If it was a secret, it’s not anymore. Actually, it was never a secret; the signs were there from the very beginning, but most chose to ignore them.

For those still unaware, the Canadiens season has been, and remains in jeopardy. Truthfully, it’s been on life support since Halloween. No, that’s not a typo. On the morning of November 1st, the Canadiens were in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, a mere 2 points out of a playoff spot, and very few fans were concerned with the situation (I was). If that isn’t grounds for “life support”, then let’s call it a gestating illness. There was a lot of nonchalance among the fanbase, despite what historical precedent showed to be the harsh reality. That reality said that being outside of the top 8 on November 1st meant a tough climb to get back in. Yes, November 1st is awfully early to pronounce any conclusions for how the season will end, but history was already against the Habs.

Fast forward to January 2012, and the Canadiens have dug themselves down to 12th place in the East, 7 big, fat, bloated points out of the playoff picture. In short: they went in the wrong direction. If things were unsettling back on Halloween, they must be bleak now. Or are they?

Unbeaten in 2012 (nyuk nyuk nyuk), the Habs appear to be a new team. As Will pointed out in his piece yesterday: “early returns suggest this two-game winning streak is more than just a fluke“. Two games is certainly a short sample, but the attitude and tempo appears to be contagious. They no longer sit on leads, they no longer have poor body language, and they no longer look like the stifled, frustrated, crippled group they were under former Coach Jacques Martin. And not to be overlooked: they are no longer boring to watch. We all reserve to right to reevaluate our opinions after more games against tougher teams are in the books, but we are starting to see the team that we thought we had when it was assembled back in 2009 (and tinkered with ever since).

The big question today is whether or not this modest turnaround is “too little, too late”. The Canadiens need to rack up 53 points in their remaining 41 games to end the regular season with 92 points, which represents the average threshold needed to make the playoffs since the lockout ended. Not to be misplaced is the fact that the 8th place team is currently on pace for 94 points, making things yet again harder. The aforementioned 53pts in 41 games is a win percentage of .646 over the second half of the season. If that imposing number wasn’t enough, they have to do their damndest to earn those points in regulation and not allow Eastern opponents to grab “loser points”. That would only make the Canadiens’ task tougher still. Simply put, the Canadiens need to go at least 27-14 from here until the final siren blares on game 82. That would represent quite the reversal of fortunes, and would still only likely reap them the 8th slot in the East – if that. Making things even harder is that the Canadiens need to leapfrog 3 teams, or hope that other teams completely fall apart. The Panthers, Leafs, Sens, and now massively depleted Penguins are all common targets to have the trap door open under their feet. As of yet, none have officially fallen out of the playoff picture, and even if they do, there’s no guarantee that the Canadiens will play well enough to surpass them. Interesting to note that in the past 3 days, the Leafs beat the Wings, Senators took 3 of 4 points from the Flyers, and the Panthers beat the Canucks. If those teams are going to give up the ghost, they aren’t going to do so quietly.

Here’s where The Conundrum rears its ugly head. Is it worth it for the Canadiens to play each of their remaining games like it’s the 7th game of the Cup finals? How much would they have left in the tank for the playoffs? Sure they’d be battle-tested, but they’d also be incredibly weary. Is it worth it for Pierre Gauthier to be a buyer at the trade deadline? Is it worth it to dump assets in a potentially futile quest to grab the 8th in the East? And given that only one Cup winning team since 1994 entered the playoffs without the benefit of home ice advantage, is all of the back-breaking effort really worth it? I would say no, it is not worth it. I would hate to go through a Habs-less spring, but this hamster wheel of mediocrity has to stop. Stakeholders in the team might disagree, as would those fans who say that “you can’t win the Cup if you don’t make the playoffs“. Personally, I would allow nature to take its course, and I would trade away pending UFAs (unless Kostitsyn can be signed at the right price) for future prospects and draft choices. In the cap era, having good, young talent at a cheap price is the only way to have a perennial contender.

But what do April tee times mean for “interim” Head Coach Randy Cunneyworth? Quite simply, it would likely mean his termination, but is that not already inevitable? He’s already been thrown to the wolves by his Owner and by his General Manager. Short of long playoff run, I’m not sure that anything can secure his future as Coach of the Habs. As much as I like Cunneyworth, and as much as I believe he deserves every single opportunity to be this team’s long-term Head Coach, there’s every reason to believe that the Canadiens brass will bow to pressure from narrow minded media types and extremist fringe elements and opt yet again to take the path of appeasement rather than institute a meritocracy. That means that Cunneyworth’s future as a Coach is elsewhere, and for that reason I see no reason to sacrifice key parts of the future for what is already a virtual mission impossible.

What’s your take? Go for broke, or look to a brighter future, albeit one minus Randy Cunneyworth?

Bonus question: What if the players, as a group, tell Molson that they adore Randy Cunneyworth and want him to stick around permanently? What then? Appease the nose-out-of-joint lunatics, or keep the team happy?