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Cowards at Play

I didn’t want to blog anymore about the continuing rampant violence in the NHL, especially with the King of Conflict of Interests Colin Campbell at the helm. It had become a pointless exercise. Any more broken record jabber by me about headshots and excessive violence would have been useful if I got paid to write for this site, but I don’t, so I stopped talking about it. I’ve written about it plenty in the past, and my stance is quite obvious for anyone who’s been reading this site.

But the NHL’s continued incompetence has forced my hand once again, and like hundreds of other hockey blogs, I feel the need to sound off on what has been going on in these NHL playoffs.

Last night, notorious madman Raffi Torres set his crosshairs on Blackhawks winger Marian Hossa’s head and sent him to the hospital. Thankfully Hossa has since been released from hospital, but again, the culture of hockey that needs to change is so resolutely set in stone that anybody with a chance to change it either doesn’t want it changed (because they’re afraid and/or cowardly), or is content to ride out their careers and leave this mess for the next generation to clean up. This is not to let the on-ice officials off the hook. The quality of officiating in hockey today is in such a sorry state of disrepair. As the top-shelf hockey league in the world, the NHL needs to be embarrassed about the depths of stink that the referees have sunk to. Barely a night goes by without hearing a hockey fan somewhere groan when they learn which officials will be working their team’s game. Blaming the refs, a loser’s lament, has become an inescapable part of game analysis.

Throughout history (both real and fictional), there have been countless entities charged with protecting an institution. The NHL itself, the General Managers, the Board of Governors and the NHLPA all form an ecosystem that sets the direction for the sport and is responsible for ensuring the game’s growth and protecting its integrity. Over the last 20 years, hockey has grown in leaps and bounds, but I’m not so sure we can say the same about the integrity of the game. Perhaps in the NHL’s opinion, the ends justify the means. Integrity takes a back seat to profits, so it appears. Last year in the wake of the Chara/Pacioretty incident, Brian Burke waxed poetic about not wanting to change the “fabric of the game” with outright bans on headshots. Right. So instead, we’ll compromise the fabric of the game in other ways, most notably watching players leaving on stretchers for hits that should not be happening in the first place. It’s simply inexplicable that lewd gestures, and critical opinions are more offensive in the eyes of the league than is a shot that sidelines marketable star players for months on end.

When the execrable Colin Campbell was replaced by Brendan Shanahan, hockey fans rejoiced, or at worst were cautiously optimistic. Shanahan got off to a strong start as the czar of discipline, but it seems that before long, he received complaints from the powers that be, and his desire to mete out proper justice was once again, as it was with Campbell, thrown in to a state of confusion, disarray, and arbitrary justice. What was a 3 game ban for one player was a flaccid $2,500 fine for another. The famous two-tier system of different rules for stars vs grunts has once again come home to roost. Between Shea Weber turnbuckling Henrik Zetterberg’s head against the glass and James Neal’s Seal Team 6 mission to kill, a total of a 1 game ban and $2,500 in fines were dished out. Yet Blackhawks forward Andrew Shaw gets 3 games for clipping a goaltender that was in the “hitting zone”. Arbitrary indeed! Everybody understands that a lot is at stake, especially in the playoffs. But if teams are free to eliminate the other team’s stars, then it won’t be long before we go from the bloodsport of today, to mutually assured destruction. (For the “I didn’t know the Titanic was real / Who is Paul McCartney” crowd, please click here to learn about Mutually Assured Destruction before continuing.)

There’s an old guard in hockey that passes the torch down from one generation to the next. The old guard exists at the league’s head office, within each team, within the NHLPA, and within the media. Those with access to a microphone seem to get off on telling fans who are fed up with the escalating violence to either go watch another sport, or to “man up”, because hockey has always been this way and should always be this way. What garbage. What an utterly myopic, dogmatic black and white view. Yes, hockey is a tough sport and nobody ever wants that aspect of the sport to change, but I didn’t know that headshots and tough, hard-hitting hockey go hand-in-hand. I didn’t know that clean play, and hard-nosed hockey were mutually exclusive. I guess I haven’t yet devoted enough time to the history of the game, or spend enough time watching hockey to know the difference.

The problem is that the dinosaurs are too thick-skulled to comprehend what people are saying. If you’re going to take a stand against reckless hits to the head, then be consistent with punishment, otherwise there’s no point in any of it. This old guard, usually a loud, boisterous, and opinionated group quickly reverts to chiding (usually of the emasculation type) whenever the topic of violence in hockey comes up. These people likely have shrines to their Rock Em, Sock Em collection, complete with VHS player that demonstrates just how out of touch and stubborn they are. They also like to tell us that “if we’ve never played the game at that level, we can’t have a real opinion”. That’s the last resort of somebody who lacks the intelligence to participate in a civilized discussion. What they’re in efffect telling us is that only current or former NHL players are allowed to opine on the sport, and that their word is gospel. If you ever find yourself in the presence of one of these people as they tell you how bad a particular movie is, kindly remind him that they’ve never held a job in film production, and they should therefore shut their pieholes.

This is about nothing but fear and cowardice on the part of the NHL, and of the vanguards of “old-time hockey”.

  • Fear of seeing hockey evolve to the point where they don’t recognize it without the sheer brutality and over-the-top violence.
  • Fear of becoming irrelevant and out of touch.
  • Cowardice in that the powers that be circle their wagons and deflect all responsibility so that the status quo can resume.
  • Cowardice to take the heat from the dinosaurs once real, meaningful change is enacted.

The NHL shuffles deck chairs and continues to play the shell game in terms of player safety. They like to keep us in a state of flux, somewhere between angry, confused and sedated. They fast track new rules to deter head shots and are all too eager to show the world what a progressive group they are when that happens. They drop moderately heavy hammers on bottom-feeding players in an attempt to persuade us that they are serious about player safety. Nonsense! We are back to square one. Back to that prickly limbo where everyone is left guessing as to what will happen next. The only guarantee is that the next devastating head shot is only hours away.

Surprisingly, the way to fix this is not all that hard. For the most part, hockey’s rules make sense. Referees are armed with the authority to curb much of happens on the ice, from elbows to the head, to savage hits from behind, to unsportsmanlike conduct, to post-whistle nonsense. For some reason – whether through legitimate confusion, incompetence or marching orders – referees are not calling games properly. Raffi Torres will be suspended for his filthy hit, yet he was not penalized on the play. If the officials can get their act together (and that’s a big, perhaps impossible “if”) and if the powers that be can let Shanahan do his job without meddling in his process, then perhaps some level of consistency can be attained.

But things have spiralled so far out of control already, with the old guard watching as it happens. Through their indecision and ineptness, they’ve encouraged it to happen. Case in point is the rampant retribution for clean hits that has become recently engrained in the game. Clean hits were never punishable to the extent that they are today, and this is in large part because officials refuse to crack down and enforce rules. The old guard, now more than ever seems content with cashing fat paychecks until retirement, leaving the next generation of NHL leaders to do what this current old guard is too scared and cowardly to do.

Special Teams not so Special

Everyone loves goal scoring, including the powers that be at NHL HQ, so let’s all shed a tear as we continue to tear down the illusion that is the importance of powerplays in the NHL today.

As of today, a league-average powerplay is 17.44% (powerplays are becoming so irrelevant to success that I’ve had to take this exercise to two decimal places). A couple weeks back I laid out why faith in the powerplay was misplaced. Today, we take a deeper look at league-wide comparisons of special teams and their potential to be in the playoffs.

As mentioned, a league-average powerplay today is 17.44%. Of the 16 teams currently holding a playoff position, their average powerplay is running along at 17.49%, while non-playoff teams sit at 17.37%. That’s a difference of 0.12%. Based on a projected 277 powerplays per team over the course of the season, that makes for a difference of…..wait for it….two additional goals per playoff team over 82 games. Let’s all do the Balky dance of joy for the powerplay!!!

On the other hand, the penalty kill has snuck in to steal the title of “more important of the two special teams”. The average NHL team today has a 82.47% penalty kill. The average playoff-bound team today has a 83.6% penalty kill, while the average non-playoff team has a 81.2% penalty kill. Here we have a spread of 2.4% between playoff and non-playoff teams; still small, but certainly a much wider divide than with the powerplay.

Looking even closer at playoff teams, we see that as of today, 9 of 16 playoff teams possess below-league-average powerplays (BOS, NJD, STL, WSH, DET, CHI, DAL, NYR, PHX). On the flip side, 9 of 16 playoff teams possess better than league average penalty kills (NSH, VAN, PIT, BOS, NJD, STL, DAL, NYR, PHX). Any way we slice it, we see that special teams are not paramount to being a playoff team, but if anything, the penalty kill has become slightly more important to success (if you define success as ‘making the playoffs’). The only conclusion? The key to being an elite NHL team today is even strength dominance.

Legendary Hall of Fame Head Coach Scotty Bowman once came up with his “Bowman Index”, which stated that if the sum of your special team success rates added up to over 100, you were in good shape. His theory is tenuous today, and at best barely rings true. 10 of 16 current playoff teams have a sum of more than 100, hardly what I’d call iron-clad. The average playoff team has an index of 101.1 (PP% + PK%), while non-playoff teams sit at 98.6, a difference of 2.5%. A league-average Bowman Index is 99.9. I wonder what Scotty would think about this? Don’t these numbers dovetail nicely with the the 2.4% spread of playoff vs non-playoff team PK performance?

It’s a fun exercise to go up and down the league looking for oddities – some teams will make you scratch your head. For example, Bowman’s former team, the Detroit Red Wings are below average in both penalty kill and powerplay success, and have a Bowman index of just 97.8 (which is worse than the average non-playoff team), yet are one of the league’s very best teams because they’ve smoked everyone at even strength. The Blackhawks, the team that Bowman currently works for are awful with their special teams (Bowman Index of 94.1 – only the Blue Jackets are worse in this regard), yet are 10th overall in the league. The province of Alberta will hopefully learn this hard lesson as they try to improve their squads in the off season. Both the Oilers and Flames possess above average special teams, and should be playoff teams based on the Bowman Index. In the case of the Oilers, they lead the league in powerplay success, yet they flat out suck once again, and the Flames will likely fall short of the playoffs. Lastly, the two conference leaders, the Rangers and Blues have sub-par powerplays, but solid penalty killing and strong even-strength play.

The game has changed greatly over the last decade, and especially since the end of the lockout. Everyone thought special teams would be of the utmost importance following a crackdown on obstruction and other infractions, but the opposite has happened since powerplay opportunities have dropped steeply in the post-lockout years. With so few powerplays, it means that the powerplay can only accomplish so much, and that far more time is being spent at even strength.

I hope the idea is becoming clearer: teams that excel at even strength rule the day.

Period.

Monday Musings – September 27

I’m calling it now: Lars Eller’s new nickname: Montreeller. Get it? Montrealer…Montreeller?
 
I’m not sure how many of you still read the Montreal Gazette, but in Saturday’s sports section, there was a story about a recently conducted poll about Canadian NHL teams and “domestic” talent. Needless to say, there were some head-scratching, yet unsurprising results. The survey found that:
Nationally, 53% of respondents support a quota for Canadian-born talent for the 6 Canadian NHL teams. Not surprisingly, Quebec buoys that majority with 69% of respondents supporting a quota of local-born talent. Atlantic Canada checks in with 54%, then Alberta with 51%. When that question was pushed a little further, and asked respondants if quotas should be enforced even if it meant losing more games, Quebec again led the pack, with 49% agreeing. Contrast that with Ontario, B.C., and Alberta, the other places where NHL hockey resides in Canada, and now the support of quotas plummets to 26%, 26% and 25% respectively. What this says is that Quebecers are twice as tolerant to losing so long as the team is populated by “les gars de chez nous”, while the rest of Canada would prefer to win. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am. We’ve long spoken about how politics trumps winning in Quebec, and this survey would seem to support that, even if the 49% isn’t even a majority.
 
Preaching to the choir: Habs fans on twitter have rallied around each other and to Price’s defense. Wonderful. Now how does that message get across to the thick-skulled buffoons who will continue to jeer his every mistake? We’ve got to step out of the echochamber on this one, folks. Speaking of stepping out, when is Pierre Gauthier or someone else in the Habs brass going to send a message to the idiotic fans? Are the Habs brass that afraid of pissing off the people that pay for the tickets? Get a backbone! Or are they going to get Jean Beliveau to record some sort of message imploring fans to support the team and its players? That would be the height of pathetic on the organization’s part, but I sooner see that happening before I see Pierre Boivin, Pierre Gauthier or Jacques Martin standing up to the bullies in the stands and in the media.
 
Speaking of idiotic fans booing their teams, it seems the Leafs aren’t without troubles of their own. They were booed off the ice after being skunked 5-0 by the Senators. As stupid as it is to boo players, or your team, maybe teams would be well served not to charge full prices for games that mean nothing. As useless as the games are in the standings, people’s money is all too meaningful.
 
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The Texas Rangers in the playoffs? Really? As unreal as that sounds, it will be nice to see former Expos outfielder Vlad Guerrero play some meaningful October baseball. I’m still rooting for the Twins to take it all.
 
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The Alouettes are full value for their Eastern Division leading 9-3 record, but anyone who tells you they didn’t get lucky on Friday in Winnipeg is kidding themselves. Twice on the game-winning drive the Blue Bombers were hosed on bad, or questionable calls. The first was an illegal contact on a receiver which was the questionable call. The second was a fumble that was ruled incomplete. If the correct call had been made either time, the Als would be 8-4 today. Still good enough for first place, and would have kept the heat on in a seemingly rare year when they’re actually being pushed by the Argonauts and Tiger Cats.
 
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I used to not care so much for the CFL, but have come around over the last several years. But I’m confused…in a league that has trouble keeping 8 teams in the league (one guy actually owns TWO teams in the eight-team league), what is with all this talk of potentially expanding to 10, or even 12 teams? Sure it would be wonderful, but the CFL also has quotas for Canadian talent that each team has to meet, and has some trouble doing at times. How would the league deal with this if they mandated themselves to add 80+ more Canadians to the league without watering down talent? CFL fans are passionate about the Canadian content of their teams, and would, in my uninformed opinion, be very unwilling to let that number drop very far. Perhaps they should run the same poll as above on CFL fans.
 
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I thought this was one of the most boring weekends for NFL football in recent memory. In fact, through 3 weeks of the 2010 season, things have been mostly ho-hum in the NFL. That is, until my Dolphins took on the Jets last night on Sunday Night Football. What an exciting game. Sadly, Miami was not able to overcome the 14-0 hole they dug for themselves, and blew their chances at taking the lead with missed opportunities and untimely penalties.
 
 

Predictable, Scripted and Contrived. We Will All Be Watching

Ah, the Winter Classic. The outdoors, middle of winter, the fresh air…hopefully some idyllic snowflakes (that goalies will invariably use to buttress their creases). In an attempt to evoke childhood memories and the roots of the game, the NHL has found some secret sauce with the now annual New Year’s Day outdoor game. On a day that is still ruled by College Football, the “lowly” NHL has managed to get itself on the radar with their ode to all things folksy about the game.

Personally, I’ve never been overly impressed with these games. The settings have been neat. The games for the most part, have not. Try as the NHL may with its well-produced marketing efforts, I’ve never been fully captivated with these games aside from the fact that it’s hockey on a day where I’m usually trying to cure a pounding headache.

Now I know that the NHL is a business and with their latest sacred cow wants to milk these things for all they are worth…but could something be as predictable, scripted and contrived as a Penguins vs Capitals matchup? I know you want to showcase your best when you have the spotlight, but come on. Sure, “Sid the Kid” and “Alex the Gr8″ qualify as the best that the NHL can offer, but when things as predictable as this come to pass, I just want someone to pass me the bucket. Can you imagine how much hype will surround this event? Unless you’re a Penguins fan, Capitals fan, employee of the network carrying the event, an NHL employee, or a hockey-loving vacuum (even this may be a stretch for those of you who love all things hockey), you may want to invest in a bilge pump to keep from drowning in the thick gravy we’re all about to be hosed with. Note to the NHL (and especially to NBC): there ARE other stars and other teams in your league.

Frankly, I’m surprised at my own reaction. I figured I’d enjoy something like this. Maybe I will, but right now my impression is that this feels manufactured and vacuous. A Crosby / Ovechkin matchup would sell at any point, in any year but I believe that the NHL dropped the ball by announcing this so quickly. I have a suggestion, albeit a moot one. Hear me out, but I think with the hockey we are about to be treated to, the NHL would have been wise to wait and see how the Cup Finals played out and thought of concocting a Toews / Richards rematch for their next Winter Classic. The 2 best players in the league *today* may not be Crosby and Ovechkin, but Richards and Toews. You can certainly make that argument.

With the plotlines that engulf this upcoming series (Hawks in 6, by the way), there could have been an air of authenticity and genuine nastiness to this affair. With Sidney and Alex, I get the sense that the only plotlines would be “can Crosby can channel his shinny hockey childhood once again to topple his nemesis?” or “can Ovechkin can gain a measure of redemption against the kid who has a Stanley Cup, Gold Medal and Maurice Richard trophy to his recent collection?” It just feels tired, uninspired and lazy to me. A weak attempt to add 8 minutes to the feature-length DVD that we’re sure to see one day about the Crosby/Ovechkin rivalry. Apparently the legends are true. NBC, at least when it comes to hockey, really does stand for “Nobody But Crosby”. I do like Crosby. A lot in fact. But there has never been a moment in NHL history where so many GREAT young stars are filling out rosters everywhere.

I admit, it could be a great game, and I always hope that it is. But we’ve also seen that outdoor conditions can severely affect a player or team that relies on skill to succeed. Anything other than an offensive show would probably leave most fans feeling cheated. By January 2nd, I could end up eating my words, and I hope I do. It might be a great game in a great setting. But for now, with the calendar about to roll over to June, this leaves me completely indifferent. But like most of you, I will gladly watch, simply because we all love the game and we don’t want to miss a thing.

I haven’t even touched on the Canadiens – Flames matchup that will take place in February in Calgary at McMahon Stadium.

My reaction to this game is “Why?”

I’ve never been to Calgary, but I hear it’s pretty cold and unpleasant in February. I don’t know why this game needs to happen. Wouldn’t the Oilers or Leafs or Canucks or Senators (ok, not the Senators) be as good a matchup? Again, I’m not opposed to this, but I just don’t get it. Please sell me on this, unless you share my opinion. If the Canadiens are to play an outdoor game, it should be at Percival Molson Stadium, where the CFL’s Alouettes play. Now THAT would be a setting I could get excited about. Aside from the setting, what’s the draw to this game? The return of Cammalleri to Calgary? Where he spent one season? If it was a marketing angle in the least, it’s already been done…

How do you feel about these games? Is the NHL going to the well too often? Is the whole thing too formulaic? Please leave your thoughts below, and thanks for reading!

The Shortest Playoff Preview

I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t post my thoughts on the playoffs, but I don’t want to keep you all day with in-depth analysis. There’s tons of sites out there that do it better than I can. So I’m keeping it as short as I can, which may be hard given my tendency to ramble endlessly.

Eastern Conference


Montreal Canadiens (8) vs  Washington Capitals (1)

Like Spock in last year’s awesome Star Trek movie, I’m emotionally comprimised on this one. I risk imprisonment by saying this, but there is no reason to pick the Canadiens in this matchup. None.  Either Ovechkin chokes like he did in the Olympics, or Habs goaltending steals the show. Caps were consistently good all year, Habs were consistently inconsistent, and show no sign of getting back on track. Don’t talk to me about Cinderella, or even about the fact that the Habs took 5 of 8 points vs the league leaders. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia Flyers (7) vs New Jersey Devils (2)

The Flyers owned the Devils this year, winning 5 of 6. They won close games and they won by blowout. They won at home, they won on the road. Martin Brodeur has once again played a ton of hockey, appearing in 77 games, plus the Olympics. The Flyers forwards will get in his kitchen, and he’ll fade late in the series, as he has been known to do in recent years. Still, the Devils are the Devils and are a good hockey team. They’ll keep it closer than the season series indicates it should. Flyers in 6.

Boston Bruins (6) vs Buffalo Sabres (3)

Here’s my upset special. The Bruins could have folded after losing just about everyone this year, but especially when Marc Savard got his block knocked off for the umpteenth time. Instead, they went 10-6-2 down the stretch, including winning 4 of their last 5, and picking up a point in their loss. Tuukka Rask may not get any nominations this year, but he’s been as good as any goalie in the league this year. He’s just about made Tim Thomas redundant in Boston (good luck with that contract!). A strong playoff run for Rask will all but cement that. He’ll have to be great in order to best Ryan Miller. As good of a coach as Lindy Ruff is, I think the Bruins pull it out in 7.

Ottawa Senators (5) at Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

I don’t quite know how the Senators managed to keep it together, but they did and deserve credit. Spezza has been reborn, even without Dany Heatley. They’re just a well balanced bunch who play smart hockey. That’s a tough combo to beat in the playoffs. That said, the Penguins have been to the cup finals twice in the past 2 years and they are the defending champs. Crosby will want to make an gold medal sandwich using the Stanley Cup as the bread. He may or may not get there, but Senators won’t be the group to derail him. Penguins in 6.


Western Conference


Colorado Avalanche (8) vs San Jose Sharks (1)

If ever the Sharks were going to make a leap, now’s the time. The Avalanche are 1 of 2 things to me: a team that spent itself to make the playoffs or a team that now that they are in, are just glad to be there. The Sharks are acutely aware of the stigma attached to them and desperately want to shed that label. Is Heatley the guy to help them do it? Time will tell, but I think the Sharks overwhelm the Avalanche, who deserve tons of credit for having the season they have. Sharks in 5.

Nashville Predators (7) vs Chicago Blackhawks (2)

The Blackhawks do not want to be the 2010 version of the 2009 Sharks. They have been an projected Cup contender since the start of the year, and if not for some shaky goaltending, they may be the clear cut choice. But it seems that neither Cristobal Huet or Antti Niemi are in the mood to deliver Cup-calibre goaltending. The Predators are not to be overlooked, as they have solid goaltending with Pekka Rinne and some horses like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They are blue-collar up front, which may rub the Hawks the wrong way. In the end, the Hawks are too strong up front. Blackhawks in 6.

Los Angeles Kings (6) vs Vancouver Canucks (3)

They say that you have to learn to lose before you can win. If true, the Kings and their fans are going to be disappointed (yet should be doing cartwheels for their future is bright!). The Canucks are solid everywhere, and though their defense is not the best, you’ve got to beat one of the game’s best in Luongo. I’m not Roberto’s biggest fan, but the guy can stop pucks.  If the Kings defense, led by youngsters Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can shut down the Sedins (including Art Ross winner Henrik), it will be up to Rob Scuderi (who was terrific with the Penguins last year) and Sean O’Donnell to stop Ryan Kesler. Easier said than done. I don’t want to dismiss the Kings’ attack, nor the Ryan Smyth factor, but to me this series says heartbreak for the Kings. Canucks in 7.

Detroit Red Wings (5) vs Phoenix Coyotes (4)

Don’t let the standings fool you. Yes, the Coyotes were magical this year, and Dave Tippett will win the Jack Adams award, and if he doesn’t there ought to be an investigation. But it was not that long ago that the Red Wings were battling for their playoff lives. But these are the Red Wings. The guys that have forgotten what it’s like to not have a 100 point season. The Wings have shown who they are over the last month, winning 12 of their last 15 games and losing 2 of those 3 remaining games after regulation. As amazing a story as the Coyotes have been all year long, I’ll be stunned if they hang around too long in this series. Bryzgalov will have to be on top of his game, which, given his excellent season may not be crazy at all. Red Wings in 5.

Feel free to weigh in!


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