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Three Thin Arguments

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I’ve managed to stop chuckling barely long enough to bang out another blog post. This time I’m taking aim at three arguments that are currently fan favorites when describing the present-day Habs woes:

  1. Injuries
  2. “They’re still ahead of last year’s pace”
  3. “Look at what happened last year”

Spare me. These are all weak arguments that do nothing more than slather plaster over gaping cracks.

Let’s dismantle the arguments one by one, shall we?

1. Injuries

By now we can all agree that the Canadiens have been the walking wounded this year. Just about every defenseman has been on the shelf…even the guys brought in to replace injured regulars have found their way to the shelf. But we Habs fans tend to look at things with a very narrow lens. When one looks at the full picture, it shows that the Habs are actually in the bottom half of the league when it comes to man-games lost to injuries – that is to say that 16 teams (including 7 playoff teams as of last week) have suffered more man games lost to injuries than the Canadiens have. You can cite the quality over quantity argument if you’d like, but the fact is that Markov and Gorges have both been “replaced” with acquisitions (Wizniewski, Mara, Sopel) and while those 3 likely aren’t quite as good as the other two combined, the drop off isn’t so severe that it should affect the team’s fortunes to any significant degree. Up front, it’s pretty evident that Plekanec, and Cammalleri aren’t themselves, but as I mentioned here, when a player decides to play wounded, he is signing an implicit agreement that he’s good to go, with no excuses. If the player is hurt badly enough to prevent him from being a productive member of the team, stay home. Rest up, and come back when healthy. Having Pacioretty out of the lineup is also a big blow, no doubt. He was the Canadiens most productive forward at the time of his injury, and any time a guy like that is lost, there’s bound to be some pain. However, the loss of Pacioretty does not in any way explain why the Canadiens are 4-7 since losing him, while being badly outplayed in nearly every game over that stretch (the only games in which the Habs looked good, are games in which the opposition was dreadful – Pittsburgh and Minnesota). It also in no way begins to describe the lifeless, emotionless, complacent manner in which the Canadiens have taken to the ice in many games. Are they exhausted? Some guys probably are…in which case we need to ask the coaching staff why some guys were so foolishly overused. Nevertheless, who did the Penguins have to turn to in the absences of Crosby and Malkin?

No matter how you slice it, injuries are not the reason why they’re in such a funk. The Canucks have lost more than a hundred man games above and beyond the Canadiens. While they are certainly deeper offensively, their defensemen have been ravaged WORSE than the Habs all year. This has not prevented the Canucks from not only continuing to play well – but they are running away with the much tougher Western Conference, and will easily win the President’s Trophy as the top poing getting team in the league. They haven’t used injuries as a crutch. What’s that? They play in a weak division? Ok, ok, you got me. Sort of. It is a weak division, but the Canucks have beaten up on everyone all year, regardless where they play. Many teams have sacked up and played on to success - why can’t the Habs? Is it talent? Is it coaching? Uncontrollable circumstances? It’s certainly your right to decide. I simply choose to look at stats, and try to take a bigger look around before making blanket statements.

2. They’re Still Ahead of Last Year’s Pace

Today, the Canadiens sit 5 points ahead of their pace from last season. Is that really relevant? I’m not so sure. Last season, the Canadiens mark of 88 points in 82 games was enough to get them in to the playoffs, but it was the lowest point total for any playoff-bound team since the lockout ended. So if you want to measure this year’s team against a team that had set the bar so very low – more power to you. But let’s continue the charade.

The Habs are up 5 points over last year. Goodie! Again, using a wider lens, here’s how the other seven playoff-bound teams in the Eastern Conference (as of today) stack up in terms of points earned when compared to this point last year:

Philadelphia: +20
Capitals: -13
Bruins: +14
Penguins: +3
Lightning: +21
Canadiens: +5
Sabres: -19
Rangers: +7

Of those teams, only the Capitals and Sabres have had a big drop. Yet most would agree that this year’s Capitals team is much more balanced and well-rounded than last year’s juggernaut. As for the Sabres, well if you’re one of those that leans on injuries as the grand reason behind the struggles, the Sabres can also use that excuse – they sit in 18th in terms of man-games lost to injury, right behind the Canadiens.

Breaking down the numbers further, the average playoff team from this year is 4.75 points ahead of last year’s pace. Also of note is that 4 of them (Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals – 2 division leaders, don’t you know?) have had more injury troubles than Montreal. Can we round up 4.75 to 5? Presto!

So while the Canadiens remain ahead of their pace from last year, it doesn’t make them any better of a team relative to the other playoff teams in the conference.

3. Look at What Happened Last Year

There’s not much that can be said here. The Canadiens surprised everyone with their improbable 7-game upsets over Washington and Pittsburgh. The Canadiens discovered that a suicidal game plan can work – and it did - for a while. Offensively gifted (selfish?) players like Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Malkin, Crosby were totally befuddled by their inability to beat Jaroslav Halak. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, it was mostly panic that forced them to shoot from the outside, and they allowed Habs defenders like Hal Gill and Josh Gorges to block a large portion of their shots. Halak, for his part, was unbeatable when he was on, but was awful when he was off. I don’t care what era you’re playing hockey in, when you ask your goalie to stop 40 to 50 shots in the playoffs, against some top players in the world - you’re asking for trouble. When they hit a deep, skilled, big team like the Flyers, they were summarily trounced, being shut out in 3 games of the series.

There’s a well-known adage that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. Hoping for the Habs to get hit again when they go up against the likes of Philly, Boston or Washington may be ok for some, but it doesn’t work for me. Yes, I will be there cheering for the team as hard as I can and willing them to whatever success I’m able to.

But I’m not going to blindly join those who ignore signs of concern, or choose to stay quiet about it since words (of any blogger/journalist/fan/twitterer) are for naught. It doesn’t make one a bandwagon jumper, nor does it make one a bad fan if they choose to shine a light on what they perceive to be some serious issues. Some would rather see nothing but unicorns and ice cream type posts. “Stay positive!” Sorry, that’s not for everyone. Some of us bring a critical eye to the web when it comes to the Habs, and that’s ok. The glass half-full crowd is fine, too. Where the whole house of cards falls apart is when both sides attack each other and resort to personal attacks. It isn’t a sin to expect better from the Habs, who had their eyes on 3rd place in the conference less than 2 weeks ago, only to drift lifelessly in to 8th place without a whimper. Some are satisfied with 8th, and more power to them for it. Others aren’t. We have to live with each other’s viewpoints, or employ the unfollow button (or any other form of avoidance that is available to everyone).

Solutions?

Today, there aren’t any outside of the Habs locker room. This is the team that will enter the playoffs (so indicates this site). The coach is the guy that will rubber stamp the game plan. The players will have to deliver, stifling system be damned, or hit the links early. The solutions lie in the room. That’s why I won’t hit the panic button.

Looking ahead to next season, it is in my view imperative that if he isn’t going to be replaced by a more progressive-thinking coach, somebody needs to convince Jacques Martin to loosen the reigns and allow his offensively-minded players to explore and maximize their talents. It’s been proven that his system sacrifices offense in the name of defense. With a goalie like Carey Price, you can afford to open things up. The Canadiens also desperately need more size up front. Even with a system that focuses on speed, the small forwards would skate themselves to death trying to go around much bigger defensemen before long. They also need size in order to penetrate opposing defenses to make life miserable for the other goalie. It goes without saying that they also need somebody with that nasty demeanor, too. This means that a player or two from the current top 6 is likely going to have to leave to make room. That’s a post for another day. Martin must also improve his in-game management skills. Put players in positions to succeed. Let Halpern, a league leader in faceoffs, take faceoffs whenever possible. Use Subban on the powerplay as often as possible. Use timeouts appropriately. Make discipline a priority. Show some emotion once in a blue moon!

Injuries will always be an issue. That’s not going to go away for anyone, so the Habs need more depth to replace battered bodies when they can’t play. With all due respect to guys like Halpern and Moen, they aren’t top-6 players any day of the week, on any team in the league. The Canadiens are certainly heading in the right direction in terms of depth, but they aren’t there yet.

Listening to call in shows, and reading fans on twitter, it’s as if the sky has already fallen for some. Others simply shrug and wait for mid-April. Again, it’s all good, but for everyone’s sake we all need a thicker skin at this time of year.

Look What You’ve Done, Gary

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If you follow the pulse of NHL chatter on Twitter, you “learn” a lot of “things” about the wonderful Commissioner of the NHL. For example, did you know:

  • That Gary Bettman hates Canada with the burning rage of the dual Tatooine suns?
  • That Gary Bettman is pulling strings – as I type this – to ensure that the Penguins, Capitals, Coyotes, and Red Wings, are all going to win the Cup this year?
  • That Gary Bettman has Sidney Crosby pyjamas, a Sidney Crosby poster above his bed, and a picture of Sidney Crosby in a heart-shaped locket around his neck?

That’s just the tip of the iceberg, and as much of a lie telling doofus as Gary Bettman is, clearly much of the hate is off-the-wall. He’s brought it on himself, but sometimes we get a little ahead of ourselves.

But the League’s top executive, and his team of cronies (hi, Colin! hi, Bill!) has really done it this time. For years fans have been waiting for the NHL to do something about the growing number of head shots and concussions, to little or no avail. Many assumed that if Sidney Crosby were to ever go down with a head injury, the league’s head office inhabitants would turn themselves inside-out in order to implement some sort of rule to curb headshots. They can’t lose the poster-child, can they? Surely the NHL’s offices would collapse like Barad-Dur if the Golden Boy were to miss extended action, right?

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Lo, and behold that time is upon us.

As you know by now, Sidney Crosby was clobbered by David Steckel and Victor Hedman in consecutive games shortly after the calendar rolled over to 2011, and has yet to return to action. In fact, he has yet to resume light exercise. Whispers are now gaining steam, leading Globe and Mail columnist (and my favorite sports journalist / sports writer) Stephen Brunt to reveal on the Team 990′s airwaves that he has heard that Crosby may not be back at all this year.

Perfect. The NHL’s best player, the face of the league and the spearhead of many marketing efforts *may* miss the playoffs (and scuttle Bettman’s chances to further line the rafters at the Pens’ shiny new arena with Cup banners). Oops!

I’m not saying that any kind of legislation or rule would have protected the league’s top player, who was in the midst of one of the best seasons we’ve seen in a while, from injury. What I am saying is that now the discussion has just became a lot more complicated for Gary and his band of merry incompetents. Complicated, not because the solutions are difficult to pin down and implement (they are complex) but because he’s brought a mess to his doorstep that was entirely avoidable by merely taking their collective heads out of the sand. It’s better to do something than to do nothing. The blindside hit rule (rule 48) is a nice start, but it’s only that – a start. That the refs still can’t consistently enforce that rule points to the fact that the league really isn’t all that focused on making things better. The way the NHL has approached this issue, they’ve made it sound like curbing head shots is akin to achieving time travel. Maybe Emmett “Doc” Brown is available for consultation? My money is on the NHL cleverly ambushing him on October 21, 2015, since they’ll know exactly where he will be.

For argument’s sake, if they decide to crack down and institute real measures (rules, consequences, assessments, treatments) to get rid of head shots and lessen the severity of concussions, people that despise Crosby and Bettman (there are plenty in both camps) will say it was only done to protect the “Chosen One”. Bruins fans in particular may bristle at this after one of their stars, Marc Savard was decimated by Matt Cooke. If the boneheads continue to drag their heels (as well as their knuckles), they’ll be accused of not caring about the stars, the fans, the product, or the game. His continued reluctance to apply common sense in the face of a terrible rash of recent head injuries has now landed him squarely between a rock and a hard place. Maybe Gary can have a sit-down with a really brave guy who knows a thing or two about just that.

If I were Bettman, I’d rather suffer the consequences of being labeled as the former instead of the latter. He’s gone way beyond the point of getting credit for being “proactive” on the issue.

Your move, Gary.

Monday Musings – November 1st

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I know you were all listening live, but for those of you who didn’t here’s the audio from my time spent at CJAD last Sunday (October 24th). I, along with Kamal Panesar from Habsaddict.com took part in the blogger panel on the Habs Show, hosted by Barry Morgan. It was a ton of fun, a privelege to be asked to take part, and neat to see behind the curtain of radio magic.

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First off, I have to apologize to Calgary Flames fans. No, not for insinuating a couple weeks back that the wheels had already fallen off (they haven’t, and they’ve decent with a 6-5 record), but for making the Flames lose to the Capitals on Saturday night. Yep, it’s my fault. You see, I was channel surfing (mostly waiting for SNL to start) when I flipped over to CBC. The score was 2-1 Calgary, early in the second period. Within 3 seconds of tuning in, Ovechkin struck to tie the score. 12 seconds later, Ovechkin put the Caps on top. I continued flipping during commercials only to land back on the game a few minutes later. Guess what happened? Mike Green took a sweet pass and beat Kiprusoff to double the Capitals lead, and douse the Flames for the night. The next time I looked, it was 7-2 for Washington and I felt bad for clearly ruining the evening for many a Calgarian. Then again, I probably made a great many Caps fans happy at the same time.

So I’m sorry, and you’re welcome.

I have to say though, when things aren’t going well for the Flames, the look on Brent Sutter’s face resembles that of someone who’s been licking urinal pucks. Lighten up, Brent.

Danny Brière, that little rat, cross checked an opponent in the face. I know he’s small, and was being picked on, but that’s inexcusable, as all intentional stickwork is, and should be suspended. He’s been suspended twice in his career already, and sitting him down for at least 3 games should be a no-brainer in this scenario. Here’s the video:

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Did you catch the last play of the Alouettes / Argonauts game on Friday night? Probably the most bizarre ending to a football game that you’ll ever see. I can’t even describe it properly, so I’ll only suggest that you check it out here.

Aaaaaand with that, I’m done talking about the CFL until the Division Finals.

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Somebody needs to tell me why Miami Dolphins Head Coach Tony Sparano goes ballistic when his team settles for a field goal, but stands like a statue when they score a touchdown that essentially salts away the game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a coach go wild for field goals like Sparano does. Ever. It would actually be funny if it weren’t so mystifying. Meanwhile, Dan Carpenter has gone 10/10 in field goals in the past 2 weeks, which would also be funny if it wasn’t so alarming. The Dolphins need to find a way to punch the ball in to the endzone more often.

You never want to see someone get their clock cleaned, but you have to wonder if Brett Favre had it coming. Whether he’s passionate about playing, too stubborn to step aside, or too proud to watch his consecutive games played streak die, you have to wonder if the football gods are starting to fix their glare on Favre. He was caught under the chin late in the game vs the Patriots and was taken to the dressing room on the cart. Seeing him curled up in a near-fetal position certainly isn’t funny, but it was probably overdue. No doubt he’ll be back behind center next Sunday, even if his brains are scrambled and his jaw is shattered. Makes you cringe wondering what the football gods will have in store next.

It was also fantastic to see the NFC finally win one over the AFC, especially when that AFC team is the rotten Jets. In the “Teams that Favre used to play for Bowl”, the Packers shut out the Jets AT HOME. That should make for a pleasant Monday morning in New York.

I’m never one to have pity for a divisional opponent, but I really do feel bad for the Bills. Nobody thought they’d even get a sniff at being competitive this season, but to lose in back-to-back weeks in overtime, on the road, against superior opponents, in games they could have (should have?) won just makes you shake your head. Given their misfortunes in the Super Bowl, and chronic inability to field a decent team in recent years, I wonder what the people of Buffalo have done to deserve this? Usually the Sabres are around to ease the suffering, but even they seem intent on sucking this year.

Congratulations to Ladanian Tomlinson, who joins Walter Payton as the only the second player with 13,000 yards rushing, and 4,000 yards receiving in their career. That’s incredible, and LT isn’t done yet. In fact, he’s been reborn this season with the Jets. He’s reminding everyone of how good he was in the early to middle part of this decade. I’ve never seen a running back as good as Tomlinson was about 5-6 years ago.

When did the Raiders go from pathetic to average? I like them better when they were a joke, but I’ll settle for the Cowboys. Watching them sink lower and lower in a sea of embarrassment is a sight to behold. I can’t wait for Mount Jones to erupt.

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With a game 4 victory, the San Francisco Giants return home with a 3-1 series lead and their ace, Tim Lincecum going in game 5. How fitting. It appears as though the Rangers should have saved some of the runs they used to trounce the Yankees for use in the World Series. Methinks there will be a parade in San Fran in the very near future.

Predictable, Scripted and Contrived. We Will All Be Watching

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Ah, the Winter Classic. The outdoors, middle of winter, the fresh air…hopefully some idyllic snowflakes (that goalies will invariably use to buttress their creases). In an attempt to evoke childhood memories and the roots of the game, the NHL has found some secret sauce with the now annual New Year’s Day outdoor game. On a day that is still ruled by College Football, the “lowly” NHL has managed to get itself on the radar with their ode to all things folksy about the game.

Personally, I’ve never been overly impressed with these games. The settings have been neat. The games for the most part, have not. Try as the NHL may with its well-produced marketing efforts, I’ve never been fully captivated with these games aside from the fact that it’s hockey on a day where I’m usually trying to cure a pounding headache.

Now I know that the NHL is a business and with their latest sacred cow wants to milk these things for all they are worth…but could something be as predictable, scripted and contrived as a Penguins vs Capitals matchup? I know you want to showcase your best when you have the spotlight, but come on. Sure, “Sid the Kid” and “Alex the Gr8″ qualify as the best that the NHL can offer, but when things as predictable as this come to pass, I just want someone to pass me the bucket. Can you imagine how much hype will surround this event? Unless you’re a Penguins fan, Capitals fan, employee of the network carrying the event, an NHL employee, or a hockey-loving vacuum (even this may be a stretch for those of you who love all things hockey), you may want to invest in a bilge pump to keep from drowning in the thick gravy we’re all about to be hosed with. Note to the NHL (and especially to NBC): there ARE other stars and other teams in your league.

Frankly, I’m surprised at my own reaction. I figured I’d enjoy something like this. Maybe I will, but right now my impression is that this feels manufactured and vacuous. A Crosby / Ovechkin matchup would sell at any point, in any year but I believe that the NHL dropped the ball by announcing this so quickly. I have a suggestion, albeit a moot one. Hear me out, but I think with the hockey we are about to be treated to, the NHL would have been wise to wait and see how the Cup Finals played out and thought of concocting a Toews / Richards rematch for their next Winter Classic. The 2 best players in the league *today* may not be Crosby and Ovechkin, but Richards and Toews. You can certainly make that argument.

With the plotlines that engulf this upcoming series (Hawks in 6, by the way), there could have been an air of authenticity and genuine nastiness to this affair. With Sidney and Alex, I get the sense that the only plotlines would be “can Crosby can channel his shinny hockey childhood once again to topple his nemesis?” or “can Ovechkin can gain a measure of redemption against the kid who has a Stanley Cup, Gold Medal and Maurice Richard trophy to his recent collection?” It just feels tired, uninspired and lazy to me. A weak attempt to add 8 minutes to the feature-length DVD that we’re sure to see one day about the Crosby/Ovechkin rivalry. Apparently the legends are true. NBC, at least when it comes to hockey, really does stand for “Nobody But Crosby”. I do like Crosby. A lot in fact. But there has never been a moment in NHL history where so many GREAT young stars are filling out rosters everywhere.

I admit, it could be a great game, and I always hope that it is. But we’ve also seen that outdoor conditions can severely affect a player or team that relies on skill to succeed. Anything other than an offensive show would probably leave most fans feeling cheated. By January 2nd, I could end up eating my words, and I hope I do. It might be a great game in a great setting. But for now, with the calendar about to roll over to June, this leaves me completely indifferent. But like most of you, I will gladly watch, simply because we all love the game and we don’t want to miss a thing.

I haven’t even touched on the Canadiens – Flames matchup that will take place in February in Calgary at McMahon Stadium.

My reaction to this game is “Why?”

I’ve never been to Calgary, but I hear it’s pretty cold and unpleasant in February. I don’t know why this game needs to happen. Wouldn’t the Oilers or Leafs or Canucks or Senators (ok, not the Senators) be as good a matchup? Again, I’m not opposed to this, but I just don’t get it. Please sell me on this, unless you share my opinion. If the Canadiens are to play an outdoor game, it should be at Percival Molson Stadium, where the CFL’s Alouettes play. Now THAT would be a setting I could get excited about. Aside from the setting, what’s the draw to this game? The return of Cammalleri to Calgary? Where he spent one season? If it was a marketing angle in the least, it’s already been done…

How do you feel about these games? Is the NHL going to the well too often? Is the whole thing too formulaic? Please leave your thoughts below, and thanks for reading!

There’s Something to be Said for Blind Faith

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I confess, I didn’t believe, either. On this very blog I said the Canadiens would bow out in 6 to the Capitals. Don’t get me wrong, I took no joy in saying that. It pained me very much, actually. And it pained me to think that I was being generous in giving the Canadiens 6 games. That was my stupid brain talking. By the end of game 3, I was hurting, but took solace in the fact that I had seen this coming. That it was merely inevitability setting in. It made the losing easier to swallow. In stark contrast, earlier in the month, I wondered about the next steps in the Canadiens rebuilding plan, and mentioned that I had an eerily good feeling about the Canadiens. That was my heart talking, and it was before the final week of the year that saw the Canadiens clumsily stumble in to the playoffs.

The only common ground between my head and heart was that there was no way that the Canadiens would be embarrassed by the Capitals, despite the apparent mismatch. They hang in there, “make us proud” for not being crushed like everyone said they would, and then we’d talk about how great that was. Then the requisite “next year the team will be better talk” would resume.

While the vast majority of bloggers, experts, and even ardent Habs fans took the Capitals, there were those who stayed with the Canadiens. Whether because they refused to pick against their team, or because they truly thought they would win, I’ll tip my hat to those who picked the Habs from the start. I did that last year, mostly because I was too afraid of what I would see in the mirror if I chose the Bruins. So I took the Canadiens to upset the Boston. My loyalty was rewarded with an embarrassing 4-game sweep in which the Canadiens barely put up a fight against their forever rival.

So I was done with the blind faith thing. I was always the type to take the Habs no matter what, and more often than not, the Canadiens would find a way to flame out in a spectacular way. This year really marks the first time that I decided to go with my brain, and I was rewarded for it with a lesson in eating crow. Best tasting crow I’ve ever had, but it just goes to show that in the playoffs, and in the first round in particular, you just never know.

Here’s what NOBODY can say they saw coming: that the Habs would block ten million shots, and that Halak would instantly make himself a folk hero, if he wasn’t one already. The defense that ran around their own zone all season long (literally) looked like the total opposite of themselves, against the best team in the league no less. They were poised, tough, effective, efficient and played with heart. Even though the number of shots against was sky-high, and even though many of those shots were of the extremely dangerous variety, the defense really did a good job of limiting second and third opportunities.

While most of the credit belongs to Halak and the defense, the forwards are not undeserving of praise either. Gainey’s acquisitions all paid off big dividends during the series. Even Max Lapierre reappeared after an 85 game slumber (with sporadic fits of wakefulness). Something got in to these guys. There really was a flip that was switched on, and the Capitals were completely unable to turn it off.

Now as we look forward to tomorrow night’s game vs the Penguins, I find myself trying to break down the series. The heart, as always, says to go with the Habs. But there’s the stupid brain again. It’s saying that Crosby has shown over the past year why he is without a doubt the best player in the world. Not the flashiest (though he does cast a considerable glare of his own), but the best. He’s more clutch than those mentioned alongside him as best in the world. Even if the Habs manage to ensnare Crosby in some sort of quagmire, they have that bull named Evgeni Malkin to deal with. You remember him, don’t you? Last year’s Conn Smythe trophy winner? Of course you do. While he’s not the focalpoint of the Penguins attack, he can certainly take over a game on his own. Then there’s Jordin Staal. And Max Talbot. And Bill Guerin…all guys who still have the stink of Lord Stanley all over them. They obviously know what it takes to win. This is a good matchup for the Penguins, but are they still as hungry? You see how the brain louses everything up? Why should I even entertain the thought of the Habs losing after what we just saw? If the Habs beat the Caps, they can be the Penguins, right? Counting intangibles is tough, and while you’ll find plenty of intangibles on any Cup winning club, the Canadiens have shown that they aren’t without the je ne sais quoi qualities, either.

So I’m reverting back to form. I’m going to be a believer in this series. If they get down, I’ll believe that they’ll crawl back. If they crumble, I’ll believe that they’ll bounce back.

The Shortest Playoff Preview

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I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t post my thoughts on the playoffs, but I don’t want to keep you all day with in-depth analysis. There’s tons of sites out there that do it better than I can. So I’m keeping it as short as I can, which may be hard given my tendency to ramble endlessly.

Eastern Conference


Montreal Canadiens (8) vs  Washington Capitals (1)

Like Spock in last year’s awesome Star Trek movie, I’m emotionally comprimised on this one. I risk imprisonment by saying this, but there is no reason to pick the Canadiens in this matchup. None.  Either Ovechkin chokes like he did in the Olympics, or Habs goaltending steals the show. Caps were consistently good all year, Habs were consistently inconsistent, and show no sign of getting back on track. Don’t talk to me about Cinderella, or even about the fact that the Habs took 5 of 8 points vs the league leaders. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia Flyers (7) vs New Jersey Devils (2)

The Flyers owned the Devils this year, winning 5 of 6. They won close games and they won by blowout. They won at home, they won on the road. Martin Brodeur has once again played a ton of hockey, appearing in 77 games, plus the Olympics. The Flyers forwards will get in his kitchen, and he’ll fade late in the series, as he has been known to do in recent years. Still, the Devils are the Devils and are a good hockey team. They’ll keep it closer than the season series indicates it should. Flyers in 6.

Boston Bruins (6) vs Buffalo Sabres (3)

Here’s my upset special. The Bruins could have folded after losing just about everyone this year, but especially when Marc Savard got his block knocked off for the umpteenth time. Instead, they went 10-6-2 down the stretch, including winning 4 of their last 5, and picking up a point in their loss. Tuukka Rask may not get any nominations this year, but he’s been as good as any goalie in the league this year. He’s just about made Tim Thomas redundant in Boston (good luck with that contract!). A strong playoff run for Rask will all but cement that. He’ll have to be great in order to best Ryan Miller. As good of a coach as Lindy Ruff is, I think the Bruins pull it out in 7.

Ottawa Senators (5) at Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

I don’t quite know how the Senators managed to keep it together, but they did and deserve credit. Spezza has been reborn, even without Dany Heatley. They’re just a well balanced bunch who play smart hockey. That’s a tough combo to beat in the playoffs. That said, the Penguins have been to the cup finals twice in the past 2 years and they are the defending champs. Crosby will want to make an gold medal sandwich using the Stanley Cup as the bread. He may or may not get there, but Senators won’t be the group to derail him. Penguins in 6.


Western Conference


Colorado Avalanche (8) vs San Jose Sharks (1)

If ever the Sharks were going to make a leap, now’s the time. The Avalanche are 1 of 2 things to me: a team that spent itself to make the playoffs or a team that now that they are in, are just glad to be there. The Sharks are acutely aware of the stigma attached to them and desperately want to shed that label. Is Heatley the guy to help them do it? Time will tell, but I think the Sharks overwhelm the Avalanche, who deserve tons of credit for having the season they have. Sharks in 5.

Nashville Predators (7) vs Chicago Blackhawks (2)

The Blackhawks do not want to be the 2010 version of the 2009 Sharks. They have been an projected Cup contender since the start of the year, and if not for some shaky goaltending, they may be the clear cut choice. But it seems that neither Cristobal Huet or Antti Niemi are in the mood to deliver Cup-calibre goaltending. The Predators are not to be overlooked, as they have solid goaltending with Pekka Rinne and some horses like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They are blue-collar up front, which may rub the Hawks the wrong way. In the end, the Hawks are too strong up front. Blackhawks in 6.

Los Angeles Kings (6) vs Vancouver Canucks (3)

They say that you have to learn to lose before you can win. If true, the Kings and their fans are going to be disappointed (yet should be doing cartwheels for their future is bright!). The Canucks are solid everywhere, and though their defense is not the best, you’ve got to beat one of the game’s best in Luongo. I’m not Roberto’s biggest fan, but the guy can stop pucks.  If the Kings defense, led by youngsters Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can shut down the Sedins (including Art Ross winner Henrik), it will be up to Rob Scuderi (who was terrific with the Penguins last year) and Sean O’Donnell to stop Ryan Kesler. Easier said than done. I don’t want to dismiss the Kings’ attack, nor the Ryan Smyth factor, but to me this series says heartbreak for the Kings. Canucks in 7.

Detroit Red Wings (5) vs Phoenix Coyotes (4)

Don’t let the standings fool you. Yes, the Coyotes were magical this year, and Dave Tippett will win the Jack Adams award, and if he doesn’t there ought to be an investigation. But it was not that long ago that the Red Wings were battling for their playoff lives. But these are the Red Wings. The guys that have forgotten what it’s like to not have a 100 point season. The Wings have shown who they are over the last month, winning 12 of their last 15 games and losing 2 of those 3 remaining games after regulation. As amazing a story as the Coyotes have been all year long, I’ll be stunned if they hang around too long in this series. Bryzgalov will have to be on top of his game, which, given his excellent season may not be crazy at all. Red Wings in 5.

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