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Three Thin Arguments

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I’ve managed to stop chuckling barely long enough to bang out another blog post. This time I’m taking aim at three arguments that are currently fan favorites when describing the present-day Habs woes:

  1. Injuries
  2. “They’re still ahead of last year’s pace”
  3. “Look at what happened last year”

Spare me. These are all weak arguments that do nothing more than slather plaster over gaping cracks.

Let’s dismantle the arguments one by one, shall we?

1. Injuries

By now we can all agree that the Canadiens have been the walking wounded this year. Just about every defenseman has been on the shelf…even the guys brought in to replace injured regulars have found their way to the shelf. But we Habs fans tend to look at things with a very narrow lens. When one looks at the full picture, it shows that the Habs are actually in the bottom half of the league when it comes to man-games lost to injuries – that is to say that 16 teams (including 7 playoff teams as of last week) have suffered more man games lost to injuries than the Canadiens have. You can cite the quality over quantity argument if you’d like, but the fact is that Markov and Gorges have both been “replaced” with acquisitions (Wizniewski, Mara, Sopel) and while those 3 likely aren’t quite as good as the other two combined, the drop off isn’t so severe that it should affect the team’s fortunes to any significant degree. Up front, it’s pretty evident that Plekanec, and Cammalleri aren’t themselves, but as I mentioned here, when a player decides to play wounded, he is signing an implicit agreement that he’s good to go, with no excuses. If the player is hurt badly enough to prevent him from being a productive member of the team, stay home. Rest up, and come back when healthy. Having Pacioretty out of the lineup is also a big blow, no doubt. He was the Canadiens most productive forward at the time of his injury, and any time a guy like that is lost, there’s bound to be some pain. However, the loss of Pacioretty does not in any way explain why the Canadiens are 4-7 since losing him, while being badly outplayed in nearly every game over that stretch (the only games in which the Habs looked good, are games in which the opposition was dreadful – Pittsburgh and Minnesota). It also in no way begins to describe the lifeless, emotionless, complacent manner in which the Canadiens have taken to the ice in many games. Are they exhausted? Some guys probably are…in which case we need to ask the coaching staff why some guys were so foolishly overused. Nevertheless, who did the Penguins have to turn to in the absences of Crosby and Malkin?

No matter how you slice it, injuries are not the reason why they’re in such a funk. The Canucks have lost more than a hundred man games above and beyond the Canadiens. While they are certainly deeper offensively, their defensemen have been ravaged WORSE than the Habs all year. This has not prevented the Canucks from not only continuing to play well – but they are running away with the much tougher Western Conference, and will easily win the President’s Trophy as the top poing getting team in the league. They haven’t used injuries as a crutch. What’s that? They play in a weak division? Ok, ok, you got me. Sort of. It is a weak division, but the Canucks have beaten up on everyone all year, regardless where they play. Many teams have sacked up and played on to success - why can’t the Habs? Is it talent? Is it coaching? Uncontrollable circumstances? It’s certainly your right to decide. I simply choose to look at stats, and try to take a bigger look around before making blanket statements.

2. They’re Still Ahead of Last Year’s Pace

Today, the Canadiens sit 5 points ahead of their pace from last season. Is that really relevant? I’m not so sure. Last season, the Canadiens mark of 88 points in 82 games was enough to get them in to the playoffs, but it was the lowest point total for any playoff-bound team since the lockout ended. So if you want to measure this year’s team against a team that had set the bar so very low – more power to you. But let’s continue the charade.

The Habs are up 5 points over last year. Goodie! Again, using a wider lens, here’s how the other seven playoff-bound teams in the Eastern Conference (as of today) stack up in terms of points earned when compared to this point last year:

Philadelphia: +20
Capitals: -13
Bruins: +14
Penguins: +3
Lightning: +21
Canadiens: +5
Sabres: -19
Rangers: +7

Of those teams, only the Capitals and Sabres have had a big drop. Yet most would agree that this year’s Capitals team is much more balanced and well-rounded than last year’s juggernaut. As for the Sabres, well if you’re one of those that leans on injuries as the grand reason behind the struggles, the Sabres can also use that excuse – they sit in 18th in terms of man-games lost to injury, right behind the Canadiens.

Breaking down the numbers further, the average playoff team from this year is 4.75 points ahead of last year’s pace. Also of note is that 4 of them (Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals – 2 division leaders, don’t you know?) have had more injury troubles than Montreal. Can we round up 4.75 to 5? Presto!

So while the Canadiens remain ahead of their pace from last year, it doesn’t make them any better of a team relative to the other playoff teams in the conference.

3. Look at What Happened Last Year

There’s not much that can be said here. The Canadiens surprised everyone with their improbable 7-game upsets over Washington and Pittsburgh. The Canadiens discovered that a suicidal game plan can work – and it did - for a while. Offensively gifted (selfish?) players like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Malkin, Crosby were totally befuddled by their inability to beat Jaroslav Halak. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, it was mostly panic that forced them to shoot from the outside, and they allowed Habs defenders like Hal Gill and Josh Gorges to block a large portion of their shots. Halak, for his part, was unbeatable when he was on, but was awful when he was off. I don’t care what era you’re playing hockey in, when you ask your goalie to stop 40 to 50 shots in the playoffs, against some top players in the world - you’re asking for trouble. When they hit a deep, skilled, big team like the Flyers, they were summarily trounced, being shut out in 3 games of the series.

There’s a well-known adage that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. Hoping for the Habs to get hit again when they go up against the likes of Philly, Boston or Washington may be ok for some, but it doesn’t work for me. Yes, I will be there cheering for the team as hard as I can and willing them to whatever success I’m able to.

But I’m not going to blindly join those who ignore signs of concern, or choose to stay quiet about it since words (of any blogger/journalist/fan/twitterer) are for naught. It doesn’t make one a bandwagon jumper, nor does it make one a bad fan if they choose to shine a light on what they perceive to be some serious issues. Some would rather see nothing but unicorns and ice cream type posts. “Stay positive!” Sorry, that’s not for everyone. Some of us bring a critical eye to the web when it comes to the Habs, and that’s ok. The glass half-full crowd is fine, too. Where the whole house of cards falls apart is when both sides attack each other and resort to personal attacks. It isn’t a sin to expect better from the Habs, who had their eyes on 3rd place in the conference less than 2 weeks ago, only to drift lifelessly in to 8th place without a whimper. Some are satisfied with 8th, and more power to them for it. Others aren’t. We have to live with each other’s viewpoints, or employ the unfollow button (or any other form of avoidance that is available to everyone).

Solutions?

Today, there aren’t any outside of the Habs locker room. This is the team that will enter the playoffs (so indicates this site). The coach is the guy that will rubber stamp the game plan. The players will have to deliver, stifling system be damned, or hit the links early. The solutions lie in the room. That’s why I won’t hit the panic button.

Looking ahead to next season, it is in my view imperative that if he isn’t going to be replaced by a more progressive-thinking coach, somebody needs to convince Jacques Martin to loosen the reigns and allow his offensively-minded players to explore and maximize their talents. It’s been proven that his system sacrifices offense in the name of defense. With a goalie like Carey Price, you can afford to open things up. The Canadiens also desperately need more size up front. Even with a system that focuses on speed, the small forwards would skate themselves to death trying to go around much bigger defensemen before long. They also need size in order to penetrate opposing defenses to make life miserable for the other goalie. It goes without saying that they also need somebody with that nasty demeanor, too. This means that a player or two from the current top 6 is likely going to have to leave to make room. That’s a post for another day. Martin must also improve his in-game management skills. Put players in positions to succeed. Let Halpern, a league leader in faceoffs, take faceoffs whenever possible. Use Subban on the powerplay as often as possible. Use timeouts appropriately. Make discipline a priority. Show some emotion once in a blue moon!

Injuries will always be an issue. That’s not going to go away for anyone, so the Habs need more depth to replace battered bodies when they can’t play. With all due respect to guys like Halpern and Moen, they aren’t top-6 players any day of the week, on any team in the league. The Canadiens are certainly heading in the right direction in terms of depth, but they aren’t there yet.

Listening to call in shows, and reading fans on twitter, it’s as if the sky has already fallen for some. Others simply shrug and wait for mid-April. Again, it’s all good, but for everyone’s sake we all need a thicker skin at this time of year.

Orange Kryptonite

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I’ve developed a mantra for relating the size issue to whether or not the Canadiens win. Assuming skill levels are relatively equal between 2 teams, the saying goes a little like this:

Small can beat big, if big doesn’t play big and small plays big. But small can’t beat big if big decides to play big.

The Canadiens have a size issue right now that doesn’t always manifest itself during regular season play, but almost always does when the chips are down in the playoffs.

Fortunately, the future is looking brighter.

I was one of those people that didn’t want to see Pacioretty in Montreal this season, but not because I didn’t think he was good enough to play at an NHL level, but because I didn’t want Martin to get his hands on him. Martin’s modus operandi gives youngsters scant minutes only to bench them soon after for not producing immediately, or heaven forbid taking a penalty. Turns out I was wrong, and Martin, has seen the light with Max. Or, perhaps Martin needs Max more than Max needs Martin. The Canadiens also have some size in developing players like Lars Eller and Alexander Avtsin.

As far as the Habs & Flyers matchup goes, the Canadiens are a combined 4-9 vs Philly over the past 2 seasons, being outscored 40-25 over those 13 games. Maybe there are those among you who would say that that isn’t such a bad thing, after all, those number break down to an average loss of 3-2 for the Canadiens. Not so bad, right?

The Canadiens played the Flyers pretty evenly last season, going 2-2 and being outscored 10-8.

The real interesting (or damning?) part is looking at the playoff matchup. The Canadiens went down in 5 games, and were not able to generate ANY offense against a physical defense. The Canadiens were outscored 17-7 in the 5 game series, but 5 of the Canadiens goals came in their game 3 victory. Eliminating that game, the Canadiens were outscored 16-2 in the remaining 4 games, being shutout in 3 of those games. Need I remind you that the Flyers had the immortal Michael Leighton in goal? If you’re still keeping score, the average playoff loss for the Canadiens morphed in to an ugly 3.4 goals against versus 1.4 goals for. Eliminating the game 3 victory, and the average loss was an abyssmal 4 goals against to 0.5 goals for. Round up if you like, but that’s still not nearly good enough.

The Flyers are the Habs kryptonite right now. But I think it’s also painfully clear that while the Canadiens smaller forwards have hearts the size of Texas, reach is reach and size is size, especially when the organizational edict is to use that size. The smaller Habs forwards are forced to skate twice as far as they ought to just to get themselves clear of the big Flyers defense, and once they are clear, they more often than not find themselves on the perimeter where a decent goalie needs to only worry about the first save. When Mathieu Darche, God bless him, is the only player able to get near Bobrovski, there’s a problem. True, the Canadiens can cause bigger teams fits when they get their speed game going, but as we’ve seen plenty of times, they are rarely able (or allowed) to use that speed for 60 minutes, night in, night out.

The Canadiens, on most nights are a good team. On some nights they are a very good team (witness the 2-0 win vs the current Cup favorite Canucks), but don’t try and tell me that they’re an elite team. Even with the injuries to Markov, Gorges and Cammalleri, the Canadiens are still a few pieces away from being a bonafide Cup contender. And to be considered a bonafide contender, they will need to get bigger and grittier. Offensive teams like the Capitals and Penguins, while bigger than the Habs, don’t always play bigger than the Habs. The Flyers do, and last night’s loss should serve as a good measuring stick for Gauthier to see where he needs to upgrade his team.

Gauthier Rejects Simon Gagne

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The braying fools are in a tizzy again.

Habs General Manager Pierre Gauthier has made a blunder for the ages! He told Simon Gagné that he wasn’t going to do the equivalent of grabbing his ankles while bending over backwards to have him for 1 year.

Good for Gauthier, says I.

Yes, I know. Gagné is a proven scorer and has been for a decade. He’s also injury prone, but lets not let the facts get in the way of a good piece of fiction.

Gagné and his 5+ million dollar contract was made expendable once the Flyers brought in Nikolai Zherdev. As the story goes, Gagné’s agent phoned Canadiens GM Gauthier before anyone else and asked if there was interest, and if a deal could be made.

“Thanks, but no thanks…no cap room” was the response from the Habs.

Apparently that’s not a good enough answer for many who see the salary cap as nothing but a minor detail. For some, it would have been better to pull the trigger on the deal for the all-star forward and worry about the cap situation later. But is that the smartest thing to do? Gagné was on record as saying that he would have been willing to try Montreal for a year, and see where it goes. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the Canadiens would not have the means next year to sign Gagné to a long-term deal next season. Yes, Markov, and Hamrlik come off the books. Right there is 11 million in cap room saved. There’s also a bunch of RFAs that will come around again, and potential captain Josh Gorges will be seeking a raise. Oh, and don’t the Canadiens do a lot better with Markov in the lineup? That’s right, they do.

In order to make the deal happen now, the Canadiens would have had to send a prospect or a a player that makes next to nothing to Philadelphia for Gagné. The Flyers were not in a position to take on any additional heavy salary. But taking on Gagné also puts the Canadiens well over the cap, and Carey Price (and 2 more depth players) have yet to sign. Wait, it gets stickier. In order to make room for a top-6 forward, Gauthier would then have to move a top-6 forward. We know Gomez, Plekanec, Gionta and Cammalleri aren’t going anywhere. This leaves Benoit Pouliot and Andrei Kostitsyn as potential moveable pieces. Moving Pouliot and his 1.35 million dollar deal isn’t enough to get the Habs back under the cap. So that leaves no other option except moving Andrei Kostitsyn and his 3.25 million dollar deal. “No biggie”, many fans would say. “Good riddance”, many others would say. Not only would Kostitsyn have to go, but probably another lowly paid player in order to bring back the buffer zone under the cap would have to be dealt.

Does moving Kostitsyn make sense in this case? He will be a restricted free agent at the end of next season, and at the age of 26, will be entering his prime. He’s not worth moving now solely to make space for a more expensive player that would not deliver all that much more than Kostitsyn can, if he’s engaged, used properly and healthy. Yes, Gagné is a much more proven scorer than Kostitsyn. Yes, Kostitsyn had only 15 goals last year. That was an off year, an abberation, and everyone should know it. He’s far more likely to net 25 than 15 again, and we all know he could easily hit 30 if things go right for him. Under Jacques Martin’s system, Gagné would be lucky to hit 30 goals – if he stayed healthy. We’ve not even spoken about if Gagné is a fit with the Canadiens. With Gionta and Cammalleri established as snipers on the team, and on the powerplay, is there enough ice for a 3rd highly paid sniper? In a defensive, passive system where the Canadiens play shorthanded more than they do with the man advantage? Probably not.

At next season’s end, we’ll see just how much Gagné wants to play in Montreal. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent, and if he wants to be here so badly, he’ll listen closely to Pierre Gauthier, if Gauthier so chooses to make a pitch for his services.

I don’t truly believe that Simon Gagné wanted to be here, at least not for the long-term. What we’ve been witness to is “public relations” and “saving face”. I believe that Gauthier was prudent in not trying to move mountains to bring in a highly paid, injury prone (yet terrific) player. We’ve been down the road of giving up a lot for the services of a talented Quebec-born player for a single season before, and we saw how that went.

Remember Alex Tanguay?

The Shortest Playoff Preview

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I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t post my thoughts on the playoffs, but I don’t want to keep you all day with in-depth analysis. There’s tons of sites out there that do it better than I can. So I’m keeping it as short as I can, which may be hard given my tendency to ramble endlessly.

Eastern Conference


Montreal Canadiens (8) vs  Washington Capitals (1)

Like Spock in last year’s awesome Star Trek movie, I’m emotionally comprimised on this one. I risk imprisonment by saying this, but there is no reason to pick the Canadiens in this matchup. None.  Either Ovechkin chokes like he did in the Olympics, or Habs goaltending steals the show. Caps were consistently good all year, Habs were consistently inconsistent, and show no sign of getting back on track. Don’t talk to me about Cinderella, or even about the fact that the Habs took 5 of 8 points vs the league leaders. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia Flyers (7) vs New Jersey Devils (2)

The Flyers owned the Devils this year, winning 5 of 6. They won close games and they won by blowout. They won at home, they won on the road. Martin Brodeur has once again played a ton of hockey, appearing in 77 games, plus the Olympics. The Flyers forwards will get in his kitchen, and he’ll fade late in the series, as he has been known to do in recent years. Still, the Devils are the Devils and are a good hockey team. They’ll keep it closer than the season series indicates it should. Flyers in 6.

Boston Bruins (6) vs Buffalo Sabres (3)

Here’s my upset special. The Bruins could have folded after losing just about everyone this year, but especially when Marc Savard got his block knocked off for the umpteenth time. Instead, they went 10-6-2 down the stretch, including winning 4 of their last 5, and picking up a point in their loss. Tuukka Rask may not get any nominations this year, but he’s been as good as any goalie in the league this year. He’s just about made Tim Thomas redundant in Boston (good luck with that contract!). A strong playoff run for Rask will all but cement that. He’ll have to be great in order to best Ryan Miller. As good of a coach as Lindy Ruff is, I think the Bruins pull it out in 7.

Ottawa Senators (5) at Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

I don’t quite know how the Senators managed to keep it together, but they did and deserve credit. Spezza has been reborn, even without Dany Heatley. They’re just a well balanced bunch who play smart hockey. That’s a tough combo to beat in the playoffs. That said, the Penguins have been to the cup finals twice in the past 2 years and they are the defending champs. Crosby will want to make an gold medal sandwich using the Stanley Cup as the bread. He may or may not get there, but Senators won’t be the group to derail him. Penguins in 6.


Western Conference


Colorado Avalanche (8) vs San Jose Sharks (1)

If ever the Sharks were going to make a leap, now’s the time. The Avalanche are 1 of 2 things to me: a team that spent itself to make the playoffs or a team that now that they are in, are just glad to be there. The Sharks are acutely aware of the stigma attached to them and desperately want to shed that label. Is Heatley the guy to help them do it? Time will tell, but I think the Sharks overwhelm the Avalanche, who deserve tons of credit for having the season they have. Sharks in 5.

Nashville Predators (7) vs Chicago Blackhawks (2)

The Blackhawks do not want to be the 2010 version of the 2009 Sharks. They have been an projected Cup contender since the start of the year, and if not for some shaky goaltending, they may be the clear cut choice. But it seems that neither Cristobal Huet or Antti Niemi are in the mood to deliver Cup-calibre goaltending. The Predators are not to be overlooked, as they have solid goaltending with Pekka Rinne and some horses like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They are blue-collar up front, which may rub the Hawks the wrong way. In the end, the Hawks are too strong up front. Blackhawks in 6.

Los Angeles Kings (6) vs Vancouver Canucks (3)

They say that you have to learn to lose before you can win. If true, the Kings and their fans are going to be disappointed (yet should be doing cartwheels for their future is bright!). The Canucks are solid everywhere, and though their defense is not the best, you’ve got to beat one of the game’s best in Luongo. I’m not Roberto’s biggest fan, but the guy can stop pucks.  If the Kings defense, led by youngsters Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can shut down the Sedins (including Art Ross winner Henrik), it will be up to Rob Scuderi (who was terrific with the Penguins last year) and Sean O’Donnell to stop Ryan Kesler. Easier said than done. I don’t want to dismiss the Kings’ attack, nor the Ryan Smyth factor, but to me this series says heartbreak for the Kings. Canucks in 7.

Detroit Red Wings (5) vs Phoenix Coyotes (4)

Don’t let the standings fool you. Yes, the Coyotes were magical this year, and Dave Tippett will win the Jack Adams award, and if he doesn’t there ought to be an investigation. But it was not that long ago that the Red Wings were battling for their playoff lives. But these are the Red Wings. The guys that have forgotten what it’s like to not have a 100 point season. The Wings have shown who they are over the last month, winning 12 of their last 15 games and losing 2 of those 3 remaining games after regulation. As amazing a story as the Coyotes have been all year long, I’ll be stunned if they hang around too long in this series. Bryzgalov will have to be on top of his game, which, given his excellent season may not be crazy at all. Red Wings in 5.

Feel free to weigh in!


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