between head trauma caused by contact, punches, collisions leading to eventual depression and finally suicide is going to be mentioned again and again, and while leagues try to cover their butts, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that they are facing a serious issue that they need to get to the bottom of. Because if they don’t do it by voluntarily, there’s a little thing called the government that will make them do it, and then we’ll be really unhappy. The NFL already has a boatload of lawsuits against them to deal with. There will be more. Many more. They can’t avoid this forever, and the NHL would be wise to get out in front of this issue instead of trying to preserve what seems to be rotten.

A Tangled Weber

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I’ll admit up front that the larger point of this blog entry was to see if I remembered my login details for my own website (mission accomplished!).

Now that I’m safely logged in, I just want to get something out of the way, and hopefully won’t take up too much of your time.

Every year around this time, we Habs fans sit around the campfire and look for the shiniest object with which we can adorn our team with. This year, many Habs fans have set their sights on Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber. Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have a guy like Weber in the lineup, even at the hefty price tag he’s sure to command. But (there’s always a but, isn’t there?) there’s a heavy cost to snatching a guy of Weber’s caliber away from the Predators over and above his nasty cap hit.

Most Habs fans simply assume that tossing an RFA offer sheet at Weber, and forcing Nashville – a team with its own internal budget that is surely far lower than the Canadiens – to match the Habs rich offer or surrender his services. Let’s all do the happy dance, right?

You see, there’s a reason why pilfering RFAs from other teams is a rarely used method of player acquisition. On one hand, it’s the NHL equivalent of M.A.D – mutually assured destruction. You want my RFA? I’m taking yours. And the spiraling costs will simply lead to another work stoppage. Just ask Kevin Lowe if he wants a mulligan on the Dustin Penner acquisition, or ask Buffalo how they feel about having to match Lowe’s ludicrous offer to Thomas Vanek. On the other hand, I believe that what goes around, comes around. If the Habs want to swipe Shea Weber, somebody will be all too eager to take a stab at acquiring PK Subban, Carey Price, Lars Eller, or Max Pacioretty in the very near future. Given the heavy contracts the Canadiens are already saddled with, you can safely bet that at least one of those players would be plying their trade elsewhere. Also, in the ultimate safeguard against making RFA pitches for all-star talent, there’s the little issue of compensation to the other team after they fail to match the courting team’s offer.

If you want to sign an RFA, then depending on the annual cap hit they bring them, you have to give up the following assets to the other team:

Salary Amount Compensation
$994,433 or less None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716 3rd round pick
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 2nd round pick
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 1st and 3rd round pick
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
Over $7,533,584 Four 1st round picks

Now we can safely assume that Shea Weber will fall somewhere between the last two brackets. The Canadiens already fairly thin on the farm, with little prime talent on the horizon. Dropping more high-end picks would be nothing more than a short-term payoff with a suicidal ending. Moreover, when you factor in that Montreal typically has to overpay free agents to compensate for the fishbowl, taxes, politics, (take your pick), it’s also reasonable to believe that Shea Weber would fetch over 7.533 million per season, thus forcing the Habs to kick back four first round picks to Nashville.

Read that again.

Four.

First.

Round.

Picks.

Gone.

Sure, Gauthier could always try to recoup those lost picks in other ways, but you’ve got to ask yourself if the high cap hit and lost assets would be worth acquiring one defenseman. And as a final killshot to this fantasy, let’s remember that the collective bargaining agreement is up at the end of next season, and is sure to have ramifications on how teams dole out contracts over the next year or so. It would be similarly stupid for Gauthier to saddle himself with another fat contract while ridding himself of prime assets.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

In the meantime, I’m going to write down my username and password for safe keeping.

The Shortest Playoff Preview

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I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t post my thoughts on the playoffs, but I don’t want to keep you all day with in-depth analysis. There’s tons of sites out there that do it better than I can. So I’m keeping it as short as I can, which may be hard given my tendency to ramble endlessly.

Eastern Conference


Montreal Canadiens (8) vs  Washington Capitals (1)

Like Spock in last year’s awesome Star Trek movie, I’m emotionally comprimised on this one. I risk imprisonment by saying this, but there is no reason to pick the Canadiens in this matchup. None.  Either Ovechkin chokes like he did in the Olympics, or Habs goaltending steals the show. Caps were consistently good all year, Habs were consistently inconsistent, and show no sign of getting back on track. Don’t talk to me about Cinderella, or even about the fact that the Habs took 5 of 8 points vs the league leaders. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia Flyers (7) vs New Jersey Devils (2)

The Flyers owned the Devils this year, winning 5 of 6. They won close games and they won by blowout. They won at home, they won on the road. Martin Brodeur has once again played a ton of hockey, appearing in 77 games, plus the Olympics. The Flyers forwards will get in his kitchen, and he’ll fade late in the series, as he has been known to do in recent years. Still, the Devils are the Devils and are a good hockey team. They’ll keep it closer than the season series indicates it should. Flyers in 6.

Boston Bruins (6) vs Buffalo Sabres (3)

Here’s my upset special. The Bruins could have folded after losing just about everyone this year, but especially when Marc Savard got his block knocked off for the umpteenth time. Instead, they went 10-6-2 down the stretch, including winning 4 of their last 5, and picking up a point in their loss. Tuukka Rask may not get any nominations this year, but he’s been as good as any goalie in the league this year. He’s just about made Tim Thomas redundant in Boston (good luck with that contract!). A strong playoff run for Rask will all but cement that. He’ll have to be great in order to best Ryan Miller. As good of a coach as Lindy Ruff is, I think the Bruins pull it out in 7.

Ottawa Senators (5) at Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

I don’t quite know how the Senators managed to keep it together, but they did and deserve credit. Spezza has been reborn, even without Dany Heatley. They’re just a well balanced bunch who play smart hockey. That’s a tough combo to beat in the playoffs. That said, the Penguins have been to the cup finals twice in the past 2 years and they are the defending champs. Crosby will want to make an gold medal sandwich using the Stanley Cup as the bread. He may or may not get there, but Senators won’t be the group to derail him. Penguins in 6.


Western Conference


Colorado Avalanche (8) vs San Jose Sharks (1)

If ever the Sharks were going to make a leap, now’s the time. The Avalanche are 1 of 2 things to me: a team that spent itself to make the playoffs or a team that now that they are in, are just glad to be there. The Sharks are acutely aware of the stigma attached to them and desperately want to shed that label. Is Heatley the guy to help them do it? Time will tell, but I think the Sharks overwhelm the Avalanche, who deserve tons of credit for having the season they have. Sharks in 5.

Nashville Predators (7) vs Chicago Blackhawks (2)

The Blackhawks do not want to be the 2010 version of the 2009 Sharks. They have been an projected Cup contender since the start of the year, and if not for some shaky goaltending, they may be the clear cut choice. But it seems that neither Cristobal Huet or Antti Niemi are in the mood to deliver Cup-calibre goaltending. The Predators are not to be overlooked, as they have solid goaltending with Pekka Rinne and some horses like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They are blue-collar up front, which may rub the Hawks the wrong way. In the end, the Hawks are too strong up front. Blackhawks in 6.

Los Angeles Kings (6) vs Vancouver Canucks (3)

They say that you have to learn to lose before you can win. If true, the Kings and their fans are going to be disappointed (yet should be doing cartwheels for their future is bright!). The Canucks are solid everywhere, and though their defense is not the best, you’ve got to beat one of the game’s best in Luongo. I’m not Roberto’s biggest fan, but the guy can stop pucks.  If the Kings defense, led by youngsters Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can shut down the Sedins (including Art Ross winner Henrik), it will be up to Rob Scuderi (who was terrific with the Penguins last year) and Sean O’Donnell to stop Ryan Kesler. Easier said than done. I don’t want to dismiss the Kings’ attack, nor the Ryan Smyth factor, but to me this series says heartbreak for the Kings. Canucks in 7.

Detroit Red Wings (5) vs Phoenix Coyotes (4)

Don’t let the standings fool you. Yes, the Coyotes were magical this year, and Dave Tippett will win the Jack Adams award, and if he doesn’t there ought to be an investigation. But it was not that long ago that the Red Wings were battling for their playoff lives. But these are the Red Wings. The guys that have forgotten what it’s like to not have a 100 point season. The Wings have shown who they are over the last month, winning 12 of their last 15 games and losing 2 of those 3 remaining games after regulation. As amazing a story as the Coyotes have been all year long, I’ll be stunned if they hang around too long in this series. Bryzgalov will have to be on top of his game, which, given his excellent season may not be crazy at all. Red Wings in 5.

Feel free to weigh in!


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